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Murd0c

03-16-2006, 03:57 PM Post subject: Suited Connector odds

#1 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Nov 2005

Posts: 169

Heya all I've been looking to incorporate a few more more hands into my ring game lately and figured suited connectors ( no gap ) would be ideal. I figure in order to make money on the hand I need to hit either:

-two pair
-trips
-straight draw
-straight
-flush draw
-flush

So I think that my odds of having a made hand on the flop are:

-flopping EXACTLY two pair by pairing EACH of your hole cards 2.02%
-flopping EXACTLY trips by flopping two cards to one hole card 1.347%
-flopping EXACTLY a full house, trips of one hole card and pairing the other 0.092%
-flopping EXACTLY four of a kind, three cards to one of your hole cards 0.01%
-flopping a straight (including the slight chance of a straight flush in some cases) 1.306%
-flopping a flush (including the slight chance of a straight flush in some cases) 0.842%
Total: 5.617%

If I add straight draws and flush draws it becomes:
-Straight Draw 10.449%
-Flush Draw 10.944%
Total: 27.01%

By comparison the only other "drawing hand" I call with right now preflop is low pocket pairs. The chance of them making trips (or better) is 12%.

So my guess here is that suited connectors are generally only profitable if your post-flop skills are very good? Or are they so good becuase of their implied odds?

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Fnord

03-16-2006, 04:04 PM Post subject: Re: Suited Connector odds

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Murd0c

Heya all I've been looking to incorporate a few more more hands into my ring game lately and figured suited connectors ( no gap ) would be ideal.

When looking to add hands to your play, I think focusing on hole cards so much is the wrong approach.

For what it's worth, if I think someone has a hand, I won't call with a SC unless I'm getting 40:1 or better. For the most part, I'm not a see a flop and try to hit something kind of guy. Hold'em just doesn't like to play like that.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

dpe8598

03-16-2006, 05:27 PM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 261

Murdoc, your instinct is right. Because you are only just better than 1 in 20 at hitting something decent on the flop w/ a couple of suited connectors, you need to be able to take down a few pots with some good post flop play to make these hands worth it.

However, don't get to caught up in the chances of hitting a made hand on the flop, you can also hit a great drawing hand that can pay off or that can lead to you taking down a pot on a semi-bluff.

By and large though, far too many players call raises w/ these hands trying to be one of their fav. players on TV. Then, when they do hit they feel like geniuses and they are not noticing the money that they are squandering away. I'm guessing if more of these players had poker tracker, they would be surprised at what they are losing.

I final point about suited connectors. These are bets played at a certain kind of table/ against certain kinds of players. Your looking to play it against people that will fold easy when they are weak (here you are taking down pots post flop) and cannot fold a hand when they are moderately strong (here you are destacking people when you are hitting your big hand). Don't get in pissing wars over pots w/ this hand against other types of players.

Renton

03-16-2006, 05:55 PM Post subject: Re: Suited Connector odds

#4 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Atlanta, GA, USA

Posts: 5,991

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murd0c

Heya all I've been looking to incorporate a few more more hands into my ring game lately and figured suited connectors ( no gap ) would be ideal. ?

Don't underestimate gappers. The only have a 25% less chance of hitting a straight than connectors do, but they more than make up for that by how impossible they are to detect (= implied odds).

jackvance

03-16-2006, 07:27 PM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Thanks for these odds, I was just about to make a post asking for them

So anyway, currently I don't play em.. if I would then I'd have to look into those "draw odds", because with these, 4 times out of 5 if you hit something, it's gonna be a "draw".

Ok maybe I'll quickly do that now. So:
- open-ended straight draw: 32% to hit em on turn+river, about half that to hit em on the turn. So for me.. calculating implied odds, maybe only go for it if you can bet 1/4-1/5th of the pot.
Pot is $1? 20 cents is a go.
- flush draw: 36% on turn+river, half that on river. So for me, same thing because the implied odds are lower (people spot flushes a lot more than straights) so again 1/4-1/5th of the pot or fold.
Pot is $1? 20 cents is a go.
- both at the same time: 56% on turn+river, half that on turn. So I'll go with this if I can bet 1/3-1/2 (probably closer to 1/3) of the pot.
Pot is $1? 40 cents is a go.

Renton

03-16-2006, 07:32 PM

#6 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Atlanta, GA, USA

Posts: 5,991

A few rules of thumb to remember that have helped me:

1. Only mess around with suited connectors/gappers if there are at least 2-3 limpers ahead of you and you are in LP.

2. Odds of hitting a straight or a flush draw on the next card is roughly 20%. Don't worry about the 32% thing. Its only relevant when you are all in. Whenever there is more betting to happen on later streets, you must go with the 20% number.

