10NL - JJ when ugly turn hits

[kiwiMark]

Was fairly early on so only have 16 hands on villain, over which he's been running 19/13.

Pre and flop seem pretty standard to me, when the turn comes an overcard that completes a bunch of draws I don't really know what to do. I could bet out kind of smallish and hope to maybe still get value from AT type hands but meh. If I check and he bets I dunno how small his bet has to be to make a call decent, if ever.



$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($8.48)
UTG+1 ($4.77)
MP1 ($10.45)
MP2 ($2.60)
CO ($10)
BTN ($16.46)
SB ($13.88)
kiwimark (BB) ($14.22)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 8 players) kiwimark is BB
UTG calls $0.10 ($8.38), 6 folds, kiwimark raises to $0.50 ($13.62), UTG calls $0.40 ($7.98)

Flop: ($1.05, 2 players)
kiwimark bets $0.90 ($12.82), UTG calls $0.90 ($7.08)

Turn: ($2.85, 2 players)
kiwimark ($12.82)?

[bikes]

b/f $1.6

[Nekrogovner]

I would bet flop for like 0.50$ and turn for 1$. Villains at this level rarely think about your bet sizing, so why not make it twice as cheap? If he is scared of turn card he really can't continue (raise) with much. If he continues to call passively weirdest think I could expect to see at showdown are some weakish kings, QQ, some Tx, ...

[Duffryn]

Why bet 50c, (less than half the pot), on the flop? You are offering him odds of 3 - 1 which is almost the explicit odds he needs to continue with a flush or straight draw. He's not folding these draws, most of his small/medium pocket pairs and may be willing to call with two overcards to the board, especially if one is a heart. You need to get value from these hands.

[Nekrogovner]

Why bet 50c, (less than half the pot), on the flop? You are offering him odds of 3 - 1 which is almost the explicit odds he needs to continue with a flush or straight draw. He's not folding these draws, most of his small/medium pocket pairs and may be willing to call with two overcards to the board, especially if one is a heart. You need to get value from these hands.

Its still bad odds for a flush or a straight draw. Good odds for a straigh + flush however.

But really, you think that 10NL player is capable of folding QJs, Axs, JTs, etc on this board agains the odds? Nope.
Besides, if I wanto draw, and you give me the wrong odds, I just might reraise and represent some fat hand.

[kiwiMark]

We're not trying to bluff on the flop we're trying to get value, so "making it cheap" isn't desirable.

[Duffryn]

Its still bad odds for a flush or a straight draw. Good odds for a straigh + flush however.

Implied odds?

But really, you think that 10NL player is capable of folding QJs, Axs, JTs, etc on this board agains the odds? Nope.

I agree that these hands won't be folded. So why not charge them? Why give them a price that with implied odds, it's correct to call.

Besides, if I wanto draw, and you give me the wrong odds, I just might reraise and represent some fat hand.

Such as? There are very few raising hands that the villain can credibly represent. And a small flop bet is more likely to be raised than a large one.

[Nekrogovner]

We're not trying to bluff on the flop we're trying to get value, so "making it cheap" isn't desirable.

You will not get any value on 9T2 flush draw flop. All hands that will call the flop probably have you dominated. So yes, you have a hand with some pathetic cheap showdown value. If villain didn't limp UTG i would expect to see two black queens at showdown.

[kiwiMark]

wat

[Nekrogovner]

Implied odds?

I agree that these hands won't be folded. So why not charge them? Why give them a price that with implied odds, it's correct to call.

Such as? There are very few raising hands that the villain can credibly represent. And a small flop bet is more likely to be raised than a large one.

There are many, I can represent any flush draw, flush draw with T or 9 in it, sets, stupidly played AA-JJ.

And noes...I wouldn't charge them with easily dominated hand on worst flop ever with the worst turn ever.

[Nekrogovner]

wat

What I'm saying is that JJ sucks. Its slightly better then 33 on most flops, but is total crap unless you hit a set. Still can't settle for a cheap showdown? If there will be one at all?

[kiwiMark]

What kinda hands do you think villain is calling with on the flop?

