These guys talk about her behavior as being consistent with honesty. I'd take it with a grain of salt because body language stuff is more art than science, but a lot of what they say rings true.
10-22-2022 06:39 AM
#30526
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These guys talk about her behavior as being consistent with honesty. I'd take it with a grain of salt because body language stuff is more art than science, but a lot of what they say rings true. | |
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10-22-2022 07:39 AM
#30527
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10-22-2022 07:47 AM
#30528
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If it was the hand in isolation, I wouldn't be so sure. But the vibrating chair, and the dude stealing her chips, for this to not be cheating we're looking at some serious coincidences here. | |
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10-22-2022 07:53 AM
#30529
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The only speculation I'm presenting as based in fact is the guy being upset about Robin handing the money back. I've seen no video to support this, just hearsay. But his desk hidden behind the camera, him stealing and getting fired, the social media apology and ass kissing, that's factual. | |
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10-22-2022 09:54 AM
#30530
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10-22-2022 01:17 PM
#30531
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10-22-2022 01:23 PM
#30532
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10-22-2022 01:26 PM
#30533
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He may have thought he'd get away with stealing chips because he thought nobody would notice except for her, and she wouldn't alert anyone. He might have thought the cctv footage would not be viewed. | |
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10-22-2022 01:31 PM
#30534
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As for the body language "experts", they should try playing poker instead if they're really experts. | |
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10-22-2022 01:35 PM
#30535
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I am surprised in the only one who thinks she's obviously cheating. Provably cheating? Probably not. But it seems highly likely that she's in cahoots with the chips stealer to me. | |
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10-22-2022 08:55 PM
#30536
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10-23-2022 03:02 AM
#30537
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lol avoiding interacting on contract phones is being "incredibly careful at covering your tracks". | |
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10-23-2022 03:19 AM
#30538
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10-23-2022 09:03 AM
#30539
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My point is that even a regular small time criminal thinks about phone records. | |
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10-23-2022 09:15 AM
#30540
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Let's look at this another way. | |
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10-23-2022 09:17 AM
#30541
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I think cheating is a huge problem in poker. Postle and Robin are the idiots who don't do it properly, but my concern is it's the tip of the iceberg. How many people are cheating properly so they don't raise suspicion? | |
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10-23-2022 10:43 AM
#30542
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On the one hand, you're saying he's sharp enough to move a filing cabinet to hide himself from the cameras, but that on the other hand he's dumb enough to steal chips in a room full of cameras. Does not compute. | |
Last edited by Poopadoop; 10-23-2022 at 10:45 AM.
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10-23-2022 12:07 PM
#30543
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10-23-2022 12:10 PM
#30544
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10-23-2022 12:15 PM
#30545
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Presumably you're not going to use an actual phone for this. It's too obvious, it's the first thing that will be checked if there's a situation. I'd say it's highly likely her phone was checked, voluntarily. | |
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10-23-2022 02:43 PM
#30546
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10-23-2022 04:14 PM
#30547
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Alright, let's analyse the footage of her chair vibrating to see if it's too regular for a human. | |
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10-23-2022 06:15 PM
#30548
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10-24-2022 01:32 PM
#30549
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The hand makes sense in a donkey brain kind of way. It's bvb, both of their ranges are hot garbage. Flop call is fine. Turn looks like a sizing mistake to me. His range is so heavily weighted to draws and the speed of his bets is a big tell on top of that. Bet/raising this fast is very often a telltale sign of someone having a real easy decision, and shoving it in with a draw is a real easy decision. idk the stacks, but she should have probably folded or overbet/shoved the turn. I think she minraises ip which is terrible without a plan. Horrendous if the plan is to bluffcatch with J high. | |
Last edited by oskar; 10-24-2022 at 01:34 PM.
