Trump Is Reality TV, Mueller Is The Wire

[BananaStand]

You do realize that while he may not view this as an optimal outcome, he may very well not view it as an unfavorable one?

That was kind of my point. I think there is a chance (I would guess it's probably about 35%) that Mueller has nothing on Russia, nothing on obstruction, but still would like to see Trump taken down. So he might have made himself into an overreaching, witch-hunting, nuisance on purpose just to get himself fired.

Then there is a whole new "obstruction of justice" game to be played. Even if that doesn't come to pass, the dems will spin the Mueller firing into some monumentally bad optics for Trump.

The longer this investigation continues without any definitive findings on the central matter of Russia, the more I'm inclined to believe that Mueller has some kind of alt-purpose. He's run a real tight ship, with not many leaks. When Mueller's made moves, they've always been a surprise. That makes my imagination start to conjure up images of a cult-like team where the members are convinced of some higher historical and revolutionary purpose.

Some day, someone on the team (but not Mueller) will write a book about what they did. Should be a fascinating read.

[boost]

That was kind of my point. I think there is a chance (I would guess it's probably about 35%) that Mueller has nothing on Russia, nothing on obstruction, but still would like to see Trump taken down. So he might have made himself into an overreaching, witch-hunting, nuisance on purpose just to get himself fired.

Then there is a whole new "obstruction of justice" game to be played. Even if that doesn't come to pass, the dems will spin the Mueller firing into some monumentally bad optics for Trump.

The longer this investigation continues without any definitive findings on the central matter of Russia, the more I'm inclined to believe that Mueller has some kind of alt-purpose. He's run a real tight ship, with not many leaks. When Mueller's made moves, they've always been a surprise. That makes my imagination start to conjure up images of a cult-like team where the members are convinced of some higher historical and revolutionary purpose.

Some day, someone on the team (but not Mueller) will write a book about what they did. Should be a fascinating read.

I think your imagination can tend to get away from you, but nonetheless, yeah-- this will be some interesting history to look back on.

My take is that Mueller entered into his role as special prosecutor in a tough spot, but by running a tight ship and strategically revealing cards in his hand, he's been able to build enough credibility (with a significant enough portion of the public and of congress) that his initial weakness, Trump's technical ability to indirectly fire him, is now a strength. My gut feeling is that he has something significant, but he knows he needs it to be air tight because one of the defendants is a sitting US President. To get it to be air tight, you've got to flip people, and to get pressure on them you have to have information that they don't so as to put them in a prisoner's dilemma.

You could be right that either he and his team are "hardened democrats" (but, um, probably not) or that they simply are in it for the win, but my point is that to run this sort of investigation, all the things you find suspicious are actually hallmarks of a well run operation that is trying to find the truth but also cognisant that a wrong step could end the quest for the truth prematurely.

[BananaStand]

My take is that Mueller entered into his role as special prosecutor in a tough spot

Why is that spot so tough? If he's an objective lawman interested in justice, then it really doesn't matter who he's investigating. Also, unlike the members of the House and Senate intelligence committees....Mueller doesn't have to answer to a voting constituency.

but by running a tight ship and strategically revealing cards in his hand, he's been able to build enough credibility (with a significant enough portion of the public and of congress) that his initial weakness, Trump's technical ability to indirectly fire him, is now a strength.

Disagree. By being secretive, with the only leaking details seeming to be far outside of his original directive, I think he has less credibility than ever. Firing Mueller would certainly create blowback for Trump. But the amount of potential blowback is probably at it's lowest point ever.

My gut feeling is that he has something significant, but he knows he needs it to be air tight because one of the defendants is a sitting US President.

Disagree again. If the democrats gained congressional power tomorrow, the very first thing they would do is move to impeach just based on what information is currently public. They won't even need Mueller.

To get it to be air tight, you've got to flip people, and to get pressure on them you have to have information that they don't so as to put them in a prisoner's dilemma.

Manafort has not flipped. What does that tell you?

You could be right that either he and his team are "hardened democrats"

Is that what I said? I can recall pointing out the known democratic affiliations prominent on Mueller's team, but that was several hundred posts ago.

all the things you find suspicious are actually hallmarks of a well run operation that is trying to find the truth

I find the indictment of Michael Flynn to be quite dubious. I find the case against Popadopoulous to be flimsy. I find Mueller's inquiry into the Stormy Daniels situation to be an over-reach. I find his raid on Cohen's office to be borderline criminal. I find his interest into the Access Hollywood tape to be petty.

How exactly can you spin these things into "hallmarks of a well run operation"

but also cognisant that a wrong step could end the quest for the truth prematurely.

So then, if Mueller is actually trying to get fired, as we both have speculated, then that means he must have given up on the quest for truth, and now he's just trying to force an outcome. So I'll ask again....how does that conjure up sentiments of "credibility" and "well run operation" for you?

[boost]

Why is that spot so tough? If he's an objective lawman interested in justice, then it really doesn't matter who he's investigating. Also, unlike the members of the House and Senate intelligence committees....Mueller doesn't have to answer to a voting constituency.

At the outset Mueller needed to walk a fine line between keeping the investigation open long enough to due his duty as an investigator and actually do his duty as an investigator. Any wrong step and if there is something to be uncovered, he would have squandered the only shot anyone was likely to have.

