dumb?

[mrhappy333]

was this just stupid?
PokerStars Game #10374904193: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007/06/10 - 22:15:34 (ET)
Table 'Aegle IV' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: EludeU ($11.65 in chips)
Seat 2: penguinmilk ($27.10 in chips)
Seat 3: mrhappy333 ($24.75 in chips)
Seat 4: I eat glass ($16.85 in chips)
Seat 5: blulineJ ($12.40 in chips)
Seat 6: revo83 ($15.15 in chips)
Seat 7: rms12 ($25.90 in chips)
Seat 8: peconi ($30.15 in chips)
Seat 9: oxyggg ($73.80 in chips)
mrhappy333: posts small blind $0.10
I eat glass: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mrhappy333 [4h 4s]
blulineJ: folds
revo83: folds
rms12: raises $0.75 to $1
peconi: folds
oxyggg: calls $1
EludeU: folds
penguinmilk: calls $1
mrhappy333: calls $0.90
I eat glass: calls $0.75
*** FLOP *** [Tc 4c 7c]
mrhappy333: checks
I eat glass: checks
rms12: checks
oxyggg: bets $3
penguinmilk: folds
mrhappy333: calls $3
I eat glass: folds
rms12: folds
*** TURN *** [Tc 4c 7c] [Qh]
mrhappy333: checks
oxyggg: bets $10
mrhappy333: calls $10
*** RIVER *** [Tc 4c 7c Qh] [7s]
mrhappy333: bets $10.75 and is all-in
oxyggg: calls $10.75
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mrhappy333: shows [4h 4s] (a full house, Fours full of Sevens)
oxyggg: shows [Td Ts] (a full house, Tens full of Sevens)
oxyggg collected $49.95 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $52.50 | Rake $2.55
Board [Tc 4c 7c Qh 7s]
Seat 1: EludeU folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: penguinmilk (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: mrhappy333 (small blind) showed [4h 4s] and lost with a full house, Fours full of Sevens
Seat 4: I eat glass (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: blulineJ folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: revo83 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: rms12 folded on the Flop
Seat 8: peconi folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: oxyggg showed [Td Ts] and won ($49.95) with a full house, Tens full of Sevens

[Chopper]

what do you mean stupid?

the fact that you played your set passively into a flush board?
or
the fact you didnt have odds to draw to your boat/quads on the turn, yet called after he sent you a small message on the flop?

i cant let go of this one on the flop, either. but, i raise.

i certainly dont call the turn bet.

but, if i did, i cannot get away from the boat, either. i may not have bet out, but he would have, and i would have called, too.

set over set...not bad. its rare.

but, into a board with a potential made flush in it...and that aggression...might be a time to drop your set of 4's. different story if YOU had the TTT. top set is VERY different from bottom set.

[Vrax]

i certainly dont call the turn bet.

I'm all-in.

but, if i did, i cannot get away from the boat, either. i may not have bet out, but he would have, and i would have called, too.

With that flop and turn line - open push that river. Flush insta-calls, other weaker hands may figure you for busted Ac and make heroic call.


This hand may be foldable in unraised pot, with lots of money behind and fairly conservative opponent who doesn't like to go broke light. In raised, built huge pot it's absurd to even consider folding. Try to get your stack in before 4th club will make you puke.

Bet/3bet flop
Check/raise all-in on flop
Bet flop, checkraise AI blank turn (it's risky line, but maximizes edge against aggro players with hand&draw)

[Chopper]

you absolutely can get away from this hand, but things have to be played correctly.

you push the turn, and TTT calls you...you are dead.

if you raise the flop, and he RRes you (which he most likely will), you can get away on the turn when he leads out big.

granted you are prolly giving credit for the wrong holding...the flush...but, whats the diff? if you are not getting the odds (implied odds of taking his stack may make you call), you can drop the hand...and save your stack. but you have to realize that this is a situation where there are hands out there that have you drawing virtually dead, and you must figure them out...soon. if you dont, you WILL lose your stack 100% of the time...with this board.

its not easy, but it can be done. but if you check/call, check/call, you never know where you stand with that flush up there. you need to raise somewhere (preferrably the flop when its a bit cheaper) to see. who knows, he may be betting TP or 2 pair or a flush draw, and you may sell him YOUR flush...and he may fold to your raise.

