NL25: High variance hand

My preflop call in this hand was loose, but I felt that I wouldn't lose any value post-flop if I flopped an ace and that I could play draws aggressively. I was not prepared for this, though:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($25.60)
MP3 ($5)
CO ($37.10)
Button ($4.65)
SB ($24.05)
Hero (BB) ($29.25)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($24.05)
MP1 ($32.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 10
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.75, 1 fold, CO calls $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.35) 9, 3, J (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $24.85 (All-In), CO calls $24.85, Hero raises to $28.50 (All-In), CO calls $3.65

I estimated 35% equity which makes this about break-even UNLESS I'm up against a flush draw and KK (best case) or a set + AA (worst case)

[oskar]

I estimated 35% equity which makes this about break-even

wat?


I think it's tough because he's retarded and you have a good hand. I think you might have a little more equity than that, but how does that make the call break even?
The only way I'm calling is if I have a note on the player that he's open shoving draws, or betting draws aggressively.
Plus - like the title sais: very high variance, so even your BR might be a factor in whether or not you can possibly make a call like that.

[kb coolman]

I think there are better spots to get your money all-in than on a draw.

HOWEVER, like Oskar said, what are your notes on this player?

I think you might have a little more equity than that, but how does that make the call break even?

Yea. Wat? Are you calling this breakeven because you've commited to the river and now have two shots to hit the spade?

[bjsaust]

You need to use pokerstove more.

[swiggidy]

I think it's tough because he's retarded and you have a good hand. I think you might have a little more equity than that, but how does that make the call break even?

wat?

he's getting a little better than 2:1, so a little worse than 33% would be breakeven.

The only way I'm calling is if I have a note on the player that he's open shoving draws, or betting draws aggressively.

What do people open push? Some pre-flop stats would help, but this is probably OESD, or maybe KsQs so he thinks he has a gutshot to go with the overs. Seen this done with rag flush draws too.

Thing that gets me is what does the CO have? J9 or a set (likely 33) make the most sense and then you're equity is fucked. Could go either way in a game (weighted by what I think of villains/table).

Plus - like the title sais: very high variance, so even your BR might be a factor in whether or not you can possibly make a call like that.

This shouldn't even cross your mind

[jyms]

You may want to give the villain a range in the OP and tell us what you think he had. I think your more than 33%

[swiggidy]

I think there are better spots to get your money all-in than on a draw.

Download pokerstove, it's fun and free.

If he had AQs I'd say snap call.

[a500lbgorilla]

But you just have a draw! Only fish cant fold!

[spoonitnow]

I think this is close enough to break even that outside factors should determine a call or not, like if it's going to rattle you to lose a big pot, etc.

[bjsaust]

Give one of them a set and rerun your numbers.

[spoonitnow]

Give one of them a set and rerun your numbers.

This too.

[jyms]

Board: 9s 3c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.011% 30.01% 00.00% 2439 0.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 04.540% 04.54% 00.00% 369 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 2: 65.449% 65.45% 00.00% 5319 0.00 { JJ }

$2.35 in the pot
MP2 bets $24.85
CO calls $28.50 total

Pot is $55.70
$28.5 in hero's stack
is exactly 33% and we are 36% to hit the flush alone. We are 30% giving both of them sets. Easy call.

[Robb]

I ran a "worst case" on poker stove, using swiggidy's estimates for opponents. The only "bad" hand included is KQ, so it seems like Hero's equity HAS to be better than 33% here.

541,800 games 0.018 secs 30,099,999 games/sec

Board: Js 9s 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.895% 31.56% 00.33% 170997 1809.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 13.567% 13.23% 00.33% 71698 1809.00 { KQs, QTs, T8s, KQo, QTo, T8o }
Hand 2: 54.538% 54.54% 00.00% 295487 0.00 { 99, 33, J9s, J9o }

[Fnord]

Passing on good edges will give you the kind of "variance" you're trying to avoid.

