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Originally Posted by surviva316
12/8 is really tight at 6m over 100 hands. I think his range is pretty much gonna be 33,99- JJ and then a large handful of QQ/JTs/AT/ straight draws. FWIW, I don't recall if PS has a "Pot" button, but this is pot minus one click, which is an extremely value-heavy bet size from a straight forward villain in a spot where he has all the reason in the world to be straight forward (namely, value betting a rock).
Anyway, this range gives us somewhere in the 55-60% equity range, which is enough to continue even though we're OOP and a little uncertain what his betting pattern is gonna be on future streets.
3b'ing to force the megafish out and to give villain a chance to get away from the hands we're ahead of seems like a silly way to continue.
As a general game plan, I can see the merit of flatting a strong hand to this kind of action, in an attempt to keep the whale in. That being said, to avoid getting in this kind of spot in the first place, since the whale is so passive, we REALLY should be thinking about donking this flop. The whale has a very wide continuing range on this board I would imagine.
As played, any card 8 and up has the strong potential to be a bad card, barring us boating up. Especially if we see the turn 3 way, and especially since we're OOP to both. That's 50% of the deck. What's your plan on a brick 2 if we check, fish checks and btn bets $3-$4?
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