If one has a set and the other a FD we're only about 23%.

If you include overpairs with the set range it starts to look better.

Hand 0: 33.861% 33.74% 00.12% 46926 162.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 58.759% 58.62% 00.14% 81519 192.00 { 99+, 33 }
Hand 2: 07.380% 07.36% 00.02% 10233 30.00 { KsQs, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, 4s3s }

Maybe I run bad, but I'd say in the last dozen or so times I've been in similar situations, someones had a set.