**** Elections thread *****

[BananaStand]

Sounds more like an excuse from someone who knows he's going to get curb-stomped in an election and wants to save himself the embarrassment.

If you're talking about the 2018 midterms, you're wrong

If you're talking about a 2020 re-election, you're extra wrong

[Poopadoop]

If you're talking about the 2018 midterms, you're wrong

If you're talking about a 2020 re-election, you're extra wrong

Well you got me there. Airtight reasoning again.

[BananaStand]

Well you got me there. Airtight reasoning again.

Take a look at the poll numbers that you love to jerk off to.

Specifically, look at polls asking people whether they would vote for a generic republican or a generic democrat in the midterms. Then look at those polls over time, and tell me if Republicans should be worried?

Do you agree that if Republicans turn out, they win? If not, you're insane.

I wonder if there are any legislative issues dominating the headlines that might galvanize republican voters....

[Poopadoop]

Please, post some links to these sources your referencing. I'd love to see how you get from 42% to landsliding the midterms.

[BananaStand]

Please, post some links to these sources your referencing. I'd love to see how you get from 42% to landsliding the midterms.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-6185.html

At New Years, Dems were ahead by 12.9. In less than three months since then, the lead has been cut by more than half to 5.8

For whom is that good news?

Furthermore, if you think Democrats making gun control a top plank in their platform isn't going to drive Republican turnout, then I'm guessing you've accidentally ingested some LSD.

[Poopadoop]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-6185.html

At New Years, Dems were ahead by 12.9. In less than three months since then, the lead has been cut by more than half to 5.8

For whom is that good news?

Furthermore, if you think Democrats making gun control a top plank in their platform isn't going to drive Republican turnout, then I'm guessing you've accidentally ingested some LSD.

Haha, so you're inferring a trend from those values and assuming it's going to continue right through to November. Well sure, Nostradamus, that's what always happens when the apparent trend is going in the direction you want it to.

Here's some reality for you: you can find a trend in any direction when you measure a variable such as this over time. From July to Dec. '17 the Dem lead went from +7 to +13. How come it's not at +20 now, if the direction of a trend is such a powerful predictor?

"Trends" you find in data like these mean fuck all. Scoring the last field goal in a game doesn't mean you're more likely to win if you're still behind by a touchdown.

[BananaStand]

Haha, so you're inferring a trend from those values and assuming it's going to continue right through to November.

I realize that your caveman cognition can't handle much more than "Ooga booga - line go up - happy time", but I assure you I'm putting a little more thought into it than you're alleging.

I can see that the gap was wide when Republicans failed to reform healthcare, and that it narrowed after legislative victories on tax reform. So I am inferring that the trend is a result of a successfully implemented legislative agenda. I am predicting that success will continue, or at the very least, not reverse into abject failure within the next 7 months. And therefore I am concluding that these poll results should be interpreted as encouraging news by republicans.