TTT, 777, Ac, and the made flush arent going anywhere...all but the Ac have more equity than you do in the pot. and you need to have a better idea at what you are up against.

this is microstakes, there is no shame in getting out of this hand when someone is bluffing you. if you raise him somewhere, and he plays back...99% of the time, its no bluff.

[mixchange]

yes

[gingerwizard]

You can't get away from this.

Raise the flop. His range is way wider than TT, 77 Acx.
It would probably have gone all in on the flop there as he may push over leaving you committed to call.

If it doesnt you bet the turn hard (if it's not a club) and then when he pushes you have odds to draw against the flush and have to call. You can't EVER fold a set 100BBs deep because you're afraid of quads or an overset. Thats mathematical fact I'm afraid and anyone who tells you otherwise is afraid of monsters under the bed and will lose a lot of money in expectation EVERY SINGLE TIME they fold a set putting opp on an overset.

[Chopper]

i dont fold sets very often, that is true. and neither should anyone else. but when there are 3 of a suit on a board, you need to look for those "monsters." if you dont, you will lose some unnecessary stacks, and you winnings will suffer a bit. nothing you cant recover from, but still.

and yes, his range is wider than TT, 77, Ac. but he wouldnt raise into a flush board like that w/o the flush or TT or 77. and if you raise, and get RRed, and call...then lead the flop...you are just playing silly poker.

you have to watch for the signals when you get them. i guarantee you i lay down a lot of winning hands, but i dont showdown losers often either...and my win rate is fine.

i'm not saying to lay this hand down. i am saying to raise the flop, and see where you stand. if you get pushed over, you may think about laying it down. if you get led into big on the turn, you may think about laying it down. no way you can on the river, though, if you make it that far. i think i get away from this specific situation about 33-50% of the time. and lose my stack the rest of the time.

btw, pushing this flop...or calling an all-in is also -EV. again, with the flush up there...bottom set isnt the monster you may think it is.

[mrhappy333]

Chopper thanks alot, your posts have helped.

This is what I was thinking, when I hit my set and saw 3 clubs I almost just gave up. but when he bet the pot, I figured he had the flush draw.when I called and he bet really hard, I thought he missed and was just trying to push me off. This is where I think I should have just pushed all in, or folded.

But everything you said made sense. Now that I had time to sleep on it, I think it would have been better to just let the bottom set go., if I had TTT, then its a little diff..

[gingerwizard]

You say -EV like you've done the maths. You havn't. But when you do you'll know that you'd have to be sure EARLY in the hand that you were beat and beat by an overset and not the flush. Only by him shoving early and you having a monster read can you get that.

Later the flush possibilities form too much a part of his range and you will have inflated the pot enough to get all in with +EV against his range.

That also means that folding is -EV BTW.

I don't mind you laying down winning hands but I don't think you should advise people to make mathematically incorrect decisions.

[mrhappy333]

ginger, I'm confused a little?
do you think laying down at the turn is -EV?

[mixchange]

oh, I thought you meant creating this thread

never worry about set over set. unless you are cocobill just chalk it up as a cooler.

[jyms]

Set over set means "you go broke" if you can't get it all in, your playing way to passively. Only shut down the river against a huge bet when a flush draw hits and it's an obvious flush. Don't ever think at these stakes your allowed to even pretend you put him on a set. What next?? fold quads because he may have them?

[mrhappy333]

I dont think I was posting this as a set over set, thread. but more as a how do you play your set, when theres 3 suited on the flop, kinda question.

