Math Check with stove

I'm going to cuss a little to help you remember this. Keep in mind that this is for your own good, and this isn't a personal attack against you.

DO YOU SERIOUSLY FUCKING THINK HE'S GOING TO 3-BET EXACTLY 33% OF HANDS HERE JUST BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT IT SAYS ON YOUR HUD? I MEAN OKAY IT'S TOTALLY OBVIOUS THAT KJ FUCKING OFFSUIT IS CALLING HERE ON THE FLOP.

But yeah, a range isn't just a number you take off of the HUD, throw onto PokerStove and copy/paste. Figure out what individual hands you think he calls/folds on the flop, and come up with a more realistic range for him calling your 4-bet. Then later come into IRC and I'll show you a faster way to do the math that you can learn in like 5 minutes and do it in your head.

Actually, this was just more of a exercise for me to do a full EV calculations with poker stove and see if the math and equation part is good. I didn't put him on that range when I was playing the hand. No way I was putting him on J7s or J9o here. I was actually suprised how wide the range of hands were for 33%.

So for hand ranges.
When he 3bet.
Put villain's range as { 22+, A2s+, A8o+, 67s+, JTo+, QTs+, KTs+ }
I haven't seen him release to a 4bet yet, but on the safe side, i'm going to assume he can lay down the lower end of his range.
{ 22+, A5+, ATo+, 89s+, QJo, KJs+ } 15% of hands

Against this range, I was a 60 to 40 underdog on the flop.

I didn't think his calling range would be too wide on the flop,
When I shoved there, I thought i'd get called by
{ 33, 88+, AJo+, A3s, A8s+, QJo+ } 10.7% of hands
against this range i'm 67% underdog.

so he's folding 4.3%/15% = 28.7%

So I bust out my equation.

EV = 28.7%(6.55) + 71.3% ( (13.75 * 33 % ) - ( 13.75 * 67% ) )
= 1.88 + 71.3%( 4.54 - 9.21 )
= -$1.45 EV

So that was a bad shove. mmm

Spoon, what time are you going to be on IRC? I'm definitely interested in the easier way to do the math.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I'm going to cuss a little to help you remember this. Keep in mind that this is for your own good, and this isn't a personal attack against you.

HAHAHA, and the cuss is cool, as long as I get better.