Russians vs. Americans: A Werewolf Game for October 2015

[Luco]

My head hurts now. I was convinced it was gator but damn, his last few posts are screaming villager

[GatorJH]

My head hurts now. I was convinced it was gator but damn, his last few posts are screaming villager

Which of wuf or rascal would have not poisoned me last night? The other is the wolf.

[SuperMonkeyFace]

Wuf can't be the poisoned. I think a power role claims 100% of the time while poisoned, which he did not

[SuperMonkeyFace]

Poisoner*

[SuperMonkeyFace]

I don't think wuf has any knees

[GatorJH]

Wuf can't be the poisoned. I think a power role claims 100% of the time while poisoned, which he did not

Then he is most likely the wolf and rascal is the poisoner.

[HiFi]

Oh awesome it seems that I have been peeked.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'm fine with a lynch wuf

not my game, indeed.

[GatorJH]

I'm fine with a lynch wuf

not my game, indeed.

agreed
rescind
lynch wuf

[GatorJH]

Wuf can't be the poisoned. I think a power role claims 100% of the time while poisoned, which he did not

Although it was pretty early in the day when he was cured. He may have been waiting a bit to see if that happened.

[GatorJH]

I do think the poisoner needs to out today just to make sure he lives and I think it is down to either Wuf or Rascal.

[GatorJH]

rescind until poisoner outs

[Luco]

Oh awesome it seems that I have been peeked.

Yep. Just remember to check in in case we need your vote

[GatorJH]

Everybody needs to rescind until the poisoner outs. If the poisoner doesn't out lynch me.

[wufwugy]

K fine I didn't actually read thru gator I just took everyone's word he was wimming.

What about mmm? I've had him as clear all game but I don't really know why. Have I been pocketed?

still dont know what wifom is. looked it up several times. still cant remember. somebody explain it

[wufwugy]

My head hurts now. I was convinced it was gator but damn, his last few posts are screaming villager

how?

gator is one of the best at posting v-like as a wolf fyi. the clues are in other things, like his total crap argument for rascal. go back and look at it. it's not even an argument. he constructed no case. it was bunch of non sequitur. gator is a much better hunter than that, which means he's either the wolf or not on his a-game (or b-game)

[wufwugy]

Or peek wuf, poison gator.

I mean gator probably concedes here, but he subbed in late, maybe he wants to practise his wolfing. He's not trying to win, he's just trying to convince us he's not the wolf.

That's also possible.

on all of ftr, gator is the player who concedes the latest. i *think* he did it in a role madness game where it was totally locked up and he had faked as some really wacky special (but i dont recall). another time he didn't even "concede" after he died and his name was red. he typically goes to his dying breath. only keybored out-muscles him in that regard.

[MadMojoMonkey]

still dont know what wifom is. looked it up several times. still cant remember. somebody explain it

Wine In Front Of Me
It means when you're overthinking a scenario to the point of vacillating between two contrary conclusions.


BTW: game is locked. If you're the poisoner, you can safely out and lock it up 100%. The analysis to as much has been done by many in thread, so go over it and then claim.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Everybody needs to rescind until the poisoner outs. If the poisoner doesn't out lynch me.

OK

rescind wuf

[wufwugy]

Wine In Front Of Me
It means when you're overthinking a scenario to the point of vacillating between two contrary conclusions.

fwiw gator is one of the last people to wifom. ive literally never seen it from him as a villager.

[GatorJH]

Wuf, are you the poisoner? If so, please out.

[GatorJH]

a role madness game where it was totally locked up and he had faked as some really wacky special

You gotta admit that one was pretty awesome. I was thisclose to selling it to!!!!

I may have to find that one just for good times.

[MadMojoMonkey]

i *think* he did it in a role madness game where it was totally locked up and he had faked as some really wacky special (but i dont recall).

That game was not locked up at that time, IIRC. It was World War Werewolf, and I think it was the only game I've ever been a PR.

Yes, his claim was something like, "I am the leader of all the things. If I die, then the village loses by default." Except a lot better than that, but basically the same sentiment.

[MadMojoMonkey]

You gotta admit that one was pretty awesome. I was thisclose to selling it to!!!!

I may have to find that one just for good times.

JKDS nailed you, though. In the end, I voted with JKDS, I think. 'Cause he posted that evil grinning Dexter gif at EOD, and it's burned in my brain how skurred I was that JKDS just pwned me.

[GatorJH]

That game was not locked up at that time, IIRC. It was World War Werewolf, and I think it was the only game I've ever been a PR.

Yes, his claim was something like, "I am the leader of all the things. If I die, then the village loses by default." Except a lot better than that, but basically the same sentiment.

YEAH!! I will post the link to that one.

This was also a good one. It came down to me (wolf), rilla and wuf. Wuf made the right call to lynch me on the last day.

[GatorJH]

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...195297-24.html

Link for above referenced game

[MadMojoMonkey]

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...195297-24.html

Link for above referenced game

I was talking about this game and this fake claim.

[GatorJH]

Here it is - I describe the role in post 1003 and it took through post 1217 to lynch me. Good times, good times.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...196348-14.html

[GatorJH]

I was talking about this game and this fake claim.

Yeah, my link was to the game where it got down to me, rilla and wuf.

[SuperMonkeyFace]

still dont know what wifom is. looked it up several times. still cant remember. somebody explain it

I don't know what wifom is either. Why u quoted my post to say that, I don't know

[GatorJH]

Wuf isn't claiming poisoner so I bet he is the last wolf.

[wufwugy]

double check my math. blue is cv, red is wolf, purple is poisoner, green is poisoned target.

SCENARIO 1

assuming nom in dark and hits poisoner. assuming mmm is poisoner

d4 players

Beck Novo
Hifi
SuperMonkeyFace
lilrascal
Luco
MadMojoMonkey
OngBonga
Wufwugy
GatorJH

d4n4 actions

lynch wuf
poison luco
peek rascal
nom mmm

d5 players

Beck Novo
Hifi
SuperMonkeyFace
lilrascal
Luco poisoned
OngBonga
GatorJH

d5n5 actions

lynch ong
luco succumbed
nom beck

d6 players

Hifi
SuperMonkeyFace
lilrascal
GatorJH

lynch gator ftwwwwwww!

**** SCENARIO 1 PART 2: assume beck peeks the nommed target accidentally and rascal is not cv ****

d6n6 actions

lynch rascal
nom hifi

d7 players

SuperMonkeyFace
GatorJH

wolfy wolf gator wiiiiiiiinns!


SCENARIO 2

assuming beck nom. assuming poisoner is mmm and nommed next

d4 players

Beck Novo
Hifi
SuperMonkeyFace
lilrascal
Luco
MadMojoMonkey
OngBonga
Wufwugy
GatorJH

d4n4 actions

lynch wuf
poison rascal
nom beck

d5 players

Hifi
SuperMonkeyFace
lilrascal poisoned
Luco
MadMojoMonkey
OngBonga
GatorJH

d5n5 actions

luco lynched
rascal succumed
ong poisoned
mmm nommed

d6 players

Hifi
SuperMonkeyFace
OngBonga poisoned
GatorJH

lynch gator ftwwwwwwwww!







if these are correct. the only way it is not locked up is if the seer poisoner and wolf hit the same target. so if this is correct, it means the poisoner needs to out and needs to confirm with beck which different targets they are going to hit

[wufwugy]

how do these change if the wolf noms a poisoned target?

[wufwugy]

off top of head im assuming if wolf hits poisoned target it's more than locked in for v win

[wufwugy]

I don't know what wifom is either. Why u quoted my post to say that, I don't know

you said wimming. i thought that was abrev for wifom

[Beck Novo]

how do these change if the wolf noms a poisoned target?

Why would the wolf ever not eat the cleared players? (i.e. HiFi, SMF, the Poisoner, and myself)

If the wolf wants to eat into the PoE then he only speeds up his inevitable demise.

[wufwugy]

Why would the wolf ever not eat the cleared players? (i.e. HiFi, SMF, the Poisoner, and myself)

If the wolf wants to eat into the PoE then he only speeds up his inevitable demise.

yeah that became clear to me after i posted it

[Luco]

Why would the wolf ever not eat the cleared players? (i.e. HiFi, SMF, the Poisoner, and myself)

If the wolf wants to eat into the PoE then he only speeds up his inevitable demise.

Yeah this.

Also, I don't think it matters if seer & poisoner target the same person as the end result is the same (removal of that player from poe)

[wufwugy]

Yeah this.

Also, I don't think it matters if seer & poisoner target the same person as the end result is the same (removal of that player from poe)

look at my post. if the poisoner is hit tonight and beck doesn't get a lookup, it's not cinched.

[Luco]

look at my post. if the poisoner is hit tonight and beck doesn't get a lookup, it's not cinched.

Yes it is.

[wufwugy]

Yes it is.

oh wait yeah because smf would just heal him

[wufwugy]

so why hasnt the wolf conceded

[wufwugy]

unless there's a way for the wolf to nom smf tonight and that be better for him. im not sure how that would be the case

[Luco]

oh wait yeah because smf would just heal him

I was just typing a post to explain this but you got there on your own :thumb:

[Luco]

so why hasnt the wolf conceded

Because they haven't posted since we did the math (rascal), or they have reasons for continuing that don't involve winning

[wufwugy]

well whatever im not going to draw this out, even if it means there is some small chance it isn't locked up. at least four of you seem to think it's locked, and my own analysis of it is that it's locked, so here it is

me poisoner

[wufwugy]

i suspect the last wolf was extremely close to figuring that out by now

[Luco]

well whatever im not going to draw this out, even if it means there is some small chance it isn't locked up. at least four of you seem to think it's locked, and my own analysis of it is that it's locked, so here it is

me poisoner

lynch gator

[baudib]

HI,

Spoiler: Show

I'm Wufwugy.

