Christmas Carnage II

[a500lbgorilla]

Right, you're thinking on JKDS was broken into 3 categories:

JKDS is doing it as a villager: 0%, he would only do it as a seer.
JKDS is doing it as a seer: 0%, he's just playing bad.
JKDS is doing it as a wolf: 100%, he's just playing bad.

The fact that you acknowledge that his actions polarize his range to Boog wolf - JKDS seer OR Boog unknown - JKDS wolf, means that all you need to believe that gabe is a good seer shot is his hinting his rand at all. It polarizes his range in your mind. To you, gabe is a good hit without knowing if he's right, because he thinks he's right and that's all that counts.

QED Wolf team doesn't need me on the team to hit gabe, they just need to see gabe believing in his rand. That his hint missed is just gravy.

[OngBonga]

QED Wolf team doesn't need me on the team to hit gabe, they just need to see gabe believing in his rand. That his hint missed is just gravy.

I thought for a minute you had a point here. But I don't think you do.

When gabe first made his comment, I was alarmed, but when taken in the context of the shit I'd been giving JKDS for exactly that, it's hard to believe a seer (or wolf) would say what he did. I don't think that his apparent belief alone is enough of a special tell to hit him.

I think they knew he was special, and they know that because they know he's right about rilla. It's still the most logical conclusion I can draw.

[a500lbgorilla]

I thought for a minute you had a point here. But I don't think you do.

When gabe first made his comment, I was alarmed, but when taken in the context of the shit I'd been giving JKDS for exactly that, it's hard to believe a seer (or wolf) would say what he did. I don't think that his apparent belief alone is enough of a special tell to hit him.

I think they knew he was special, and they know that because they know he's right about rilla. It's still the most logical conclusion I can draw.

Wolves can know he's special based only on him thinking he was special. They do not need the additional information of his second bid being right or wrong.

You insist that they do need this information, but it's plainly simple that gabe could win the first bidding round and lose the second as others adjust their bid strategy or others counter bid him as I'm a beloved villager around these parts.

My point stands and the heaven's sing.

You need to get off your logical conclusions because they've failed you enough already.