I know set over set happens, and I'm glad when I take someones stack when I have the bigger set. And I know it sucks losing with a lower set, like I had here.

But I really question if I should be in the hand after the flop because of the 3 suited.

[jyms]

Bet the flop hard and reevaluate the turn. If you are betting and getting called or raised your done. And you should know it. You can't give up on the flop because a turn/river pairs is gold against said flush draw. On a board where it flops monotone I would check call and wait for my paired board. Just stay out of trouble until then

[Chopper]

You say -EV like you've done the maths. You havn't. But when you do you'll know that you'd have to be sure EARLY in the hand that you were beat and beat by an overset and not the flush. Only by him shoving early and you having a monster read can you get that.

Later the flush possibilities form too much a part of his range and you will have inflated the pot enough to get all in with +EV against his range.

That also means that folding is -EV BTW.

I don't mind you laying down winning hands but I don't think you should advise people to make mathematically incorrect decisions.

i'm sure you arent trying to be rude. you may just be showing your personality...aggressive. i'm sure it shows in your poker play as well.

no big deal. you have your way, i have mine. thats what a forum is...opinions...not gospel. i never said i did the math...so, good call...inspector clouseau...you proved you are better.

bottom line is: in these lower stakes...

you need to play better hands. no trickery is needed. patience is rewarded.

if this were 200 NL, my advice would be different. but, his reads would set me up to the situation better, too.

imo (i think i've said that before), this is a hand that you CAN get away from. and i said how. but, i also said that i cant lay it down more than 50% of the time.

as for "being sure EARLY," thats why you raise the flop. and it doesnt matter if you are beat at the moment or not...its how the situation will likely develop. besides, there is already a flush up on the board...and two sets that beat you. do you really feel confident here when opponent is betting like this?

sure, he "could" be pushing a draw, he could be bluffing...but again...at these stakes, IT AINT LIKELY!! take heed, and either get aggressive, or get out of the hand. i believe that was my advice.

next time you want to challenge me to a "mine is bigger than yours" showdown, just say so.

[Trashcona]

How would we feel about reraising to $12 on the flop? Is that to much? I like overbetting in this situation so if villain comes of the top it makes the decision to get it all in an easy one. If villain calls, then we push a non club on the turn.

[Chopper]

thats fine, but it kinda commits you to the whole hand.

i would like the minraise. i actually HATE the minraise, but it has its uses. here it looks like you are begging for a call, and what begs for a call here? the flush.

it also doesnt commit too many chips, leaving room to get away. passive, yes. but again, it works. what calls has a strong draw to beat you at the very least (granted you have the outs to call just about anything if you like to). what raises you, has you stomped.

if he calls, i look to be cautious the rest of the way. if he raises, i prolly burn out.

as it turns out, we are crying over spilled milk...villain isnt going anywhere, no matter the bet. and we lose...its just a matter of how much. you cannot win this hand...period.

not that you know that in the middle of everything.

[gingerwizard]

How would we feel about reraising to $12 on the flop? Is that to much? I like overbetting in this situation so if villain comes of the top it makes the decision to get it all in an easy one. If villain calls, then we push a non club on the turn.

Precisely what I would have suggested. OP's line is ok and in line with Trainers advice, but when the board pairs you get it all in and don't worry about the overset. You can get away from sets vs flushes when you play right, but you don't worry about oversets. End of story.

Oh and chopper, the Mathematics does not change at 200NL. It is the same for all limits. Using Maths ain't "trickery," it's the basic idea of making +EV decisions.

Vrax had the right idea. Reread his post.

