Select Page
Poker Forum
Over 1,292,000 Posts!
Poker ForumBeginners Circle

SC in multiway 3bet pot

Results 1 to 43 of 43

Hybrid View

Previous Post Previous Post   Next Post Next Post
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    8,697
    Location
    soaking up ethanol, moving on up
    the first call pre is only really ok if blinds are passive fish, especially bb. Fold to the 3b pre and it's not even close.
    As played it's super-easy bet-fold about $6 repping die Damen

    as for having done research - you should probably try and explain why your calls are both good now, you'll learn a whole bunch more that way. Like, if you understand what you read then the explanation will be easy. It may also prevent you spewing a whole bunch of money with scs over the next 100k hands...
  2. #2
    Ok here goes then. Assuming a stacking off rate of 50%...

    5.6% of the time we flop a monstro with 90% equity
    6.9% of the time we flop a 12+ draw with 50% equity
    0.056*0.9*0.5= 0.0252
    +
    0.069*0.5*0.5= 0.014
    = 0.0392
    or ~4% expectation of effective stacks

    BUT we can also continue alot with our smaller draws ie oesd or fd. Odds for that is ~19.1%. Taking out the combo draws we've already counted thats 19.1%-6.9%= 12.2% with ~35% equity.
    0.122*0.35*0.5= 0.02135 or ~2% expectation of effective stacks

    Adding these its clear we have a ~6% overall expectation of effective stacks.

    Obviously now we need to adjust these figures for position, as clearly we will be able to extract more of the effective stack IP, and less of it OOP. Being conservative lets say your 25% more effective at getting stacks IP and 25% less effective OOP.

    Thats ~7.5% expectation IP and ~4.5% OOP

    I'm being asked to call $2.8 for access to an effective $24.95 stack
    thats 2.8/24.95=~11.2%
    So if we were HU here this would be a clear fold.
    But there is another stack involved too. Since the other guy covers me the effective stack is $30.79
    thats 2.8/30.79*100=~9.1%
    So even 120bb deep its still a fold if we were HU vs this guy.

    But what about my hand where I'm playing both at once? Well it seems obvious that we need to get to (11.2+9.1)/2=~10% expectation. We already have 7.5% so basically we need the 2nd player to have a stack off rate of at least 1/3 the first player (1/3 of 7.5% would be 2.5%, adding to get 10%).
    So we look at his stats. He seems quite loose so its reasonable to assume hes going to be stacking off at least that often.

    And remember we haven't even counted the times we make a pair and take down the pot with it! (As this is what happened in my specific hand I have to assume it happens a non trivial amount of the time, more often as villains 3bet range gets wider)

    Feel free to check my maths or assumptions.
  3. #3
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    8,697
    Location
    soaking up ethanol, moving on up
    Quote Originally Posted by Viscaro View Post
    Ok here goes then. Assuming a stacking off rate of 50%...

    5.6% of the time we flop a monstro with 90% equity
    6.9% of the time we flop a 12+ draw with 50% equity
    0.056*0.9*0.5= 0.0252
    +
    0.069*0.5*0.5= 0.014
    = 0.0392
    or ~4% expectation of effective stacks

    BUT we can also continue alot with our smaller draws ie oesd or fd. Odds for that is ~19.1%. Taking out the combo draws we've already counted thats 19.1%-6.9%= 12.2% with ~35% equity.
    0.122*0.35*0.5= 0.02135 or ~2% expectation of effective stacks

    Adding these its clear we have a ~6% overall expectation of effective stacks.

    Obviously now we need to adjust these figures for position, as clearly we will be able to extract more of the effective stack IP, and less of it OOP. Being conservative lets say your 25% more effective at getting stacks IP and 25% less effective OOP.

    Thats ~7.5% expectation IP and ~4.5% OOP

    I'm being asked to call $2.8 for access to an effective $24.95 stack
    thats 2.8/24.95=~11.2%
    So if we were HU here this would be a clear fold.
    But there is another stack involved too. Since the other guy covers me the effective stack is $30.79
    thats 2.8/30.79*100=~9.1%
    So even 120bb deep its still a fold if we were HU vs this guy.

    But what about my hand where I'm playing both at once? Well it seems obvious that we need to get to (11.2+9.1)/2=~10% expectation. We already have 7.5% so basically we need the 2nd player to have a stack off rate of at least 1/3 the first player (1/3 of 7.5% would be 2.5%, adding to get 10%).
    So we look at his stats. He seems quite loose so its reasonable to assume hes going to be stacking off at least that often.

    And remember we haven't even counted the times we make a pair and take down the pot with it! (As this is what happened in my specific hand I have to assume it happens a non trivial amount of the time, more often as villains 3bet range gets wider)

    Feel free to check my maths or assumptions.
    cool, well summarised
    only a couple of things to comment on
    1 = you're basically giving sb a range of exactly AA when you start doing things like this. Add KK and think about the effect of ace high flops on villain's desire to stack off. Add AKs and think about villain's desire to stack off on boards he misses (the ones that you manage to miss too)
    2 = this analysis ignores reverse implied odds situations -> i prefer better than the 5-10 you're referring to.

    based on the optimistic 50% and the rio spots you're kind of ignoring I think pre-flop is closer than you do.

    anyway, there's pretty good consensus on flop bet-fold and that seems to be what you did. Hope your sizing was smart

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •