AA max value on Q626 3-way

[daven]

CO is a probably winning-ish reg 14-10 who only 3bets AA, his fold to cbet is low 38% and he's kinda floaty (80% bet flop/turn vs missed c-bets). He won't be flatting a set on a two-tone board (notes, decent sample). BB is 21-10 passive fish who will play faceup and obviously calls too much.

ok, flop is interesting. CO's calling range is something like 77-JJ/KQs/AQ/KK on this flop, although i expect him to raise KK. He doesn't have any flush draws in his range cos pre and i block with the flush ace. BB is calling all sorts of dumb top pair/77-JJ/weak flush draw types of hands and never has anything strong.

Turn is interesting. Like, I should probably be check-shoving right? I think he's betting all of his hands that beat TT if i check, and he seems to think that i don't fire barrels light (probably true). Once he bets and i shove he may level himself into calling vs my face-up AsKs....
or is this just me being ridiculous and it's time to bet $5.80 or something?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($25)
Button ($28.85)
SB ($26.59)
BB ($25)
UTG ($22.77)
UTG+1 ($17.25)
MP1 ($25)
Hero (MP2) ($30.22)
MP3 ($21.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A
3 folds, Hero bets $0.85, 1 fold, CO calls $0.85, 2 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.65) 2, 6, Q (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.80, CO calls $1.80, BB calls $1.80

Turn: ($8.05) 6 (3 players)
BB checks, time to fps check = shove da nutz?

{Edit: Fixed the title; before it said "AA max value on Q622 3-way". --spoonitnow}

[rpm]

based on your reads, he bets this turn
doesn't bet:
88 - 6
99 - 6
total 12

does bet
TT - 6
JJ - 6
KQs -3
AQ - 6
total: 21

21/33 = 63% of the time. and probably stacks off incorrectly with {KQs,AQ} = 9/21 = 48%. so i think check/shove is a great way to exploit him caling flops/betting turns light (ie his turn betting range is likely wider than his calling range). may also end up getting it in vs the BB's QJ/KQ/AQor something. your hand is considerably stronger than both your opponents ranges. and it seems they're both going to be more willing to put $$ in the pot if you check the turn instead of betting it.

all of the above assumes the LP villains folds hands weaker than KQ when you bet the turn. which is likely if he perceives your turn barreling range as strong.

[Razvan729]

i say bet 1/2-3/4 pot/// you say CO is ok, but BB is dumb, maybe he had played some sort of 6x.... i would bet and see what happends, anyway i wouldnt fold AA on this board.

check shove also good but they may take the free card... and i wouldnt want that...

[daviddem]

Not sure about check/shove because
1) CO may like to float heads up but the fact that sticky BB is there makes the play much trickier, so he may well choose to check behind instead (even if he bets JJ, JJ and Qx are only 15 out of his 39 combos (discounted KK))
2) CO bets $5.8, BB calls $5.8 (maybe with A6s a Q or FD or FH), Hero shoves, CO folds most of the time - unless he thinks you are fos AND BB doesn't have much - or calls with an unlikely better hand, BB probably folds worse and calls better apart maybe AQ.

So bet?

May I ask you about your rationale for your bet sizing on the flop? (I am not questioning it, just asking). In this kind of situations I would tend to bet something like $2.2 if not more. I also don't cbet without a hand, I don't know about you, but the fact you bet even though you are sandwiched vs 2 may also make the CO think that you don't have much air in your range, and make him less likely to float with stuff like underpairs?

edit: combo count

doesn't bet:
77 6
88 6
99 6
TT 6
total 24
bet:
KQs 3
AQ 6
JJ 6
total 15

So he bets only 38% of the time.

[daven]

cheers to spoon for fixing the thread title!

the fact that sticky BB is there makes the play much trickier, so he may well choose to check behind instead

good point
note there is only one possible A6s

May I ask you about your rationale for your bet sizing on the flop?

sure, i'll get back to you later - after you answer the next simple question

In this kind of situations I would tend to bet something like $2.2 if not more. I also don't cbet without a hand,

why?

----------

also you gotta remember that nobody has any respect for me cos their hud shows something like 21-13 and they've seen me bluff rivers with air, valuebet 3rd pair, and overbet shove draws on the turn...

[daviddem]

why?

1) I generally don't cbet with air OOP vs 2 opps because I get in the sh*t more often than not when I do that.

