*** The Official MAGAposting thread ***

[wufwugy]

Dear criminals,

[MadMojoMonkey]

@wuf: It's antithetical to the sign-owner's point until and unless the neighbor gets robbed, right?

[Poopadoop]

In order for this to be true, the potential shooter would need to be indifferent between the choice of school or someplace else. They aren't, because according to their preferences, shooting up schools gives them more net benefit than the next best option.

They don't have to be indifferent, they just have to be willing to consider more than one option.

[MadMojoMonkey]

This is conflating two different types of rationality. The mass murderer has preferences and knows his preferences; therefore economic rationality applies.

So this:
"I'm really excited about indiscriminately killing a bunch of people, but damn... there are guns at the school... fuck me, I'll do something else besides murder."
sounds to you like a probable thought process in a would-be mass murderer?

I assert that someone whom is criminally insane and committed to mass murder isn't going to be so easily deterred from their ambition.

[Poopadoop]

Ya I'm not buying this 'the only way they're going to be a mass murderer is if they can do it at a school' theory.

[wufwugy]

They don't have to be indifferent, they just have to be willing to consider more than one option.

If there is no change in quantity or intensity of shootings (which is what you implied), then it means they are probably indifferent. So far the data strongly suggests they are not indifferent.

Ya I'm not buying this 'the only way they're going to be a mass murderer is if they can do it at a school' theory.

That would be a different theory than one I have expressed.

[wufwugy]

So this:
"I'm really excited about indiscriminately killing a bunch of people, but damn... there are guns at the school... fuck me, I'll do something else besides murder."
sounds to you like a probable thought process in a would-be mass murderer?

I assert that someone whom is criminally insane and committed to mass murder isn't going to be so easily deterred from their ambition.

It depends on the elasticity of their demand to murder and how much the cost changes. With a cost increase of committing a school shooting for would-be shooters, there would be a marginal reduction of the quantity demanded of school shootings by would-be shooters. The elasticity of their demand curve and the degree of cost increase would determine how big that marginal change is.

[wufwugy]

@wuf: It's antithetical to the sign-owner's point until and unless the neighbor gets robbed, right?

I'm not sure. I think it constructs a hypothetical to examine the logic of robbery incentives and disincentives.

[wufwugy]

[wufwugy]

this more of a shitpost but i fucking lold

[wufwugy]

more lols

[MadMojoMonkey]

Hooded man eating a cinnamon roll gets shot by police in tragic mix-up.

[boost]

I'm actually curious to see something like a wargaming of the US government vs its small arms armed civilians.

I'm truly agnostic on this issue, and soundbites and memes aren't doing much either way.

[boost]

Also, it's an interesting prospect to view Trump turning on the NRA as analogous to Hitler's purge of the brown shirts.

**while I'm no fan of Trump, I mean for this analogy to be construed in the most narrow sense. Hitler's rise to power on the backs of the SA and then their subsequent purging is probably the most famous instance of this maneuver-- I'M NOT CALLING TRUMP HITLER! GOODWIN CAN SUCK MY COCK.

[wufwugy]

When did he turn on the NRA?

[boost]

When did he turn on the NRA?

Yeah, that was a bit presumptive-- he's made noises that are less than staunchly in line with NRA positions since Florida. Other Republicans have done the same. So my "interesting prospect" is a hypothetical that has far more (if still a very slim chance) of happening than it did pre-Florida.

[wufwugy]

Yeah, that was a bit presumptive-- he's made noises that are less than staunchly in line with NRA positions since Florida. Other Republicans have done the same. So my "interesting prospect" is a hypothetical that has far more (if still a very slim chance) of happening than it did pre-Florida.

I think it will be like it has been with the other stuff he's dealt with so far. That is that he'll stake out the most advantageous position, the media will say he's abandoning his base, some members of his base will believe it on their own, most won't, then after it's all said and done he'll not have given an inch.

I was wrong about him before, where I thought he was going in the wrong direction and that he was gonna end up giving an inch. But each time it doesn't turn out like that as far as I can tell.

[wufwugy]

[wufwugy]

Trump's reframing to arming teachers is the typical type of persuasion he uses. The kind where he gets you to frame something in terms that will be affirmed by future events.