[bikes]

jfc plz dont listen to anything this guy has said JJ =/= 33 on most flops and its not even close

[Donachello]

lol what the fuck.
As usual, agree with bikes on b/f. River is a pretty obv c/c on bricks I think and most likely c/f on another over or heart.

[Nekrogovner]

What kinda hands do you think villain is calling with on the flop?

Axs, Kxs, 22, 99, TT, KQ, QJ, JT, T9, 87

[Duffryn]

There are many, I can represent any flush draw, flush draw with T or 9 in it, sets, stupidly played AA-JJ.

And noes...I wouldn't charge them with easily dominated hand on worst flop ever with the worst turn ever.

On the flop, JJ is ahead of most flush draws and flipping with nearly all the rest. Its unlikely that a 19/13 villain limp/called UTG with the hands that make the better flush draws, like AhKh. Similarly, QQ+ is very unlikely to be in his range and probably not 99-JJ. The only hands you fear him representing are 22, T9o, T9s, QhJh, with maybe a little worry about 99, TT, slight concern about QQ-AA and not being that keen on AhKh, AhQh and KhQh.

That is a good flop for Jacks. 269 rainbow would be better, but AhTh9h would be a lot worse.

Kh (along with 8h) is the worst turn I agree. I am going to stop participating in derailing the thread, because the original question was what to do on that turn. My answer to that is I don't really know. Too tough for me.

[Shotglass]

Been an amusing read itt.

I agree with DC and bikes, b/f the turn.

c/c or c/f river depending on brick or not

[Carroters]

You will not get any value on 9T2 flush draw flop. All hands that will call the flop probably have you dominated. So yes, you have a hand with some pathetic cheap showdown value. If villain didn't limp UTG i would expect to see two black queens at showdown.

Wat......

[Carroters]

And yeah easy b/f turn, alternative flop lines/sizing sgguested and their reasoning are seriously terrible.

[Carroters]

WE CAN'T GET DRAWS TO FOLD SO JUST GIVE THEM AWESOME PRICE LOLOLOLOLOL

wat?

[philly and the phanatics]

hahaha o dat BC, at least kiwi isnt impressionable enough to listen to that guy

[Carroters]

Soemtimes I wish these people could accept that they're not strong players and post their crazy thoughts with disclaimers or at least "imos" so total noobs don't lap it up without thinking.

I guess it's an ego thing and they haven't yet accepted they suck though

[bikes]

Soemtimes I wish these people could accept that they're not strong players and post their crazy thoughts with disclaimers or at least "imos" so total noobs don't lap it up without thinking.

I guess it's an ego thing and they haven't yet accepted they suck though

my mom says im good at pokers =(

[Nekrogovner]

Okay, lets ignore what that stupid fish nekrogovner said through his last 100 posts.

Questions:
1. What is wrong with my bet sizing? I am still giving bad odds to villain, although not that bad like when he would draw for 0.90$

2. Bikes proposed to bet/fold turn 1.6$, which is a bit more then 1/2 pot size, while flop bet size was slightly less then pot. To an observant villain, wouldn't that sort of bet sizing suggest that hero is worried about the turn card, and induce a bluffraise regardless of villains holdings?

Fish out.

[philly and the phanatics]

hey sorry for being a jerk in the other thread i am just joking...but that being said...

1. Your bet sizing is wrong because he will still call 90c with all his draws and Tx....in poker you want to maximize profits. If he is going to fold all his hands that you are beating with this size bet, then yes either look for a smaller size or don't bet at all. But we have a good hand here that is ahead of a lot of his calling range, so we want to maximize the amount of money we get from our opponent.

2. yes it could induce bluff raises....yet its not as likely as if we were betting really tiny every street like you advocate doing. On top of that, if he bets really big, all the Tx is going to fold in fear of a flush or a King, and leave you against a range of hands you are doing poorly against (understatement).

And trying to bet big to bluff him off a hand isnt going to work because nothing that he folds was beating us, other than maybe queens? Thus you want to bet an amount that he will still call with his Tx/QJ/Ahx

[Imthenewfish]

I agree QQ makes the most sense here

[kiwiMark]

thanks everyone