[oskar]

I didn't see that the CO already called. - snap push of course!

This isn't so incredibly high variance then, but you do have to think about it. You can't keep flipping coins against a maniac if you only have enough chips for 25 coinflips. There are better spots to get the money in.

[spoonitnow]

Board: 9s 3c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.011% 30.01% 00.00% 2439 0.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 04.540% 04.54% 00.00% 369 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 2: 65.449% 65.45% 00.00% 5319 0.00 { JJ }

$2.35 in the pot
MP2 bets $24.85
CO calls $28.50 total

Pot is $55.70
$28.5 in hero's stack
is exactly 33% and we are 36% to hit the flush alone. We are 30% giving both of them sets. Easy call.

Letting both of them have sets is better for us than just 1, doucy?

Yes, but that's offset by when one of them has a flush draw
the first guy who pushed could have easily had straight flush draw with KQs and the other an overpair

[bjsaust]

If one has a set and the other a FD we're only about 23%.

If you include overpairs with the set range it starts to look better.

Hand 0: 33.861% 33.74% 00.12% 46926 162.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 58.759% 58.62% 00.14% 81519 192.00 { 99+, 33 }
Hand 2: 07.380% 07.36% 00.02% 10233 30.00 { KsQs, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, 4s3s }

Maybe I run bad, but I'd say in the last dozen or so times I've been in similar situations, someones had a set.

[bjsaust]

Yes, but that's offset by when one of them has a flush draw
the first guy who pushed could have easily had straight flush draw with KQs and the other an overpair

No, someone having a FD gives us less outs, and if we're against a set our A isnt a live out.

If both opps have sets then we hopefully have all our flush outs, and they block each others boat draws.

Yes, but that's offset by when one of them has a flush draw
the first guy who pushed could have easily had straight flush draw with KQs and the other an overpair

No, someone having a FD gives us less outs, and if we're against a set our A isnt a live out.

If both opps have sets then we hopefully have all our flush outs, and they block each others boat draws.

Actually, yeah that kills our equity, but not as much as being up against one set and AA

we'd prefer KK > KcQc > set

[Jovar]

Pot is $55.70
$28.5 in hero's stack
is exactly 33% and we are 36% to hit the flush alone. We are 30% giving both of them sets. Easy call

Though not every flush completed means a winning hand at showdown. The board may still pair. As you equity percentage said, 30%. Paying 33% for a 30% win chance is -ev.

[Robb]

Not sure I get where spoony's going with this. Yes, this is -EV if villains both have (the right) monsters. But the earlier posts were about how much equity Hero has (i.e. more than 33%).

Are we just learning how various combinations change our equity and framing a bottom end to Hero's chances? Or is someone saying this a fold?

[a500lbgorilla]

Doesn't matter what specific cards opponents have, just the range of hands they can have. And we're getting odds to ship.

[jyms]

IF anyone wants to post there own ranges for villains feel free. So far I here a ton of talk about nothing.

We are definitely not behind both, and I don't think we see a set everytime from the CO. MP2 is not overshoving a set, and the caller could have one but he has a ton more here, like AJ or QT.

[Robb]

With no reads on either, he we go:

I think CO has pp's, sc's and some broadways initially, after betting narrow that to sets, 2 pair, and combo hands. Probably half sets, half combo hands he thinks have 10+ outs that cut into our FD odds.

I think MP has some kind of overpair or KQs here (no way it's 2 pair, imo), or is really loose PF. He could have KsJx or AJ and lost his mind. Within his PFR range is JJ and 99 surely, but like Jyms said they don't seem to match the betting.

Either way, the broadways/combos tend to block each other, though some cut into our FD odds. For CO, half crushes us, half is OK for Hero. For MP, his range is way behind both CO and Hero, imo. Less than 20% sets, 80% dominated junk. I'll get specific and run Poker Stove if y'all want, but I'll wait to see what others think with villains totally unknown.