[Chopper]

[quote="gingerwizard"]

Oh and chopper, the Mathematics does not change at 200NL. It is the same for all limits. Using Maths ain't "trickery," it's the basic idea of making +EV decisions.

you are getting frustrating to me.

i never said the math changed...YOU made the assumption that is what i meant. i said MY ADVICE would change. and the -EV comment, originally, wasnt ever supported by math...YOU made that assumption, too. i was speaking of the situation. and the situation DOES change when you move up in limits.

the same hands will be bet more aggressively requiring either more aggression from you, or better reads. but that is a different story.

you seem to be thinking solely about the math. you have to read the situation as well. sometimes, math will lead you down the wrong road.

now, if you will stop "assuming" i am saying something i havent said, we can get on with something else. damn.

[Liam^]

Am I the only one who is folding preflop here?

[Trashcona]

Am I the only one who is folding preflop here?

...Umm, I don't know if this is a serious question, but I'll go out on a limb and say yes, you're the only one who would fold this preflop. This seems like the perfect place to set hunt. What more could 44 in the sb ask for? Everyone who's entered the pot so far has hero covered, so we have effective stacks of 100BB's. Implied odds make this a no brainer, no?

[mrhappy333]

Flop sets and get paid!

[gingerwizard]

i never said the math changed...YOU made the assumption that is what i meant. i said MY ADVICE would change. and the -EV comment, originally, wasnt ever supported by math...YOU made that assumption, too. i was speaking of the situation. and the situation DOES change when you move up in limits.

you seem to be thinking solely about the math. you have to read the situation as well. sometimes, math will lead you down the wrong road.

EV is a mathematical expression. Saying a decision is +EV means that mathematically making that decision has a positive expectation. Nothing else.

As for "sometimes math will lead you down the wrong road" you have it very wrong. Please read this post again: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...=472170#472170

In particular the third paragraph and some of the later embelishments in the thread explain how hand reading and and all the other "situaltional" aspects of the game lead you to specify your probabilities for winning. Then it's all math. Only if you read the situation wrong can you go down the wrong road.

[Liam^]

Am I the only one who is folding preflop here?

...Umm, I don't know if this is a serious question, but I'll go out on a limb and say yes, you're the only one who would fold this preflop. This seems like the perfect place to set hunt. What more could 44 in the sb ask for? Everyone who's entered the pot so far has hero covered, so we have effective stacks of 100BB's. Implied odds make this a no brainer, no?

It was a serious question preflop raise to 4xbb, you're first to act, and lets face it if you're playing microstakes your postflop play isn't going to be brilliant. How do get everyone elses money when you hit a set, and how do you get away from a set when it's going to lose you all your money?

[Chopper]

Am I the only one who is folding preflop here?

no, other rocks wont play this one here, either. but, if you like good value, you must call here every time. you have multiple callers and a pocket pair with a raise with deep enough stacks already in the hand. easy call pf.

oh, ginger... i forgot you were there. you may go now.

[Liam^]

Duly noted!

[apunisher]

Am I the only one who is folding preflop here?

...Umm, I don't know if this is a serious question, but I'll go out on a limb and say yes, you're the only one who would fold this preflop. This seems like the perfect place to set hunt. What more could 44 in the sb ask for? Everyone who's entered the pot so far has hero covered, so we have effective stacks of 100BB's. Implied odds make this a no brainer, no?

It was a serious question preflop raise to 4xbb, you're first to act, and lets face it if you're playing microstakes your postflop play isn't going to be brilliant. How do get everyone elses money when you hit a set, and how do you get away from a set when it's going to lose you all your money?

To answer ur first question, you bet, and keep betting, and raise over any raises, etc.

To answer your second question, you dont. Or at least, hardly ever, not enough to worry about.

[JB25163]

The only thing I really would have done differently would be to raise the flop. I wouldn't have gotten away from the FH either.

[biondino]

Chopper, you've developed beliefs that are leading you down a dangerous road, where you're making violently -EV plays while believing that your logic for making them is infallible. And your arrogance just means you're not going to give anyone the chance to debate this with you. Your loss (and I mean this in a literal, financial sense.).