A majority of the country doesn't want teachers armed now, but the frame is planted. When another shooting happens where an armed teacher could have stopped it, many people will think exactly that now. Then voila arming teachers will get public support.

[BananaStand]

I really think the 'arm teachers' argument is hollow and phony. They just need some kind of argument that proliferates guns.

If the dems say "ban guns", and the repubs say "mental health and bullet proof doors", then it's really easy to just say "let's do both". So I think there is a better than average chance that the "arm teachers" movement is just a red herring to facilitate a negotiated middle ground settlement of "mental health and bullet proof doors"

[wufwugy]

Allowing people to carry for protection has long been a mainstay among those who have some understanding of how these things work.

[BananaStand]

Is anyone else having thoughts of Dana Loesch naked with an AR-15?

[OngBonga]

I am now.

Who's Dana Loesch?

[OngBonga]

Yes.

[wufwugy]

Wow Obamacare might be truly going away in entirety. The repeal of the individual mandate in the tax bill has led 20 states challenging the constitutionality of the law. Why could this work? Because it was upheld in SCOTUS based on the individual mandate.

Big if true.

[BananaStand]

Wow Obamacare might be truly going away in entirety. The repeal of the individual mandate in the tax bill has led 20 states challenging the constitutionality of the law. Why could this work? Because it was upheld in SCOTUS based on the individual mandate.

Big if true.

That's not how I remember it. Obamacare itself wasn't upheld by SCOTUS. Having the government create online exchanges and subsidies for health insurance is absolutely constitutional. That's not why it was challenged. It was the individual mandate, specifically, that was challenged in SCOTUS. Had the court knocked it down, the rest of Obamacare could have gone forward. It would have just been insolvent.

The complaint regarding Obamacare was that it was a scheme of taxation and wealth redistribution. Even democrats agreed that would be wrong. So they confirmation biased themselves into supporting the plan under the insane premise that "it's not a tax, it's just the government requiring you to pay money". That was challenged by republicans as being totally bat-shit crazy. And in defense, the liberals cited "the commerce clause" of the constitution, which was also, a little bit bat-shit crazy.

So republicans challenged that in court. They claimed that the commerce clause does not allow congress to force people to purchase something they don't want. The supreme court agreed that citing the commerce clause was totally bat-shit crazy.

But then....

Then the court said, "Yeah, but congress can levy taxes, and that's what this is"

[wufwugy]

[BananaStand]

That would have been 100x better if it came from the real Sean Spicer

[wufwugy]

I feel bad for having only reluctantly predicted a year ago that Trump will solve the North Korea problem. It became clear a while ago but is extra super clear now that the solving is underway and probably not far off to finality.

[BananaStand]

I feel bad for having only reluctantly predicted a year ago that Trump will solve the North Korea problem. It became clear a while ago but is extra super clear now that the solving is underway and probably not far off to finality.

past administrations have clearly espoused a policy of "containment", which is a fancy word for 'kick the can down the road'. Whenever you have that kind of situation, you assume that there will be an inevitable point where the can can't be kicked any further. I wouldn't say it was a hugely bold prediction to guess that point would happen right around now.

I heard recently that NoKo will be completely out of cash, like literally dead broke, by October of this year. They're kinda forced to the table, whether they like it or not. This also means that America essentially holds all the cards. So I'm not gonna give Trump a whole lot of credit for being a great diplomat here.

The real wildcard that Trump has to worry about, is Kim. He's clearly a maniac.

You know, people think that WW2 was fought to save the Jews from extermination. That's really not the case. It wasn't even widely known that Hitler was killing Jews until the war was practically over. Hitler accelerated the exterminations when it became clear that he was losing the war. He diverted more resources to destruction, rather than resupply his army and make strategic decisions toward a goal of victory. That's fucked up.

If Kim is from the same maniacal mold, then any diplomacy is really moot. He obviously doesn't care about his own people. He obviously doesn't care about having productive relationships with the rest of the world. He could just be building the biggest arsenal he can for the simple purpose of mayhem. In which case the joke is on Trump. Every second spent attempting diplomacy is just allowing Kim to gear up for greater mayhem.