3. True, flushes don't have much implied odds, but if you are drawing to the nut flush, and you suspect someone else is drawing to a lesser flush, you're implied odds are enormous.

Fnord

03-16-2006, 07:33 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

2. Odds of hitting a straight or a flush draw on the next card is roughly 20%. Don't worry about the 32% thing. Its only relevant when you are all in. Whenever there is more betting to happen on later streets, you must go with the 20% number.

QFT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

jackvance

03-16-2006, 07:46 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Posts: 2,910

Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

I went with 16% here because I totally agree that you can't go with 32% because of the raise after the turn. So I added a little for implied odds (ie, the raise comes after you hit, you can take that too). I took it all a bit low as a personal guideline, just so the odds are in your favor and you can expect to win money if you play by them. If you play exactly on the odds, you can expect only to break even in the long run here, so no dice there I suppose.

Quote:

3. True, flushes don't have much implied odds, but if you are drawing to the nut flush, and you suspect someone else is drawing to a lesser flush, you're implied odds are enormous.

Yeah but your odds are a lot lower because then two outs are in your opponent's hand already. Plus the chance of this situation occurring is rather low imo.

I have one more question.. because I totally agree that good post-flop play is essential if you want to toy with these kinds of cards. Personally, my biggest wins have come from low pp's hitting their set.
- to be completely honest, since today, they come from straight and flush draws hitting through, but when I wasn't even going for them, much less knew there was a draw in play, so that doesn't really count-
So anyway, for my pp's, I'm gonna need better postflop play. Currently it is rather limited to:
If I sense some weakness, and I have nothing or near-nothing, maybe throw in some money (not too little) and hope for some folds.
Any help or personal experiences here are appreciated.

Renton

03-16-2006, 07:54 PM

#9 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Atlanta, GA, USA

Posts: 5,991

Quote:

Originally Posted by jackvance

Quote:

3. True, flushes don't have much implied odds, but if you are drawing to the nut flush, and you suspect someone else is drawing to a lesser flush, you're implied odds are enormous.

Yeah but your odds are a lot lower because then two outs are in your opponent's hand already. Plus the chance of this situation occurring is rather low imo.

The two less outs thing is a subtlety. You still have real good chances of making the flush. And as far as this not happening often, your right. It happens more than you might think though. If you're in a five way pot and drawing to the flush, depending on the texture of the flop, chances are someone else is drawing to one too. However, one of the most common was of stacking someone with the nut flush happens when you limp in with Axs and flop the flush. Oftentimes someone will hang around in that hand with the K and hope for the fourth flush card. Then you take their stack.

dev

03-23-2006, 11:35 PM

#10 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: swonging and swonging

Posts: 1,550

Don't forget the superdraw. A pair and a draw or two draws, or a pair and two draws are very powerful hands.

:Ad::Js: vs.

with a flop of

is 60/40 in favor of the 97s! Take away the gutshot and the gapper is a little better than 50%.

There is one other thing to consider about suited connecters and gappers. This applies more to real-world play than online play I think.

The concept is that your goal is to stack your opponents. When you're in a house game or a small card room, and you're playing a live game, it's enough to stay alive playing hands like this until you hit a monster or a superdraw and you're opponent gets a hand they can't lay. Most people at these games have limited buy-ins, so rather than grinding out small edges, you can just float until you get a chance to stack them. You're playing for one big pot, and these are the hands that will crack their overpair, tptk, top two, trips, etc. This is the style that Doyle Brunson is talking about in SS.

bearing

03-24-2006, 01:56 PM

#11 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: Uk

Posts: 33

say you called a raise with a suited connector and flop a draw.
Not a huge draw just either a open ended or a flush draw.
Lets also say its against AA-TT and AK-AJ everytime. If you just went all in every time would you make enough money from the times he folds?
what happens if you add in when you get a bigger draw like a pair and a flush draw, and the rest? when you flop 2 pair? 3 of a kind?
Does anyone ever do this? Is it profitable at all as a 'play'?
How about just against really good players versus really bad players?
good players can fold more i guess when you're draw isnt too strong, bad players more inclined to call. But they'll call when you have a monster/major draw too.
im just curious about this and would love to hear some views and tactics.

you cant handle the truth!

Renton

03-24-2006, 01:59 PM

#12 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Atlanta, GA, USA

Posts: 5,991

Quote:

Originally Posted by bearing

I only open push all in when I know exactly whats in villains hand, I have that beat, and I am almost positive he'll call. Like when I call a preflop raise with 33 and the flop comes AA3. If he bets strong on the flop and turn, I usually just push on the river cuz I know he's calling with trip aces.

dev

03-24-2006, 04:52 PM

#13 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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This all depends on the size of the pot, the type of opponent, etc.