[The Odds God]

Just raise the flop (unless the guy is a constant bluffer, then you might risk it and check call until the end) and if a non club comes on the turn, don't be afraid to put all the money in.

[Chopper]

Chopper, you've developed beliefs that are leading you down a dangerous road, where you're making violently -EV plays while believing that your logic for making them is infallible. And your arrogance just means you're not going to give anyone the chance to debate this with you. Your loss (and I mean this in a literal, financial sense.).

partially i am being misunderstood. partially, i am arrogant. all true.

but -EV, to me, is also making a call in a BAD situation...regardless of what the math tells you. do i lay KK down when i am 95% sure i'm up against AA? no. but do i lay sets down into flush boards? yes. all the time? no, rarely, actually. but when i do not even have the odds to draw to my boat, and the villain is sending me a message, i TEST HIM...if he continues, i am looking to drop the hand (the turn, here). if i dont, can i fold this river? no. do i open push? prolly, not. paired boards can kill action with flushes, too.

i never said it was "my way or the highway," did i? i offered my line. am i confident in it? yes. will i defend it? yes. if that makes me arrogant...so be it.

however, the flame i got was not received (accurately or not) as a "debate." it was a slam at me not knowing what the hell i am talking about...and giving bad advice. and i will vehemently defend myself, and my integrity, against those kinds of attacks.

is this situation "violently -EV," in a math sense? it depends on your villain's range. and you and i both know we cannot know EXACTLY what the cards are. therefore, your ranges and mine will differ. if you run a wider range than i do through pokerstove, you will have a hugely different equity in the pot than i will. my "range" is that villain likely has TT, 77, AcX, or any two clubs. which means...you are beat! villain has 65% equity in this pot. if you put him on a draw only, you have a HUGE equity share...true.

but against "my range," i raise the flop, and look to get out when played back at.

either way, he bets out again on the turn. what do we think villain likely has here? only a draw? it is more likely that we are beat, than ahead...imo. two pair doesnt do this. TP doesnt do this. he is just as afraid of the flush as we are...if he doesnt have it. being beat here also takes into consideration another factor...table stakes. not a lot of moves down here made. bet or fold. if they call, they are likely behind. that is why you need to grab the initiative in this hand...to see if villain will play back at you.

say what you will about making a -EV decision (because your ranges differ from mine).

but math or not...this is a concept that any book would denounce for sure...in lower stakes you need to avoid marginal situations! if you see one developing, play cautiously, and control the pot. you dont go "balls to the wall" just because you have a mathematical "edge." again, i know that sounds horrible, but at LOW STAKES, you simply cannot make the moves you can higher up the ladder. if you are over 200 NL (maybe lower in today's environment), you MUST push edges like these w/o a better read because it is true, sets hold up a lot, and you shouldnt worry about overboats, etc. but you prolly would have raised the flop, or preflop, while it was cheaper...to find out more info on villains hand.

[Pelion]

I think you played all of postflop badly. Bet the flop. This is the perfect spot to extract value since you know that 9 times out of 10 the scare card is the flush card.

As played the turn is a pretty easy fold since you have nowhere near the nuts and the pot is tiny and you havnt noticed anything about villain pushing top pair or the A high draw here. If you arent folding the turn you should push. Calling is terrible.


Once you boat up a fold would be terrible for the stack sizes.


@biondino. Im pretty sure chopper isnt saying you can use logic to go against the math. Hes saying that before you use the math you use some logic to justify where you are going with it.


e.g.

Math says villain is more likely to have 820 than AcKc since there are more possible combinations.

Logic + Math says villain is more likely to have AcKc than 82o since he played it more like AKs than like 82o.

You dont just work out the EV by putting him on any range or even any range that connected with the board. You work it out by putting him on a likely range based on board texture/ opponent tendancies etc. In this case a $10 turn bet is far more likely to be a set (all of which beat us) or a flush than it is to be a worse hand so the EV of raising or calling is probably negative. You can math it out with a likely range. Ill probably do that later.