[OngBonga]

I don't think comparisons between Kim and Hitler are fair. Kim is indeed a nutcase, but he's not invading other nations and, as far as I'm aware, is not killing millions of anyone, except possibly as a result of bad governance (ie starvation).

The idea he doesn't care about his people can be disputed, too, although it's shaky ground. One could argue that his reluctance to accept globalisation is basically an effort to protect his people from the sins of capitalism, however misguided that might be.

Do I believe this? No. But it's possible. We can only know what's going on there thanks to our media, who I trust about as much as I trust Kim himself.

[BananaStand]

I don't think comparisons between Kim and Hitler are fair. Kim is indeed a nutcase, but he's not invading other nations and, as far as I'm aware,

The comparison is fair if you are open to the idea that Hitler's motivation wasn't some kind of nationalist paradise. Maybe he was just a hateful maniac that wanted to make his mark on the world by way of the extermination of an entire race of people, along with the deaths of some 120,000,000 individuals, and by leaving Europe in complete ruin.

Perhaps Kim wants to make his mark on the world by going out in an epic blaze of glory. And perhaps that won't be initiated until he truly has no more resources. And in the meantime, he will just keep accumulating weaponry to enhance the mayhem that's unleashed when he's finally out of options.

If that's the case, then diplomacy will just make things worse.

[OngBonga]

Thankfully I'm not as pessimistic as you. I'll hope for the best and if I get proven wrong, well then I'll agree he's the next Hitler.

Even if he doesn't give up his nukes, I don't expect him to start any wars. Too much to lose. He has it so easy, he doesn't have to win elections. Job for life. Why risk it?

[BananaStand]

Even if he doesn't give up his nukes, I don't expect him to start any wars. Too much to lose. He has it so easy, he doesn't have to win elections. Job for life. Why risk it?

Wrong...he has nothing to lose. That's why he's so dangerous.

[OngBonga]

He has a lavish lifestyle to lose. If he has nothing to lose, what's he doing now? Just having a laugh before killing himself?

He's either suicidal, or he's not. If not, he has a lot to lose.

[BananaStand]

He has a lavish lifestyle to lose. If he has nothing to lose, what's he doing now? Just having a laugh before killing himself?

It's not hard to have a lavish lifestyle AND maintain sensible diplomatic relations with the rest of the world. There's more going on here.

There are only a handful of ways this can play out.

1) The world sanctions them to starvation, at which time desperation drives NoKo to unleash whatever military might it has (currently the 4th largest in the world) to take resources by force.
2) NoKo advances its nuclear program far enough to credibly threaten NATO allies. This would prevent the world from enacting #1 and enable Kim to remain in power indefinitely.
3) Kim embraces democracy, and Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize.

The first two are completely unacceptable, and the third is a fantasy.

[wufwugy]

I heard recently that NoKo will be completely out of cash, like literally dead broke, by October of this year. They're kinda forced to the table, whether they like it or not. This also means that America essentially holds all the cards. So I'm not gonna give Trump a whole lot of credit for being a great diplomat here.

It's all Trump. And his administration. Trust me, I've been following this very closely. If this was any of the last three administrations, China would still be playing defense for NK, NK would still be getting lots of imports, and the Kim regime would be getting stronger.

Trump changed everything. His strategy and tactics have been fucking amazing to watch.

[wufwugy]

What he did to China. Just some spectacular stuff. It's not a coincidence that every other administration has been amateur compared to the guy who wrote the book on how to win negotiations.

[wufwugy]

Keep in mind the importance of holding a view of reality that is able to predict.

It's gonna be obvious soon (ish) that Kim is not a wildcard and never was.

[oskar]

Trump's reframing to arming teachers is the typical type of persuasion he uses. The kind where he gets you to frame something in terms that will be affirmed by future events.

A majority of the country doesn't want teachers armed now, but the frame is planted. When another shooting happens where an armed teacher could have stopped it, many people will think exactly that now. Then voila arming teachers will get public support.

Alternatively: this is something tards have been suggesting since the 90's and Trump is another tard echoing it. Not everything that sounds dumb is a sign of genius.

[Poopadoop]

Alternatively: this is something tards have been suggesting since the 90's and Trump is another tard echoing it. Not everything that sounds dumb is a sign of genius.