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10-26-2022 04:45 AM
#30550
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The best part is they can't ID him publicly (why?) so there's no way to blacklist him from restaurants. | |
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10-26-2022 08:24 AM
#30551
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10-28-2022 12:55 PM
#30552
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Ong, you're susceptible to conspiracy thinking. | |
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10-28-2022 06:34 PM
#30553
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I read that post in the context of it being a reply to my most recent post itt and thought "what the fuck are you talking about" then realised you're replying to my Robin comments. | |
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10-29-2022 09:37 AM
#30554
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Ignoring everything else: if she's good enough to not play the hand as badly as she did, she should also be good enough not to cheat in the way she did, if she was cheating. Unless there's a clear pattern I don't think you can possibly tell on one hand whether or not someone was cheating. | |
Last edited by oskar; 10-29-2022 at 09:47 AM.
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10-29-2022 09:57 AM
#30555
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Show me any evidence of cheating. Not speculation and hand-waving. | |
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10-29-2022 01:13 PM
#30556
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Mojo you're talking about evidence like it's a court here. I'm not an investigating officer. I'm an observer speculating. A weird vibration is circumstantial evidence of cheating. Speculation, if you like. | |
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10-29-2022 01:15 PM
#30557
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If you feel that someone has cheated, then saying you think they cheated is not being a whining dumbass. So long as you raise your objections in a professional manner, at least. | |
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10-29-2022 01:21 PM
#30558
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This is kinda fun, like a game of werewolf. | |
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10-29-2022 01:25 PM
#30559
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If oskar is a villager boost must be a wolf. | |
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10-29-2022 04:25 PM
#30560
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I can’t say I’ve watched the hand Ong but does the fact it was being filmed live make it more or less likely that she was cheating? | |
10-29-2022 05:56 PM
#30561
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Well I think we all agree Postle cheated, so he proves that people will occasionally be so ballsy as to cheat in front of cameras. | |
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10-30-2022 12:14 AM
#30562
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Garrett is, in general, a whiney manchild. | |
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10-30-2022 02:25 AM
#30563
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Garrett's opinion is biased and, in any case, irrelevant. So is Doug Polk's. They have the same evidence as the rest of us, but reach different conclusions. You don't need to be an expert in GTO to see it was an odd way to play her hand. | |
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10-30-2022 05:03 AM
#30564
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The evidence that Postle cheated is statistical and circumstantial. Same as what I'm arguing with Robin. The difference is that the probability that Postle cheated is an infinitesimal under 100%. The circumstantial evidence is that he kept looking at his phone, and that he could only win like this at one card room. | |
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10-30-2022 07:40 AM
#30565
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There's a big difference between someone on an obscure poker community forum saying he thinks she cheated, and a world-known poker figure(s) saying it. | |
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10-30-2022 07:49 AM
#30566
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Garrett and Polk are perfect illustrations of confirmation bias. They can't conceive of playing a hand that way and because it blows up their GTO solvers, so they assume she cheated. Then they go fishing around for more evidence to support their assumption. The vibrating chair is a perfect example of reading things into something that isn't there. | |
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10-30-2022 10:47 AM
#30567
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It looks bad, for sure, but ... running at an 0.1% probable winrate over a small sample (and it's about impossible to not have small samples in poker)... that's only 1 in 1000. There are well over 1000 players. So that statistic doesn't seem to say much. We'd expect to see many people with that improbable winrate statistic, given there are many thousands of people in effectively the same situations as Postle. | |
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10-30-2022 11:09 AM
#30568
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10-30-2022 11:12 AM
#30569
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10-30-2022 11:25 AM
#30570
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Hans can prove he's not cheating by beating Stockfish. He only needs to ever do this once. If he does that then ok, we have a next level chess genius on our hands. Nobody on the planet can beat full-power Stockfish. The only computer than can beat Stockfish is Alpha Zero, and that's a supercomputer that is doing important AI work. You don't have that on your phone. | |
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10-30-2022 11:30 AM
#30571
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10-30-2022 11:37 AM
#30572
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10-30-2022 11:46 AM
#30573
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She had J3 on the hand before this. It's not impossible she was just confused. | |
Last edited by Poopadoop; 10-30-2022 at 11:52 AM.
