I think you played all of postflop badly. Bet the flop. This is the perfect spot to extract value since you know that 9 times out of 10 the scare card is the flush card.

As played the turn is a pretty easy fold since you have nowhere near the nuts and the pot is tiny and you havnt noticed anything about villain pushing top pair or the A high draw here. If you arent folding the turn you should push. Calling is terrible.


Once you boat up a fold would be terrible for the stack sizes.


@biondino. Im pretty sure chopper isnt saying you can use logic to go against the math. Hes saying that before you use the math you use some logic to justify where you are going with it.


e.g.

Math says villain is more likely to have 820 than AcKc since there are more possible combinations.

Logic + Math says villain is more likely to have AcKc than 82o since he played it more like AKs than like 82o.

You dont just work out the EV by putting him on any range or even any range that connected with the board. You work it out by putting him on a likely range based on board texture/ opponent tendancies etc. In this case a $10 turn bet is far more likely to be a set (all of which beat us) or a flush than it is to be a worse hand so the EV of raising or calling is probably negative. You can math it out with a likely range. Ill probably do that later.

The last point is that laying down winning hands in small pots in slightly behind / way ahead situations is not a mistake in NLHE if there is plenty of money behind. The way this hand was played makes this even more relevent since we are out of position on the river so we have to check and hope he bluffs Acx and value bets weaker hands or we have to value bet against 2 pair and watch Acx fold.
If we push the turn this isnt as big a factor since he probably calls with the A high draw anyway but even then he might fold it.