You obv. aren't spending enough time on r/thedonald Oskar. If you did, you'd know that everything Trump does is genius, and the dumber it appears, the smarter it actually is.

[wufwugy]

Sounds like you guys haven't thought this one through.

[Poopadoop]

No it's more like we're not buying your argument because it's based on the same old premise that we don't believe: Trump is a genius and most people are missing that because they're not on his level of genius.

[wufwugy]

You've attributed to me things I did not say and do not believe.

[Poopadoop]

But you act as though you do believe them.

You're often seen talking about how great Trump is doing at X, Y or Z when other people think he's being a tard. Guns, N. Korea, having a revolving door WH staff, etc.

[OngBonga]

I hope he does solve the NK issue, not just because of the obvious, but because he'll probably get a Nobel Prize for it and send the left into utter meltdown.

[Poopadoop]

I hope he does solve the NK issue, not just because of the obvious, but because he'll probably get a Nobel Prize for it and send the left into utter meltdown.

Why? The left doesn't consider him a warmonger, they consider him an idiot. So they would just consider this as him getting lucky.

[Poopadoop]

Also, have been hearing about the history of NK and these negotiations, and basically they are making the same promise now they've periodically made and then broken for 20 years to get sanctions lifted. How getting them to make the same promise again would 'solve' the problem and be worth of a NPP is not obvious to me.

[OngBonga]

Why? The left doesn't consider him a warmonger, they consider him an idiot. So they would just consider this as him getting lucky.

Well if an idiot can solve the biggest problem the world currently faces, that doesn't say much for his predecessors.

And I'd rather POTUS be an idiot than a warmonger, which is why I don't give a fuck how dumb he sounds. The alternative didn't sound so much like an idiot, but I feared for global security with her in charge. Of course I expected her to win.

[OngBonga]

Also, have been hearing about the history of NK and these negotiations, and basically they are making the same promise now they've periodically made and then broken for 20 years to get sanctions lifted. How getting them to make the same promise again would 'solve' the problem and be worth of a NPP is not obvious to me.

Maybe. You're right, we've heard this all before. But maybe this time is different. We'll see in due course.

[wufwugy]

I hope he does solve the NK issue, not just because of the obvious, but because he'll probably get a Nobel Prize for it and send the left into utter meltdown.

I'd guess that he would not accept it.

And for good reason. Giving legitimacy to non-risk-takers who don't experience the downsides to the beliefs and actions they introduce to others is a big reason we have problems in the first place. Leave the Nobel Peace Prize to remain empty and worthless.

[wufwugy]

Maybe. You're right, we've heard this all before. But maybe this time is different. We'll see in due course.

It looks like it's the same this time on the surface. However, below the surface, the details are remarkably different.

[OngBonga]

Trump might well be lucky in that Kim is simply forced to the negotiating table now, during Trump's term, and it has nothing to do with Trump's strategy. But I don't agree it looks the same on the surface... I mean I can't remember world leaders outright insulting him, and using the same kind of rhetoric like "raining fire" or whatever language has been used. Up until now, it's been standard empty rhetoric, the kind of crap that the UK are currently saying in response to Russia allegedly poisoning their traitors with nerve agents in England. "We will respond with all appropriate means" and the sort of crap that makes you think of scuds and nukes, but in reality means much, much less, like booting out a few agents, or sanctions on a handful of people. What Trump has been saying in regards to Kim is totally different to what we're used to, and it might have worked... maybe Kim is worried that Trump is as crazy as he is, but obviously much much more powerful.

[Poopadoop]

The thing is, Trump can't just unilaterally decide to unleash the nukes, despite what the left-wing fear mongers would have you believe. He has to go through a series of hurdles to go to war. I'm pretty sure Kim knows that too, and doesn't take his bluster seriously.

[wufwugy]

Trump might well be lucky in that Kim is simply forced to the negotiating table now, during Trump's term, and it has nothing to do with Trump's strategy.

Kim's trajectory flipped after Trump began implementing his strategy.

Here are the nutshells of what Trump has done.