[Miffed22001]

very quickly

This looks like a worst case: (and lets be honest its too weighted to certain hands)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

170,667 games 0.016 secs 10,666,687 games/sec

Board: Js 9s 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.879% 26.88% 00.00% 45873 0.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 15.045% 15.05% 00.00% 25677 0.00 { JJ+, 99, KsQs, KsTs, QsTs, 8s7s }
Hand 2: 58.076% 58.08% 00.00% 99117 0.00 { JJ, 99, 33 }


---

hint: think wider the guy who called doesn't just call with a set

[overflow]

MP2 has AJ/JJ+ almost always, CO has 33/99/J9 almost always, and QTs of clubs sometimes if he's a moron. I'm tempted to put AJ in CO's range, but I don't think even microdonks are dumb enough to call a 12x pot open ship with TPTK. One or two of the AJs combo's might be reasonable. If either player has a set our equity is crushed. Basically neither player can have a set in their range (based on probable holdings) for this to be a profitable call. Since this is not the case I think I fold. Since you hold one of the Aces, it's very very unlikely that they both have AJ. I think the scenario you're hoping for is MP2 has an overpair, and CO has AJ. I think it's very hard for MP2 to have a set, but the board is pretty wet so he might've thought there was value in open shipping (unlikely).

Read that makes the most sense in my opinion is that MP2 has QQ+ like 95% of the time. This line screams "Your flush draw is not going to crack my aces again".

We're smoked, I fold.

I doubt CO can fold AA/KK to a shove here

[overflow]

I doubt CO can fold AA/KK to a shove here

I doubt CO flats AA or KK preflop, so I'm not putting them in his range.

[overflow]

very quickly

This looks like a worst case: (and lets be honest its too weighted to certain hands)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

170,667 games 0.016 secs 10,666,687 games/sec

Board: Js 9s 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.879% 26.88% 00.00% 45873 0.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 15.045% 15.05% 00.00% 25677 0.00 { JJ+, 99, KsQs, KsTs, QsTs, 8s7s }
Hand 2: 58.076% 58.08% 00.00% 99117 0.00 { JJ, 99, 33 }


---

Epic Fail. MP2 can't have the T of spades, it's in our hand.

Also, I think CO is more likely to have KQs than MP2 is.

I doubt CO can fold AA/KK to a shove here

I doubt CO flats AA or KK preflop, so I'm not putting them in his range.

I wouldn't put it in his range preflop, but when he calls a shove, it makes me re-evaluate.

We can't exclude hands from a range permanently, we have to add some back. Especially since the preflop decision is a decision for a few dollars, and he called off his stack on the flop, the flop decision outweighs the preflop decision in magnitude and importance.

tl;dr version: re-evaluate your ranges on each street to account for new information

[Miffed22001]

very quickly



---

Epic Fail.

also, when you punch in impossible hands into pokerstove, it will calculate 0 possible combinations and it won't affect your equity

[Robb]

I doubt CO can fold AA/KK to a shove here

I doubt CO flats AA or KK preflop, so I'm not putting them in his range.

I wouldn't put it in his range preflop, but when he calls a shove, it makes me re-evaluate.

We can't exclude hands from a range permanently, we have to add some back. Especially since the preflop decision is a decision for a few dollars, and he called off his stack on the flop, the flop decision outweighs the preflop decision in magnitude and importance.

tl;dr version: re-evaluate your ranges on each street to account for new information

FWIW, I wouldn't put AA or KK back in. It's so unlikely preflop that I would just include it with Harrington's 5% "junk." He always leaves a small range each street as a "margin of error" to account for when opponents just lose their minds. Like when the CO shows J3 or something ludicrous. If he shows something crazy down, reload, make note. It happens.

No, because tons of people slowplay AA/KK preflop

[Robb]

No, because tons of people slowplay AA/KK preflop

I guess we play different villains. In my experience, less than 1% of villains slow play AA/KK pre at 25nl and lower. I exclude it when I have "no reads," note it whenever I see it.