The last point is that laying down winning hands in small pots in slightly behind / way ahead situations is not a mistake in NLHE if there is plenty of money behind. The way this hand was played makes this even more relevent since we are out of position on the river so we have to check and hope he bluffs Acx and value bets weaker hands or we have to value bet against 2 pair and watch Acx fold.
If we push the turn this isnt as big a factor since he probably calls with the A high draw anyway but even then he might fold it.

[biondino]

do i lay KK down when i am 95% sure i'm up against AA? no

Wow. Why do you hate maths? Just look at this sentence. If you are sure you are 95% against AA THEN YOU LAY DOWN KK. You are something like 17% to win in this precise situation.

As Pelion argues eruditely, there are compelling reasons to lay down a set in this hand. But fighting the mathematics isn't one of them. It will always win.

[Pelion]

do i lay KK down when i am 95% sure i'm up against AA? no

Wow you should definatly lay down KK when you are 95% sure you are against AA unless the pot is huuuuuuuuuuuge.

The point is you will very rarely be 95% sure you are against AA (OR you will be wrong). Check through PT. Look at all of the times you were 95% sure you were against AA and count the percentage of the time you were against AA. If it is actually 95% then you are a god at hand reading and should definately start to trust your reads more. I doubt it though.

[Lithium]

For what it is worth, I don't think the hand was played badly, although I agree with the comments that postflop you should have lead out with a substantial bet (at least .8xpot) to see if anyone was on the flush. If you get raised, then you have a good hunch you should lay it down (unless the villian has just been crazy gambling the whole time).

I also wouldn't have put the villian on a made flush postflop, since his bet was not pot-sized and signalled a little weakness. You actually may have been able to get him to lay down his overset with a larger leadin bet/more aggression, as that might have indicated a made flush.

The turn didn't improve the board any and the villian did not make a pot sized bet there either (.66xpot). At this point, I would put him on the nut flush draw or top two and shove.

Anyway, just my 2 cents.

[Silly String]

do i lay KK down when i am 95% sure i'm up against AA? no

Wow. Why do you hate maths? Just look at this sentence. If you are sure you are 95% against AA THEN YOU LAY DOWN KK. You are something like 17% to win in this precise situation.

As Pelion argues eruditely, there are compelling reasons to lay down a set in this hand. But fighting the mathematics isn't one of them. It will always win.

If you can't tell his AA KK example was tongue in cheek then you have really gotten into the internet pissing match way too deeply. Why not start arguing over misspelled words next?
The hand can be laid down. I probably shouldn't be against many villains. Without a read, felting this is no bigger mistake than folding it early. The board gave OP the escape hatch and he failed to use it.

[Pelion]

If you can't tell his AA KK example was tongue in cheek then you have really gotten into the internet pissing match way too deeply. Why not start arguing over misspelled words next?

Because misspelled words arent a pretty important poker concept. This is.

[Chopper]

For what it is worth, I don't think the hand was played badly, although I agree with the comments that postflop you should have lead out with a substantial bet (at least .8xpot) to see if anyone was on the flush. If you get raised, then you have a good hunch you should lay it down (unless the villian has just been crazy gambling the whole time).

I also wouldn't have put the villian on a made flush postflop, since his bet was not pot-sized and signalled a little weakness. You actually may have been able to get him to lay down his overset with a larger leadin bet/more aggression, as that might have indicated a made flush.

The turn didn't improve the board any and the villian did not make a pot sized bet there either (.66xpot). At this point, I would put him on the nut flush draw or top two and shove.