More rationally, let's consider one opp who is likely to lay down his hand 66% of the time when I cbet p into a p pot. When he continues, I'll barrel again and let's say I am going to profit 2p 1/2 of the time and loose 4p 1/2 of the time. If I am heads up against him, then it's a good play:
EV=0.66*p+0.33*(0.5*2p-0.5*4p)=0.33p

edit: even if my second barrel looses 4p 2/3rd of the time and wins 2p 1/3rd of the time, I break even

If I am facing two of these opps, they'll only both give up their hand 0.66*0.66=43% of the time. They both continue 11% of the time. And one of them continues 46% of the time. Let's say when they both continue I just shut down and only loose my p cbet.
EV=0.43*p-0.11*p+0.46*(0.5*2p-0.5*4p)=-0.14p

Simplistic math, but this illustrates how much worse it is to cbet-bluff vs 2 rather than 1. I think you need a serious edge to cbet bluff profitably vs 2.

2) why do I bet more with a good hand vs 2 opps and OOP than vs 1 opp in position? Because it's a value bet, and my opp is more likely to continue because he has a positional advantage. He should be ready to pay a little more for this advantage. Or taken the other way around, I want my opp to pay the price to cover the cost of my positional disadvantage. And why more against 2 than 1? Basically to avoid offering magnificent odds. If I bet 0.5p into p and opp1 calls with 25% pot odds, then opp2 has even better 20% pot odds, which he can call profitably with any kind of draw. If I bet p, opp1 has 33% pot odds and when opp1 calls opp2 has 25% pot odds. You're also more likely to get heads up on the next street, a desirable situation with non utter nuts type of hands, or put another way, opps pay the price to make us play vs 2 which in general makes our equity in the hand plummet.

I realize that it is exploitable to "never cbet-bluff vs 2 OOP", but at the stakes I play at it matters less than the above reasons.

Now I am sure there are flaws in my reasoning above or you would not have asked the question... over, to you!

also you gotta remember that nobody has any respect for me cos their hud shows something like 21-13 and they've seen me bluff rivers with air, valuebet 3rd pair, and overbet shove draws on the turn...

OK, I'll keep in mind that you're fos next time I comment on one of your hands!

[couriermike]

I like the 2barrel. There's alot of worse hands that can call a bet, esp with the fishy BB still in the hand.

[Donachello]

I dunno if I like check shipping here that much tbh. The fish vill clearly also has some 6x in his range. Also if you check the range of hands that are betting is pretty narrow imo. I'd expect to see most mid pairs, FDs and even some weak Qx checked behind on this dry of a board. It's kind of a meh spot since betting folds out basically all the FDs that remain and narrows your value range to Qx and middling pairs that don't believe you have them beat because (LOL BOARD PAIRED!)

That said, I think betting like 5 is going to be fine here since CO may call with some of his middle stuff, and SB is never folding Q9+. SB might also find a call with some raggedy spades. I mean if CO folds then who cares, you still most likely get to play a biggish pot IP vs a fish with an OP.

[DBRose]

PLEASSSSSE bet this turn!!!!!

[Razvan729]

to DBrose: any reason why he should bet or just instinct?

[daven]

ok, as played I bet the turn something like $4.8 and got two folds and hated myself cos i'd already checked the HUD popup for co's bet vs missed turn c-bet and thought 'check-shove time fo sho, but what about the fish in the blinds'. If he checked back turn i'm definitely getting a river street of value when i bet.

May I ask you about your rationale for your bet sizing on the flop? (

1 - neither villain can have the nut flush draw as I hold the flush ace. That plus the Qs being on the board means that there are also far less flush draws to protect than normal as instead of all Asxs plus a few random scs/broadways.
2 - neither villain is raising without a hand that beats AQ, and KK/AA are hugely discounted due to preflop/blockers. So if I'm raised i'm toast
3 - so basically it's about getting max-value. Max value means being able to easily get it in over 3 streets, and it means getting two callers on the flop. Better to bet $1.8 and go 3-way vs crap than to bet $2.2 and go HU to the turn or even likely take it down there and then
4 - $1.8 is small enough to start to sow the seeds of doubt...h

also, @daviddem re your sizing and frequency rationale = pretty damn solid for the micros. NH. Just one comment.
c-bet sizing makes things interesting here. Your approach makes sense, so does sometimes c-betting just over 1/2 pot into two opponents on dry-ish boards. The math is easy

[DBRose]

to DBrose: any reason why he should bet or just instinct?

