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*Edited to remove my hole cards. Sorry Spoon.
I have 500 hands on this villian, but I’ve only played two hands with him and just one that meets the criteria of being OOP.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) ($4.61)
BB ($6.62)
Button ($5.31)
Preflop: Hero is SB with some cards
Button bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.18, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.45) Q , 8 , J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.30
My range is for the SB {99+, AJs+, AQo+, KQ}
Villian stats are 20/15/3.9 (3bet), ATS=28%, C-bet=35%, Fold to C-Bet=50%, Fold to 3-Bet=50%
When I see stats like these at 5NL, I start with the assumption that he is a solid, straight-forward player who doesn’t get too fancy and plays for value the majority of time. I think a looser or a tighter player would be more exploitable.
Against a player like this, I tend to play for value as well. I don’t want to get involved without decent equity. Villian doesn’t steal an outrageous amount. We could consider 3-bet bluffing occasionally, but with a Fold to 3-bet of only 50%, we might be owning ourselves. Post flop, his C-Bet % is very low, indicating a fit or fold player, yet his Fold to C-Bet is also low, which indicates that he doesn’t play post-flop without decent equity or that he likes to see Turn cards. I don't have WTSD% or W$SD% on my HUD. I guess it would be a good idea to start looking at those stats.
To exploit this player, I would bet for value pre-flop and post-flop. Is that exploiting? I guess, if villian thinks I'm nitty, I could probably bluff 3-bet some Button steals and even donk bet more flops w/air (OOP) to see how he reacts. I don't really know the best way to exploit him.
In this particular hand, villian could be stealing w/air since he probably sees me as a nitty player who doesn't 3-bet much. When I call, he has to think I have a decent hand. The flop is very wet and I don't want to let him have a free card or draw too cheaply (I probably should have bet at least .35). My donk bet takes the initiative in the hand and probably looks like a value bet. He would call with AQ, KT, any flush draw 78s+, and probably raise KT of diamonds, 88, JJ+.
Typically, post-flop, I would bet 75% of pot on the flop and Turn, and maybe check/call the River if no draws completed. But for this exercise, on a drier board, maybe I could exploit Villian by trying for 3-streets of value using smaller bet-sizes with TPTK, 2-pair+ type hands, as he may be a bit of a calling station post-flop with middle pair type hands.
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