He got China to commit to wanting Kim to denuclearize. Whether or not China wanted it, they committed to it publicly from Trump's prodding. Then Trump gave China the first swing and TOLD them he will fix it if they can't. He also showed them how he fixes things (think: MOAB). China tried to fix it but it didn't work. Trump praised China and reiterated how much China wants to fix it and how they can fix it but if they don't Trump will fix it. In the second go around, China tried harder to fix it, but failed again. Trump then gave them a third shot. They publicly failed again. Then Trump publicly said they had their shot and he will step in now. China didn't protest, because China couldn't protest without losing face at this point.

Then sanctions started coming down. Much, much bigger sanctions than normal. The US began getting its way on sanctions finally. Not only was China not blocking them but China was helping US sanctions by this point. Imports to NK have fallen off a fucking cliff in the last few months. Everybody has been cooperating on squeezing NK finally. Big players in China industry that deal with NK have been getting squeezed. Actual products heading to NK illegally have been stopped. NK's oil imports, which China ALWAYS provided no matter what have since been cut down to a tiny fraction of what they were half a year ago.

While all this was going on, Trump has been signalling to Kim that the only way out of this war on the NK economy is denuclearization. At first Kim was fighting against Trump on this, but after Trump solved the China problem and then the world crushed its oil imports, Kim's tune changed. He moved towards trying to get SK on his side, and what has emerged from that are incredible reports from SK that Kim has not refuted that Kim wants to meet with Trump and has denuclearization on the table.

The biggest tell we have right now that this is the real deal is that SK reported that Kim said his father's dying wish was denuclearization, and Kim hasn't refuted it. For the first time in its nuclear history, NK doesn't have China's stalwart backing and doesn't have its needed imports. The chance is super high now that we are dealing with a Kim regime that is looking at taking Trump's out and finally denuclearizing.

[OngBonga]

Good stuff. So if he succeeds, next up on his list should be the denuclearisation of the world, starting with India and Pakistan. Why trust Pakistan and not NK? I'm uncomfortable with both being nuclear armed.

[oskar]

Kim's trajectory flipped after Trump began implementing his strategy.

lul

[wufwugy]

lul

Pay attention.

[oskar]

No, YOU pay attention.

[Poopadoop]

No, YOU pay attention.

BOTH of you pay attention.

[OngBonga]

No, ME pay attention.

[wufwugy]

Denuclearization ahead

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...42173030879233

[wufwugy]

I'm about 50% on the theory that the US military caused the nuclear site cave "earthquake" in NK in October using Rods from God. And that it killed tons of the top level NK officials.

About 85% on the US military blowing up NK missiles using viruses.

[wufwugy]

I'm looking forward to when this happens.

[BananaStand]

I hope he does solve the NK issue, not just because of the obvious, but because he'll probably get a Nobel Prize for it and send the left into utter meltdown.

No chance. If Trump solves NK....Kim will get the peace prize. Guaranteed

[wufwugy]

lol

even though i lol, because that's fucking ridiculous, i think you're might be right.

[wufwugy]

RIP the UK

Make Uncle Nige' King now or get out while you still can.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018...ical-prisoner/

[wufwugy]

Trump's emo now. I can't fucking stop laughing.

[OngBonga]

I don't think they're being held illegally. They're foreigners, which means they only have the right to be in this country if they are deemed welcome. If I turned up in USA and the govt decided they don't want me there, then I'll get locked up and deported.

Of course, it's interesting that we'll be such cunts to an American and an Austrian in order to protect the feelings of immigrants.

And detaining people for no good reason is something we have form for. See Ecuadorian Embassy.

[OngBonga]

google - Cassandra Fairbanks
tab - news

*nothing*

[OngBonga]

BBC -search - Cassandra Fairbanks
Last article - 5th Oct 2016

[OngBonga]

They're covering this up big time.

[Poopadoop]

And detaining people for no good reason is something we have form for. See Ecuadorian Embassy.

You know Assange works for Putin, right?

Do you want your government to stick up for you or for Russia?

[OngBonga]

lol works for Putin. Had you argued Snowden works for him, I'd have nodded in agreement. But Assange? Not a chance.

[OngBonga]

Also, we're no better than Russia. We pretend to have this moral high ground when it comes to Russia, but it's all a crock of shit.