Quote Originally Posted by gingerwizard
You say -EV like you've done the maths. You havn't. But when you do you'll know that you'd have to be sure EARLY in the hand that you were beat and beat by an overset and not the flush. Only by him shoving early and you having a monster read can you get that.

Later the flush possibilities form too much a part of his range and you will have inflated the pot enough to get all in with +EV against his range.

That also means that folding is -EV BTW.

I don't mind you laying down winning hands but I don't think you should advise people to make mathematically incorrect decisions.
i'm sure you arent trying to be rude. you may just be showing your personality...aggressive. i'm sure it shows in your poker play as well.

no big deal. you have your way, i have mine. thats what a forum is...opinions...not gospel. i never said i did the math...so, good call...inspector clouseau...you proved you are better.

bottom line is: in these lower stakes...

you need to play better hands. no trickery is needed. patience is rewarded.

if this were 200 NL, my advice would be different. but, his reads would set me up to the situation better, too.

imo (i think i've said that before), this is a hand that you CAN get away from. and i said how. but, i also said that i cant lay it down more than 50% of the time.

as for "being sure EARLY," thats why you raise the flop. and it doesnt matter if you are beat at the moment or not...its how the situation will likely develop. besides, there is already a flush up on the board...and two sets that beat you. do you really feel confident here when opponent is betting like this?

sure, he "could" be pushing a draw, he could be bluffing...but again...at these stakes, IT AINT LIKELY!! take heed, and either get aggressive, or get out of the hand. i believe that was my advice.

next time you want to challenge me to a "mine is bigger than yours" showdown, just say so.