Ok here goes then. Assuming a stacking off rate of 50%...
5.6% of the time we
flop a monstro with 90%
equity
6.9% of the time we
flop a 12+
draw with 50%
equity
0.056*0.9*0.5= 0.0252
+
0.069*0.5*0.5= 0.014
= 0.0392
or ~4% expectation of effective stacks
BUT we can also continue alot with our smaller draws ie
oesd or
fd. Odds for that is ~19.1%. Taking out the combo draws we've already counted thats 19.1%-6.9%= 12.2% with ~35%
equity.
0.122*0.35*0.5= 0.02135 or ~2% expectation of effective stacks
Adding these its clear we have a ~6% overall expectation of effective stacks.
Obviously now we need to adjust these figures for
position, as clearly we will be
able to
extract more of the
effective stack IP, and less of it OOP. Being conservative lets say your 25% more effective at getting stacks IP and 25% less effective OOP.
Thats ~7.5% expectation IP and ~4.5% OOP
I'
m being asked to
call $2.8 for access to an effective $24.95
stack
thats 2.8/24.95=~11.2%
So if we were HU here this would be a clear
fold.
But there is another
stack involved too. Since the other guy covers me the
effective stack is $30.79
thats 2.8/30.79*100=~9.1%
So even 120bb
deep its still a
fold if we were HU vs this guy.
But what about my hand where I'
m playing both at once?
Well it seems obvious that we need to get to (11.2+9.1)/2=~10% expectation. We already have 7.5% so basically we need the 2nd player to have a
stack off rate of at least 1/3 the first player (1/3 of 7.5% would be 2.5%, adding to get 10%).
So we look at his
stats. He seems quite
loose so its reasonable to assume hes going to be stacking off at least that often.
And remember we haven't even counted the times we make a
pair and take down the pot with it! (As this is what happened in my specific hand I have to assume it happens a non trivial amount of the time, more often as villains 3bet
range gets wider)
Feel free to
check my maths or assumptions.