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Actually, this was just more of a exercise for me to do a full EV calculations with poker stove and see if the math and equation part is good. I didn't put him on that range when I was playing the hand. No way I was putting him on J7s or J9o here. I was actually suprised how wide the range of hands were for 33%.
So for hand ranges.
When he 3bet.
Put villain's range as { 22+, A2s+, A8o+, 67s+, JTo+, QTs+, KTs+ }
I haven't seen him release to a 4bet yet, but on the safe side, i'm going to assume he can lay down the lower end of his range.
{ 22+, A5+, ATo+, 89s+, QJo, KJs+ } 15% of hands
Against this range, I was a 60 to 40 underdog on the flop.
I didn't think his calling range would be too wide on the flop,
When I shoved there, I thought i'd get called by
{ 33, 88+, AJo+, A3s, A8s+, QJo+ } 10.7% of hands
against this range i'm 67% underdog.
so he's folding 4.3%/15% = 28.7%
So I bust out my equation.
EV = 28.7%(6.55) + 71.3% ( (13.75 * 33 % ) - ( 13.75 * 67% ) )
= 1.88 + 71.3%( 4.54 - 9.21 )
= -$1.45 EV
So that was a bad shove. mmm
Spoon, what time are you going to be on IRC? I'm definitely interested in the easier way to do the math.
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