10NL QQ UTG against deep stack BB on 3-bet flop OESD

Villain: I've seen him limp/fold from any position, limp/min-bet OTF. I've seem him min-raise the BTN and fold to a min-bet OTF KT7ss, limp UTG+1 w/ 65s (checked it down until he rivered a gut-shot and bet pot).
He doubled up a few orbits back w/ A4s when he called a huge 3-bet IP vs. the BB. He flopped top 2-pair called flop C-bet and called turn jam. Other guy had JJ.
Basically, I've seen him do a lot of weak and passive stuff.

Bovada - $0.10 NLHE - 9 players

Hero UTG: $18.12
UTG+1: $3.25
MP1: $12.73
MP2: $2.90
HJ: $6.21
CO: $7.51
BTN: $10.15
SB: $10.51
BB: $20.34

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q Q
Hero raises to $0.40, 7 folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) K J T
BB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, BB raises $4.50, Hero ...

So my thoughts at this point are: $3.00 to call a pot of $4.25, so pot odds are 41%. A 3-bet flop is a rare thing at 10NL on Bovada, so I think his range is
Pre-flop:
{JJ-22,AQs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-A9o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo }
Flop w/ 3-bet:
{ JJ-TT,AQs-ATs,KTs+,Q9s+,JTs,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo }

Which, I'm startled to find, I still have over 50% equity against. Even though his range is narrowed down to straights, sets, 2 pair and pr+OESD. Problem is... this is not an all-in call for both cards... I have to call for 1 card and probably fold OTT. (Is this bad thinking?)

My dilemma is this: I need 43% equity on a single draw, I don't think my QQ are good, and I need to draw an A, Q or 9 to make a hand. That's 10 outs at best, and that's ~21% equity on the draw.

We started with 180bb ESS, so we're really deep and implieds on the draw could make a good call... or they could kill my action.. or make a chop... or I could be basically drawing dead against AQ (even though I have blockers)... or I make my straight and the board pairs, I lose to a boat...

Basically I'm scared shitless by this 3-bet and I don't know what to do here. It's my own fault for not having a plan when I raised.

So let's make a plan for next time.

This hand should be added to the digest as a lesson in not fucking raising for no apparent reason than LOL PAIR + DRAW when you have reverse implied odds against your ass like a motherfucker.

Point of a semibluff is that your opponent folds sometimes.

He's never folding when he leads out though on a board that smacks your range in the face.
If u think he's spazzy or has a weak range, call. But what's hes done this hand is completely different from what he's done in your reads post.

Hey lets raise the flop so the villain can 3b us and we are forced to fold a hand that had a tonne of equity!!!!11 weeeeee

A lot of self-pity in the room.

Seems like I'm not the first one to make this mistake, eh?

How about something less emotional, then? Just a thought.

So Hero flats the bet OTF, then what? What turn cards should Hero station call? What should Hero get away from? Or should Hero just fold OTF?

Villain sucks, but has a strong range. So hit and stack him. Don't make it complicated.

Why would you want to fold or raise when you have a draw to the nuts against a fish who'll pay you off?

Originally Posted by JKDS

Villain sucks, but has a strong range. So hit and stack him. Don't make it complicated.

Yeah, I should try that every hand. Winning!
So what happens on the 83% of the time when I don't catch a straight OTT? What about the 4.3% of the time when I catch a set and now there's a 4-straight board?

How does Villain view my range when I flat OTF? Does reverse implied odds kill any action on a draw? Can I reasonably expect value on later streets when I hit an A or a Q?

Originally Posted by JKDS

Why would you want to fold or raise when you have a draw to the nuts against a fish who'll pay you off?

I make mistakes. I don't want to play badly.

Also, I'm not convinced Villain will pay me off in all cases.


What % of the time can Villain be bluffing here? Maybe I'm the one to answer that question, but I've posted all the stuff I knew about Villain, and I'm lost on what a reasonable guess would be.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

A lot of self-pity in the room.

Seems like I'm not the first one to make this mistake, eh?

How about something less emotional, then? Just a thought.

So Hero flats the bet OTF, then what? What turn cards should Hero station call? What should Hero get away from? Or should Hero just fold OTF?

hero flats the flop
hero calls most every turn except like a J or T
hero folds most every river except those that improve him

Your condition must make your relationship with Agnes very complicated MMM.

To which of my many conditions are you referring?

EDIT: WTF?!? I got tha aids!?!

Awwwwwwww, maaaaaaan!

OK, which one of you monkey molesters gave me tha aids?

Originally Posted by JKDS

Point of a semibluff is that your opponent folds sometimes.

He's never folding when he leads out though on a board that smacks your range in the face.

I think that this is your critical piece of info right here. Unless you've seen him bluff/donk OOP against a draw heavy board, then he's showing a lot more strength than his previous play indicated, which means he's probably got the straight.

In this case, you have a choice. Throw out a raise to his OTF BET TO see if he'll fold a possible two pair, or call for drawing odds to his original bet. I don't like the raise OTF due to the negative implied odds Spoon mentioned. In this case, when you raised and he reraised you, he has the goods, and you would have to draw with bad odds to continue.

Call or R/F OTF due to his weak play previously. Fold to his re-raise OTF. You're throwing away money to continue after his re-raise.

A call here on the flop and hope to see your ace lol, then i'd check down.... Honestly the re-raise is out of question in this spot...

FWIW, the fishie had 86o

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

FWIW, the fishie had 86o

NOBODY CARES, DON'T POST FUCKING RESULTS FOR FUCK'S SAKE

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

NOBODY CARES, DON'T POST [...] RESULTS [...]

Nobody cares?!?

Even though not a single person who replied to this thread posted suspicions that this villain was on a bluff?

This was one of the hands that got me to thinking that I know nothing about putting villains on ranges if I can't even assume there's some percentage of bluffs in a villain's range.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Nobody cares?!?

Even though not a single person who replied to this thread posted suspicions that this villain was on a bluff?

This was one of the hands that got me to thinking that I know nothing about putting villains on ranges if I can't even assume there's some percentage of bluffs in a villain's range.

Harrington's law - always assign at least 10% chance it's a bluff.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Nobody cares?!?

Even though not a single person who replied to this thread posted suspicions that this villain was on a bluff?

This was one of the hands that got me to thinking that I know nothing about putting villains on ranges if I can't even assume there's some percentage of bluffs in a villain's range.

That is correct. Nobody cares. You should not post the results.

Additionally, the bold is irrelevant. The Villain clearly had a strong range. Having a small percentage of bluffs in his range does not change that.

Spoon: