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 Originally Posted by TheSpoonald
What do you want from me?
Sorry. I thought you were someone else. Now I'm more certain that you have never spent more than lip service to support a left-wing issue, while you frequently spend days dropping walls of text in support of a right-wing issue.
I don't want anything but to understand who you are. Again. Sorry if me saying you're on the political right doesn't match your own vision of yourself.
 Originally Posted by TheSpoonald
No one else here wants to talk about anything except ORANGE MAN BAD. Feel free to start a discussion on a left wing issue if you're curious about my position.
Well... nothing get them worked up like having someone who has no data (reality) to back up what they're talking about, and you do that a lot. Add on top that your positions are not in line with theirs and everything gets exciting. I can't even remotely disagree with that much.
Oskar has repeatedly posted that Trump is not smart enough to understand grammar or string together a coherent sentence. That's probably the extent of the "orange man bad" talk here. Oskar's other opinions on political issues, Trump or otherwise, don't usually boil down to that.
 Originally Posted by TheSpoonald
Funny, now that illegal immigration is 2x the problem you thought it was, you don't seem any more concerned about it.
2x the people causing the same impact doesn't increase the problem, it shows that per capita, the problem is 1/2 what we thought it was.
In the post you linked with the 25M number, they made that clear. Do you want me to quote it for you, rather than summarize?
If you're using the data to support the 25M number, then you can't throw out the conclusions of the researchers whom collected and analyzed that data.
Either you show their methods are faulty, their conclusions false, or you accept their results.
If you accept 25M, then you have to accept, "same number of illegal aliens apprehended for crimes committed over the past XXX years we've been collecting data, but from a population that is 2x what our previous, bad estimates have guessed."
I wasn't concerned about it before. I'm not concerned about it now. It's never been a part of my line of questioning to assert an opinion on the matter. It's been a part of your line of reasoning vis-a-vis why you think a wall is good for America.
 Originally Posted by TheSpoonald
Actually, walls work.
Walls work. and no one is advocating for an unmanned wall.
"Shut up," he opined.
Forgot where you started with that goal post again, didn't you?
It was your assertions that an unmanned wall is effective at least as a speed bump and your use of the word "permanent" that was under question.
Since you've cleared up that by permanent you meant something like, "more resilient to re-boot if it ever gets cancelled and then reinstated," I'm fine with that.
At least admit that you wouldn't be "stopped" by a wall if you were already prepared to commit the crime of crossing it and there wasn't any personnel working that wall to swoop in and catch you. Sure... it will slow you down. The longer the manpower is gone, though, the less it slows anyone down.
Cayotes are unscrupulous assholes who can make a lot of money by assisting people in this crime. That means there are going to be professional wall-get-acrossers for hire before the entire wall is even finished being built, let alone the inevitable de-funding.
Nothing lasts forever. (My professional opinion with caveats involving event horizons and time dilation.)
 Originally Posted by TheSpoonald
First of all, we don't *know* that. And any arguments that even suggest that have to ignore the crime of illegally crossing the border before it even starts with math. So it's highly flawed. highly. Also, every stat I've ever seen shows the crime rate among illegal aliens in terms of crimes per 100K people. Or sort of per capita. So this new information you found doesn't affect the crime rate at all. It just means that the volume of crimes is 2x what you thought. Sleep tight.
We do know exactly how many arrests of illegal immigrants have been made, and for what crimes. What we didn't know what how many illegals there were total. So we were using a false estimate of 11.3 for the denominator in that equation. We have hard data on the number of arrests, so the numerator is static. The rate goes down if the numerator is static and the denominator increases.
Those per capita claims were based on the faulty estimate of 11.3M undocumented illegals. It's right there in the Yale link you posted.
Now, we could certainly postulate that if the number went from 25M (or whatever is current) to 50M (or whatever is 2x current), then we'd see a doubling in total crimes, at the same rate per capita. That is, you see, an entirely different topic, though.
Projecting an estimate about the future is not the same as incorporating new data into old data.
 Originally Posted by TheSpoonald
Again, you have to understand what "per capita" means. If 12 million people took X million jobs. Then 24 million people take 2x million jobs. The problem is twice as worse as you thought it was, not half. Learn math please.
The irony is that you're an accountant, right?
We don't have as good stats on jobs taken as we do arrests, but we do have some indication of the pressure those "taken" jobs has had on the economy and workforce. Again, that data hasn't changed, the number of people causing that data has changed.
 Originally Posted by TheSpoonald
Walls work.
Walls work
"Shut up," he opined.
If you're not prepared to discredit the entirety of the Yale study and its number of 25M, then you can't discredit the researchers other conclusions without getting into the nitty gritty about where exactly did they cross the line.
Else you're just being intellectually vapid, and you don't want that, do you?
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