Disagree. By being secretive, with the only leaking details seeming to be far outside of his original directive, I think he has less credibility than ever. Firing Mueller would certainly create blowback for Trump. But the amount of potential blowback is probably at it's lowest point ever.

Right, I think I was unclear-- being secretive doesn't help his credibility, being secret was necessary for him to get far enough so that he could slowly build credibility. There are now several key figures cooperating with the investigation. It's much harder to convince onlookers that this is all a sack of nothing burgers. Why were they cut deals, in what way are they cooperating?

Whatever you think about the developments in the investigation, Mueller is part of the picture now. It may have been risky to fire him right off the bat, but its far riskier now because a significant portion of the population is expecting results and will feel that they were robbed of a forthcoming revelation.

Disagree again. If the democrats gained congressional power tomorrow, the very first thing they would do is move to impeach just based on what information is currently public. They won't even need Mueller.

These are separate issues. Whether or not it's politically prudent, congress has a lot of leeway regarding the reason they impeach and convict a president. Mueller's job is to find the truth, and if a crime has been committed he needs to present the evidence in a sufficiently convincing way. This applies to whether he indicts (unlikely) or submits a report that ultimately makes its way to a democrat controlled or republican controlled congress. If there's a crime and his case is weaksauce, the likelihood of conviction drops dramatically, meaning the likelihood of him failing to see to it that justice is served increases.

Manafort has not flipped. What does that tell you?

He's got some gamble in him-- this is readily apparent from his bio.

Is that what I said? I can recall pointing out the known democratic affiliations prominent on Mueller's team, but that was several hundred posts ago.

I apologize, didn't mean to put words in your mouth. Even so, I think way too much is made about political affiliations. People in the DOJ, FBI, etc are not robots. Mueller, Rosenstein, Sessions, the SDNY guy-- pretty much everyone that is in a leadership role in this is a republican, many of them being Trump appointees. It would be inappropriate to exclude democrats from working on the investigation, yet when any semblance of bias has turned up, those investigators were promptly removed from Mueller's team.

I find the indictment of Michael Flynn to be quite dubious. I find the case against Popadopoulous to be flimsy. I find Mueller's inquiry into the Stormy Daniels situation to be an over-reach. I find his raid on Cohen's office to be borderline criminal. I find his interest into the Access Hollywood tape to be petty.

Neither Flynn nor Popadopolous seem to think the cases against them are either dubious or flimsy.

Mueller did not raid Cohen's office. The SDNY did. If lifting the Trump rock reveals all sorts of criminal critters, that's not Mueller's fault. It appears that he and Rosenstein intentionally referred evidence of potential crimes committed by Cohen to the SDNY office so as to avoid over reach.

How exactly can you spin these things into "hallmarks of a well run operation"

I don't think any spin is necessary.

So then, if Mueller is actually trying to get fired, as we both have speculated, then that means he must have given up on the quest for truth,

Nope, not sure how you made that leap.

and now he's just trying to force an outcome. So I'll ask again....how does that conjure up sentiments of "credibility" and "well run operation" for you?

My speculation is that Mueller does not necessarily view being fired, what with the likely actions his firing would trigger, as a negative outcome. That doesn't mean that's where he's steering the ship.

To stick with that analogy-- you're the captain of a ship navigating a narrow channel, on one side are treacherous rocks, the other side has shallow sand banks. Your goal is to make it through the channel, but should you fail that, you'd view beaching the ship as a success as compared to the only alternative, the jagged rocks.

[Poopadoop]

I think your imagination can tend to get away from you, but nonetheless, yeah-- this will be some interesting history to look back on.

My take is that Mueller entered into his role as special prosecutor in a tough spot, but by running a tight ship and strategically revealing cards in his hand, he's been able to build enough credibility (with a significant enough portion of the public and of congress) that his initial weakness, Trump's technical ability to indirectly fire him, is now a strength. My gut feeling is that he has something significant, but he knows he needs it to be air tight because one of the defendants is a sitting US President. To get it to be air tight, you've got to flip people, and to get pressure on them you have to have information that they don't so as to put them in a prisoner's dilemma.

You could be right that either he and his team are "hardened democrats" (but, um, probably not) or that they simply are in it for the win, but my point is that to run this sort of investigation, all the things you find suspicious are actually hallmarks of a well run operation that is trying to find the truth but also cognisant that a wrong step could end the quest for the truth prematurely.

Pretty much.

What the Mueller-as-closet-democrat-trying-to-discredit-Trump-by-dragging-on-the-investigation-with-no-real-evidence types are missing is that this isn't a TV show where everything gets wrapped up in a nice neat package in one hour. It's an actual investigation being conducted by professionals. Maybe having a reality TV president has people confused into expecting everyone to try to play to the cameras, but it's not Mueller's job to try to entertain people.

Mueller should NOT be transparent about what his next moves are because that would (obv.) harm the investigation. You don't tell the guy you're coming for next you're coming for him next so he can burn all the evidence (duh).

Also, there is no time limit (despite what all the Trump supporters want to argue) so he is better off taking his time, doing a good job, crossing the t's and dotting the i's, than just handing out indictments left and right before he's built a proper case and then praying something sticks.