**** Elections thread *****

[wufwugy]

I'm holding the simplest, one variable explanation as my model.

In a way I'm using a simple, one variable explanation as my model too (regarding PA, the only one I've opined on).

That model is that the D ran as an (effective) R (he really did, pro-gun, anti-abortion, etc.), so change in vote from R to D in this instance doesn't tell us much about what would happen in a hypothetical future election when the D runs as an effective D.

[Poopadoop]

In a way I'm using a simple, one variable explanation as my model too (regarding PA, the only one I've opined on).

That model is that the D ran as an (effective) R (he really did, pro-gun, anti-abortion, etc.), so change in vote from R to D in this instance doesn't tell us much about what would happen in a hypothetical future election when the D runs as an effective D.

Then our models are explaining different levels of things.