Anyway, just my 2 cents.

sorry to continue this... but... NO NO NO!!

as said too much..."at THESE STAKES" the set of T's is NOT going anywhere unless he is an absolute nitty rock. you will NOT make him fold.

and because "his bet was not pot-sized" is the classic value-bet. just because someone doesnt bet pot...does NOT mean they are weak. all too often, it means they are quite CONFIDENT they are best, and will stay that way. if thats what some of you guys think, then i am still way underusing the 1/2 or 2/3 pot bet on all streets.

and what the hell are you saying about the .66X turn bet? it was $10 into an $11 pot, by my math. you had 5 see the flop for a buck ($5), and 2 call the $3 flop bet...$5 + 2($3) = $11. and with that math, you would shove over thinking the value-betting MADE flush is still on a draw? wow.

the more scared a player is...or the more vulnerable he is...or the more he is trying to "protect" what he think is best (for the moment), the MORE he will bet. not less.

this guy was advertising/representing STRENGTH, not weakness.

if a guy can bluff like this with top 2 or just a draw...then, more power to him...i'll have a lot of his money in the future.

not trying to be rude. but, to me, that was the opposite of what i was thinking.

[Chopper]

and, yes, the KK v AA comment was very tongue-in-cheek.

but it serves it's purpose. no, pf, you dont lay KK down...but maybe 3 times in your life...and prolly NEVER "at THESE stakes."

but, it still CAN be done. it just shouldnt be down here.

i think pelion has summed me up the best. you must look at the situation/logic...and then do the math. the situation "sets up" the math.

and if you are wrong, you are wrong. you learn, and get better next time...with less monies...lol.

[Chopper]

heres an example of logic v math. sorry, but it just popped into my head.

do any of you also play limit? if so...

you have A6s in lp. you limp after several limpers. the guy behind you raises, the others call. do you? math says yes.

but what about if the guy behind you raises, and another 3bets...all the others call 2 cold. do you? math says yes.

but logic...may say no. your A6s is very likely dominated here. leaving your only REAL hope on the flush draw hitting the flop.

what if it were KQs? you are likely dominated, AND you arent even drawing towards the nuts..in all probability. again, logic...may say no.

you have to look at both sides of the situation before you make your move. if you bet/call/raise/fold solely on the math...you can make the wrong decision for the SPECIFIC hand.

that was all i was saying about the 444 v TTT hand above. yes, the math may be compelling...but logic should scream at you there is a high liklihood you are beat, too. and, make your decision when it is CHEAP...not when the pot is so huge, you have to call...after you realize you may have made a mistake.

[gingerwizard]

heres an example of logic v math. sorry, but it just popped into my head.

do any of you also play limit? if so...

you have A6s in lp. you limp after several limpers. the guy behind you raises, the others call. do you? math says yes.

but what about if the guy behind you raises, and another 3bets...all the others call 2 cold. do you? math says yes.

but logic...may say no. your A6s is very likely dominated here. leaving your only REAL hope on the flush draw hitting the flop.

what if it were KQs? you are likely dominated, AND you arent even drawing towards the nuts..in all probability. again, logic...may say no.

you have to look at both sides of the situation before you make your move. if you bet/call/raise/fold solely on the math...you can make the wrong decision for the SPECIFIC hand.

OH MY GOD! YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND THE "MATH."

What does "math says yes" mean? You use logic to set up the problem then work it out mathematically. If you havn't even used logic "MATH SAYS F'ALL." Read the post I quoted to you explaining how you actually use the maths.

In a nutshell:
Look at the situation, estimate your opponents range, use that distribution to come up with probabilities for winning/losing a hand. Evaluate your utility for money, work out your utilities for the monies involved, work out expected utility for each decision, and choose the decision with the highest expected utiltiy.

As discussed if you are properly rolled and not playing scared you should be able to treat your utility for money as linear, I.e. just the absolute value of the money involved.

If the Math says yes, (and we're talking about the real math, not whatever you have in your mind to be the math,) then you say yes or you are WRONG. No arguements. Being a good poker player means being able to shoot through a rough version of the maths, being a GREAT poker player means being able to evaluate the probabilities EXTREMELY well.