Math Check with stove

[Fedora]

villain is running 56/17/0.1 With 33.3 for 3 bet. With a fold to cbet of 33%.


I did the math in pokerstove, put in 33.3% for his hand range.


equity win tie
Hand 0: 53.162% 51.48% 01.68% { AsKd }
Hand 1: 46.838% 45.16% 01.68% { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, A5o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }


For basically for my EV equation.

Its EV = Fold%(Current Pot) + Call%( ( New Pot * win% ) - ( New Pot * lose% ))

so here, lets just say he's folding down bottom 33%. So I put in pokerstove, 15.4% for the new range.

So my equity against that range is 47.602

EV = 33%(6.55) + 67% ( (13.75 * 47.602 % ) - ( 13.75 * 47.602% ) )
= 2.1615 + 67%( 6.5453 - 6.545 )
= $2.16 EV


Am I close here, or way off?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($3.90)
Button ($6.60)
SB ($15.80)
BB ($4.10)
Hero (UTG) ($10)
MP ($2)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K
Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, CO calls $0.40, Button raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, Button calls $2

Flop: ($6.55) Q, 8, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $4, Button calls $3.60 (All-In)

Turn: ($13.75) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($13.75) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $13.75 | Rake: $0.65

[spoil]
Button had 10, A (one pair, Aces).
Hero had A, K (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $13.10[/spoil]

[spoonitnow]

I'm going to cuss a little to help you remember this. Keep in mind that this is for your own good, and this isn't a personal attack against you.

DO YOU SERIOUSLY FUCKING THINK HE'S GOING TO 3-BET EXACTLY 33% OF HANDS HERE JUST BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT IT SAYS ON YOUR HUD? I MEAN OKAY IT'S TOTALLY OBVIOUS THAT KJ FUCKING OFFSUIT IS CALLING HERE ON THE FLOP.

But yeah, a range isn't just a number you take off of the HUD, throw onto PokerStove and copy/paste. Figure out what individual hands you think he calls/folds on the flop, and come up with a more realistic range for him calling your 4-bet. Then later come into IRC and I'll show you a faster way to do the math that you can learn in like 5 minutes and do it in your head.

[Fedora]

Actually, this was just more of a exercise for me to do a full EV calculations with poker stove and see if the math and equation part is good. I didn't put him on that range when I was playing the hand. No way I was putting him on J7s or J9o here. I was actually suprised how wide the range of hands were for 33%.

So for hand ranges.
When he 3bet.
Put villain's range as { 22+, A2s+, A8o+, 67s+, JTo+, QTs+, KTs+ }
I haven't seen him release to a 4bet yet, but on the safe side, i'm going to assume he can lay down the lower end of his range.
{ 22+, A5+, ATo+, 89s+, QJo, KJs+ } 15% of hands

Against this range, I was a 60 to 40 underdog on the flop.

I didn't think his calling range would be too wide on the flop,
When I shoved there, I thought i'd get called by
{ 33, 88+, AJo+, A3s, A8s+, QJo+ } 10.7% of hands
against this range i'm 67% underdog.

so he's folding 4.3%/15% = 28.7%

So I bust out my equation.

EV = 28.7%(6.55) + 71.3% ( (13.75 * 33 % ) - ( 13.75 * 67% ) )
= 1.88 + 71.3%( 4.54 - 9.21 )
= -$1.45 EV

So that was a bad shove. mmm

Spoon, what time are you going to be on IRC? I'm definitely interested in the easier way to do the math.

[Fedora]

I'm going to cuss a little to help you remember this. Keep in mind that this is for your own good, and this isn't a personal attack against you.

HAHAHA, and the cuss is cool, as long as I get better.

[EasyPoker]

I'd also like to know how to do the math faster.