If CO decides to check behind and try to get to showdown with a hand like TT/JJ, QJs etc then we get no value from his hand or whatever the BB could hold which can definitely be some flush draws and weaker hands that will call.

OP, you might be giving CO a bit too much credit to read your hand as a faceup AKs. I think betting the turn here is best of all options.

[Keith]

If CO decides to check behind and try to get to showdown with a hand like TT/JJ, QJs etc then we get no value from his hand or whatever the BB could hold which can definitely be some flush draws and weaker hands that will call.

Thats not what daven's read says he will do though.CO is kinda floaty , doesn't fld much to flop cbets. A check here is an open door for CO to stab and try and nick the pot. This in turn lets the passive BB potentially call and leads to the shove and getting the money in. with the TT/JJ QJ hands you quote , he isn't going to be calling two barrels with them, but could definately stab with them.

OP, you might be giving CO a bit too much credit to read your hand as a faceup AKs. I think betting the turn here is best of all options.

how many hands that Daven beats are going to continue though?and how many hands that have him beaten are going to fold?

[DBRose]

So you think villain would fold to a turn bet but call a check raise allin?

[NightGizmo]

So you think villain would fold to a turn bet but call a check raise allin?

It doesn't matter if he calls or not (although we'd prefer him to call with worse, obviously). What matters is that we get a second street of value from one or maybe even two players.

There's the additional bonus that the villain might think twice before floating and trying to steal on the turn, because he knows that the hero can check-raise in that spot.

[daven]

So you think villain would fold to a turn bet but call a check raise allin?

so, if he folds to a turn bet i make 0bb extra from this hand
if he bets then folds, i make 25bb extra
if he bets then feels pot committed cos he would be calling 64bb into 220bb then all the better.

You don't seem to think much beyond bet-bet-bet-bet-bet-bet-bet, unless there's 3 to a flush on board and i have an overpair with no flush draw - then you seem to think i should check. I'm confused.

[DBRose]

If this hand were HU on the turn I would love the crai like some of you advocate. Given second reads etc it would make a lot of sense but being that we have the fish in with is betting here is better as you are more likely to get a call or calls and maybe even a 3rd street of value from the fish vs co betting/fish calling/you shoving and getting called mostly by hands that beat you.

[DBRose]

...which obviously isn't much and highly unlikely you are beat here. I just think that your plan here relies on the fact that co will bet when he can check behind with a ton of hands here and give the fish who could be drawing a free card.

[daven]

If this hand were HU on the turn I would love the crai like some of you advocate. Given second reads etc it would make a lot of sense but being that we have the fish in with is betting here is better as you are more likely to get a call or calls and maybe even a 3rd street of value from the fish vs co betting/fish calling/you shoving and getting called mostly by hands that beat you.

...which obviously isn't much and highly unlikely you are beat here. I just think that your plan here relies on the fact that co will bet when he can check behind with a ton of hands here and give the fish who could be drawing a free card.

cool, i like your reasoning. The fish in the blinds was the reason i bet the turn in this hand, but in retrospect i'm not sure that the bet was good - obviously it's not absolutely terrible. Hard to tell what is optimal. I still prefer a check-raise, cos i'm sure CO will assume bb is drawing and also want value out of him, so may bet those grey hands. That could be results orientated thinking tho, that's why i posted

cheers for the input

[DBRose]

You don't seem to think much beyond bet-bet-bet-bet-bet-bet-bet, unless there's 3 to a flush on board and i have an overpair with no flush draw - then you seem to think i should check. I'm confused.

At the micros yes, bet bet bet is best while trying to avoid fps. The other hand you refer to in this post is way different. You c/called after 3betting then donk shoved a 3f turn with your overpair...pretty much fps IMO.

But your reads and thinkig outside of the box is solid, I just wouldn't get too crazy with it until you are facing better opponents.

[kfaess]

I don't really think this is very close at all. I think you have to bet the turn.

When I'm playing a multi way pot in general I expect decent players to play more straight forward. This is especially true if there is also a fish in the pot. Therefore, I'd only expect him to bet a pretty strong range for value on the turn. I wouldn't really expect him to bet 77-TT. And even when he does bet a hand like KQ on the turn, I'm not sure he's stacking off. So IMO you're not gaining anything by checking turn because anything he's going to bet he's going to call your turn bet with. Plus, when you c/r him you might be missing out on a small river bet when he folds turn when he would call like a 1/4-1/3 value bet on riv. Plus, when you check and it checks through thats clearly a disaster to be giving free cards to two opponents.

To me its a clear bet on turn.