Rules aren't all that effective in poker, partly because of exceptions, partly because a good player can take advantage of your rules while playing against you.

Anyway, if we were to make a rule, it would be something like: Push AI after the flop when you flop a draw with at least 8 outs in a raised pot when heads up against a tight opponent who has not seen you make this move and show down.

Rules, rotes, and set strats have no business in poker. They might make you some money, but you're almost always giving up some potential profits. Play active poker, play every situation like it's unique. It's easier live, because there's more information available, but even online most situations are pretty unique.

Check out my self-deprecation here!

nish81

07-05-2009, 11:51 AM

#14 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2009

Posts: 295

so in looking for info about suited connectors and how to play them right (for that point in the future when I consider adding them to my game

) I came across this nice informative thread. bumped, incase anyone's interested in the same thing

<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.

JR: lets do it JUAN
JR: mono e mono
JR: man to man
JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds

daven

07-05-2009, 12:18 PM

#15 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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Posts: 5,805

nice find.

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

littleogre

07-05-2009, 01:06 PM

#16 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2004

Posts: 1,344

littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past

2p2 has a thread where a bunch of smart people did a lot of math and they came to the conclusion that sc cards cards can be played similarly to small pairs. I personally would think that they would need much better implied odds. You should play very aggressively whether you hit a str8/flush or draw.

nish81

07-05-2009, 05:07 PM

#17 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2009

Posts: 295

I never understood, why would you play aggressively when you hit a draw? Don't draws rely on implied odds, so you should try to see the next card as cheaply as possibly? I also read quite a few times in ISF's strategy articles that draws on the flop should be bet/shoved, or something similar. Aside from balancing your range and fold equity, two things which I think matter less at 2nl, is there a good reason for this?

<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.

JR: lets do it JUAN
JR: mono e mono
JR: man to man
JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds

Stacks

07-05-2009, 05:49 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by nish81

Aside from balancing your range and fold equity, two things which I think matter less at 2nl, is there a good reason for this?

This is basically why it's profitable. Because draws generally have stable equity across a variable range of hands, yet variable equity on future streets, it some instances it benefits from just getting the money in when your equity is the highest (aka the flop).

With a very strong draw, like a combo oesd and flush draw, we usually have the best hand on the flop, as we have 15 or so outs. Therefore, we can reasonably bet/raise/shove whatever on the flop in most cases because we have >50% equity against villain's stacking off range. Which means this hand fits in our A range, and should be played like a nut hand.

With other strong draws, such as oesd or nut flush, etc., we can also profitably get the money in on the flop. This is not because we have >50% equity against villain's continuing range. However, it's because we are semibluffing with like 36% equity, and we have enough fold equity for it to be profitable. Therefore, we can bet/raise and benefit from fold equity when villain folds better hands. And also still have the needed equity to get the money in if he shoves with his other better hands. As fold equity decreases, so should our frequency of betting/raise on the flop, as we know it's not profitable to be putting in money with less than <50% equity if villain doesn't fold often enough.

With weaker draws, like non-nut flush draws, gutshots, etc, while it still might be profitable to bet/raise on the flop, it becomes a bit less profitable. Because in most cases other villain's are playing their ranges in a similar fashion, which means in most cases they are bet/shoving their nut flush draws, and other nut hands, which means with a weak draw we could be getting it in against no only made hands (which we are behind), but also better draws (which are usually crushing us). So these marginal draws likely benefit from being played a bit more passively and calling, instead of raising.

But yes, we can raise/shove draws on the flop in most cases because of fold equity, and it also balances our ranges, which leads to getting more action from worse made hands. If we see a flop where we only raise our nut made hands, such as sets, if our villain's realize that then they can play pretty straightforwardly against us. If we raise our draws and sets, they can make quite a few mistakes in some spots.

nish81

07-07-2009, 01:42 PM

#19 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2009

Posts: 295

Thank you stax, for the clear and helpful explanation as always

<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.

JR: lets do it JUAN
JR: mono e mono
JR: man to man
JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds

Lucothefish

07-07-2009, 02:13 PM

#20 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2009

Location: Cretaceous Park

Posts: 701

Lucothefish will become famous soon enough

One thing stacks didn't mention - when IP with a draw and you raise the flop and get flat called, you will often get checked to on the turn, giving you the chance to check behind for a free river card.

<@d0zer> how will you learn if I don't berate you harshly?

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