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10-30-2022 11:58 AM
#30574
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10-30-2022 12:00 PM
#30575
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He didn't stop at the vibrating chair. He went to the card room and did actual investigation, he went into the secure room and the first thing he noticed was a desk hidden from the view of everyone else, with a filing cabinet blocking the camera. This desk had line of sight to the table. When he asked whose desk it was, he was told it belonged to the guy who stole chips off Robin. | |
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10-30-2022 12:11 PM
#30576
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So let me get this straight: The chip stealer guy is sneaking looks at Garrett's hole cards from what, 20 feet away? Is he using binoculars or does he just have superman vision? And while he's going this, Garrett never notices out of the corner of his eye that this guy is watching him with binoculars? | |
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10-30-2022 12:12 PM
#30577
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Ok just watching this hand again. | |
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10-30-2022 12:16 PM
#30578
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10-30-2022 12:21 PM
#30579
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Look, if Robin isn't putting a vibrator up her ass and getting secret info, someone else is. It's technically possible. I've seen live stream cam porn. Believe me, remotely controlled vibrators exist that could do the job. And would make a chair vibrate. If she's cheating this way, fair play to her for hiding her pleasure. | |
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10-30-2022 12:24 PM
#30580
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10-30-2022 12:25 PM
#30581
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10-30-2022 12:27 PM
#30582
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I can't find an unedited stream of the full house vs flush draw hand. She calls dead on the turn but if she has no info at this stage it's nothing of note. And tank folding the river isn't really noteworthy, it's just if Garrett looks at his hand, and then her chair vibrates shortly after (with enough reasonable time for chip stealer to interpret and send the information) then that's supporting evidence that she is cheating, although no it still doesn't prove anything. | |
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10-30-2022 12:28 PM
#30583
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It had happened. Polk turned up later after the accusations had blown up and after the dude got fired for stealing chips. | |
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10-30-2022 12:31 PM
#30584
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His first upload - | |
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10-30-2022 12:32 PM
#30585
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His camera can see through bodies too? | |
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10-30-2022 12:34 PM
#30586
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10-30-2022 12:39 PM
#30587
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I mean no-one cares what Polk thinks, let's be honest. He's a goofball wearing a tanktop that happens to be extremely good at poker. And like GA, he ran the hand through his GTO solver and it said "fail." And from that, he went looking for evidence that she cheated, valid or otherwise. | |
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10-30-2022 12:53 PM
#30588
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10-30-2022 01:11 PM
#30589
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Yep, they were planning on how to cheat and Robbi said "hey I've got this massive vibrator that I stick up my ass sometimes, then my husband turns it up to 11 with his phone and I orgasm. let's use that." And Chip Stealer said "yeah, sounds great, try not to make a face while you're coming though, ok?" | |
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10-30-2022 01:15 PM
#30590
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So here's what GA posted on 2p2 the other day, as his collection of "evidence." | |
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10-30-2022 01:18 PM
#30591
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I don't think I've seen Garret directly accuse her of cheating. I just watched the hand and Polk's uploads. Can't remember what Garrett tweeted afterwards. But he definitely was thinking it at the table. It wasn't just the hand, it was her complete inability to explain herself. When he asked why she called the turn with jack high, she replied "because you don't have shit". Her talk makes absolutely no sense. | |
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10-30-2022 01:18 PM
#30592
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10-30-2022 01:19 PM
#30593
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Ok that's a direct accusation. I'm reading it. Gimme ten. | |
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10-30-2022 01:20 PM
#30594
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10-30-2022 01:23 PM
#30595
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He accused her indirectly at the table, and accused her directly the day after the hand took place using the vibrator theory. | |
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10-30-2022 01:23 PM
#30596
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Fuck me that report is huge. Fuck that, I'm not on jury duty. | |
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10-30-2022 01:25 PM
#30597
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Prove that she can remain otherwise still and maintain a poker face while the vibator is making her and the furniture shake. | |
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10-30-2022 01:27 PM
#30598
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His table talk afterwards, I wouldn't call that "indirectly accusing her of cheating". He was trying to make sense of what happened. It's clear he feels something is wrong, but his approach seems to me like someone who is trying to make sense of what happened. | |
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10-30-2022 01:37 PM
#30599
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10-30-2022 01:38 PM
#30600
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It's about as close to an accusation as you can get without saying it outright. | |
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