Stat Check - 10NL FR

[NightGizmo]

I've played 20,000 hands now at full-ring 10NL. I'm winning at a decent rate (5ptbb/100), but maybe you guys can find some leaks I need to plug based on my stats.

10NL Full-Ring Stats, 20,000 Hands

Thanks for taking a look!

[kmind]

Can't read any of that

[NightGizmo]

Sorry about that -- I guess the forum software automatically resizes attached images. You should be able to read it now.

[kmind]

Might be sample size but I'd 3bet more on the BU. It should be higher than at least CO 3bet% and EP %. I'd cbet a tad more too.

[philly and the phanatics]

id be tighter utg and utg +1

[NightGizmo]

Might be sample size but I'd 3bet more on the BU. It should be higher than at least CO 3bet% and EP %. I'd cbet a tad more too.

It's not sample size, I definitely need to widen my 3bet range from the button. I'll also look to add a few more cbet opportunities into my game. Thanks.

id be tighter utg and utg +1

Thanks, that's something I was thinking about my stats, too.

[daven]

looks familiar. note that you don't need to play LAG to crush micro FR, probably 14-11 is optimal, but not necessarily that fun...

3 types of advantages, right? positional, card, and skill. Everyone over-estimates skill advantage. Positional and card are far less subjective.

anyway, i suggest tighter from ep, tighter from mp, increase pfr from button without increasing vpip. 3b less in ep. Steal more from co/bu and less from sb. Stop calling junk from the bb.

[daven]

Might be sample size but I'd 3bet more on the BU. It should be higher than at least CO 3bet% and EP %. I'd cbet a tad more too.

disagree about the bu stat being too low, and i think its value relative to the rest is sample size biased.
c-bet looks fine.

you're probably calling 3bets too often

[Micro2Macro]

looks fine

[daven]

I've played 20,000 hands now at full-ring 10NL. I'm winning at a decent rate (5ptbb/100),

also, 5ptBB/100 is a respectable winrate, so the tweaks that are being suggested are really only minor and probably not hugely important.
there are no screaming leaks in your stats, the suggestions i have made are small changes only, and not essential at all

[kmind]

disagree about the bu stat being too low, and i think its value relative to the rest is sample size biased.
c-bet looks fine.

you're probably calling 3bets too often

I was saying 3bet more on the BU compared to CO. Are you saying to 3bet more in the CO??

Yeah no idea on cbet stat I just assumed it was similar to 6max.

[daven]

I was saying 3bet more on the BU compared to CO. Are you saying to 3bet more in the CO??.

3b more from bu vs co is true, but i think he is likely to be doing so, and sample size is messing things up (3b stats need big samples to converge) - nothing else in op's stats suggest he's the type to be 3-betting a wider range from co than from bu

[Micro2Macro]

hard to 3bet much at 10nl when everyone just open limps to you and raises only 5% of hands

[kmind]

Yeah just confused on daven's post...which he was confused on my post...which probably confused OP. Sawwy.

[Donachello]

Flop Cbet is a bit low, SB is too loose and increase your PFR in late position.

[NightGizmo]

looks familiar. note that you don't need to play LAG to crush micro FR, probably 14-11 is optimal, but not necessarily that fun...

3 types of advantages, right? positional, card, and skill. Everyone over-estimates skill advantage. Positional and card are far less subjective.

anyway, i suggest tighter from ep, tighter from mp, increase pfr from button without increasing vpip. 3b less in ep. Steal more from co/bu and less from sb. Stop calling junk from the bb.

Yes, I know I *could* play tighter to play optimally, but somehow I keep widening up a bit. I definitely need to tighten up my EP ranges, and I'm going to dig deeper into my MP stats to see what hands I should be trimming out.

you're probably calling 3bets too often

Probably (definitely). Thanks for all the input, it reinforces what I know I should be doing, but somehow keep forgetting at the tables.

hard to 3bet much at 10nl when everyone just open limps to you and raises only 5% of hands

Ha, true! But I think that's offset by the times we 3bet over the fish that like to minraise a wide range of hands.

Flop Cbet is a bit low, SB is too loose and increase your PFR in late position.

I might be calling a little too much from the SB, but most of my SB raises are either from a relatively tight value range or a blatant steal of a nit sitting in the BB. There are a lot of players at 10NL where I can steal with literally any two cards.

[Openside]

Are you Att. Steal too much in bad positions?

I have been trying to study spoon's post meticulously and apply it to my game.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...-a-152792.html

Assumptions i am making:
You win $0.1333/successful steal
You lose $0.4/unsuccessful steal
You fold the flop (i.e. not considering C bet)

You steal on average 39.47% with an average success rate of 55.58%. If my math is correct you are losing on average 0.7216 ptBB/Att. steal ($0.1443). You would need a success rate of 75% just to be breaking even.

[NightGizmo]

Are you Att. Steal too much?

You steal on average 39.47% with an average success rate of 55.58%. You would need a success rate of 75% just to be breaking even.

There are a few things to consider:

1) That 39.47% includes my value range, so my steal range is actually smaller than that. That also means that my success rate needs to be less, because I want them to call with my value range.
2) Against weak-tight villains, you can complete the steal on the flop by cbetting.
3) When there are nits in the blinds, my standard raise size is only 3bb from the BTN/SB.

I'm not sure how my stats compare to others, but if I filter for [ Position = 0 AND Raise First In ], my ptbb/100 is 60. For [ Post Small Blind AND Raise First In ] my win rate is only 1 ptbb/100.

Finally -- my range completely depends on who is in the blinds. There are some players where I will bet literally any two cards, and on the other extreme there are some players where I only raise for value.

[NightGizmo]

I just re-read spoon's article and my stat is pretty much inline with what he suggests.

Once you get more comfortable and start finding good spots to exploit nits, you can probably get it up to 35%-38% without much trouble, but I would suggest slowly opening up and adding hands to your LP range instead of trying to jump into playing a game that you're not used to.

[Openside]

I just re-read spoon's article and my stat is pretty much inline with what he suggests.

Right on. If not completely implemented, spoon's post is making me think. Like a pendulum i swung from not stealing enough to stealing too much. By too much i mean <30% but in positions where the prob. of the blinds folding to my steal was not profitable.
In addition to this if im stealing from the CO i think i have to include the prob. of the BU folding too, no?

Would be nice if we could filter for stealing more accurately.

[NightGizmo]

In addition to this if im stealing from the CO i think i have to include the prob. of the BU folding too, no?

Yes, in fact the button should be your first concern. If the button won't fold, then you're stuck with a double whammy -- you have weak cards AND you are out of position.