[wufwugy]

in case you wanna know, here's my write up for my play

i poisoned siu. he was slanking and everybody skipped over him for gizmo for d1 lynch.

batm for the same slanking reasons. im not much of a soulreader, but i do think it's important for vigs to weed out the players most untethered (and subsequently hardest to read and biggest endgame liabilities).

smf for the "most untethered" reasons. plus his soft hard soft claim was so weird that it couldnt have come from a seer and was very unlikely to have come from a vanilla. i could see what he did as a wolf plus an iso of him looked worse than gator's. mainly i just didnt wanna hit the seer, and i thought he was never seer so it was fine.

my play strategy was to slip inside that tiny box where you're unlynchable as well as unnommable. so i had to play a little carelessly and rustle some jimmies, while also getting cleared in doing so. wolves have a really hard time nomming players they think the village is not happy with, but i have a history of being able to get cleared by the village by making them unhappy so i figured i could do it.

my self bold was me trying to say "if you really want me dead then you'll get your wish", becuase i thought it was a powerful way to make villagers not want to lynch me and wolves not want to nom me

[Luco]

you said wimming. i thought that was abrev for wifom

WIM = want it more

[Beck Novo]

Awesome.

Any CCs?

(Please CC.)

[Beck Novo]

Lynch Gator

[Luco]

Gator there's 18 hours left and no MAJ in force, props to you if you wanna play it out but you've already more than earned your arooo

[Beck Novo]

PoE

Gator, MMM, lilrascal, Luco, Ong

One today, two tomorrow, two the final day.

@baud, if the final wolf doesn't concede, can we play like hour long days/nights?

[HiFi]

Withholding vote to avoid maj

[Luco]

Withholding vote to avoid maj

Theres no maj till MYLO

[OngBonga]

the only way it is not locked up is if the seer poisoner and wolf hit the same target.

This is what I was holding out for.

I had you as posioner and was totally nomming you tonight, hoping beck peeks you. Not happening now.

I concede.

Arooooo motherfuckers.

[Luco]

This is what I was holding out for.

I had you as posioner and was totally nomming you tonight, hoping beck peeks you. Not happening now.

I concede.

Arooooo motherfuckers.

Whaaat

Fucking wp

[wufwugy]

great job ong!

I had you as posioner and was totally nomming you tonight, hoping beck peeks you. Not happening now.

i am pretty astonished at how well everybody else was a so emphatically clearing themselves from being a special. even without that, the poison patterns point towards me. i didnt think there was much that could be done about that though.

[OngBonga]

Yeah I'm pleased that noone had me pegged after d2, but we fucked up with boog's claim. If he holds his backup claim for a day, we win. So close, but i crunched the numbers a day too late.

wp village.

[wufwugy]

wolf and dead threads?

[OngBonga]

fwiw it's much easier to play wolf when everyone thinks you're a villager. I pretty much convinced myself I was a villager, I had to stop myself from pointing out the poisoner needs to out today!

[OngBonga]

wolf and dead threads?

I don't think this is going public. I believe one of the wolves is reserving his/her right to privacy in this regard. As far as I'm concerned, it's up to him/her is he/she wants it public.

[Luco]

fwiw it's much easier to play wolf when everyone thinks you're a villager. I pretty much convinced myself I was a villager, I had to stop myself from pointing out the poisoner needs to out today!

Yeah I've found this too

You had so so so so much in your favour this game

Hardon for drew
pushing for aubrey
Advising against a gizmo lynch
SHOOTING AUBREY
pushing hard at boog
it goes on and on

[OngBonga]

Don't forget drew blasting the only wolf having any serious chance of winning.

[OngBonga]

I don't think I'm ever getting village cred again after this game.

[OngBonga]

luco I was convinced you were seer, but I had the luxury of taking out the confirmed special last night, and waiting for a claim.

wuf hitting SMF was a) bad because it should've been obvious he was healer or last wolf, a lost cause for him anyway, b) offered me a lifeline because it kept gator vanilla in the game (I knew he was vanilla, our only peek was bigred), and c) told me that wuf was poisoner because I know how much he hates following village stratgey when special.

I'd probably have concede much earlier had wuf posioned gator.

[Luco]

Don't forget drew blasting the only wolf having any serious chance of winning.

That too

[OngBonga]

The seer is this game is perfect, fwiw. That a seer can be this deep and still the game isn't always locked is outstanding.

[Luco]

I don't think I'm ever getting village cred again after this game.

This may be the best wolf game ive ever seen from you.

I tip my hat

[Beck Novo]

In all honesty, Ong, I would've guessed you were the last wolf last of any of the players left in the PoE.

[Beck Novo]

Mostly based upon your early interactions with BID.

[wufwugy]

wasnt the village strategy to poison smf if boog flipped w?

it isnt that i dont like village strategy on specials, but i dont read them. things are better without specials talk because the natural state is for villagers to be adept at showing their vanillaness when discussing specials and for specials to have a hard time of keeping from giving out tells when talking specials

[OngBonga]

In all honesty, Ong, I would've guessed you were the last wolf last of any of the players left in the PoE.

You have the luxury of not having seen me as wolf before, so it doesn't surprise me. People here know I can be easy to read with my tone, and here I did an great job of playing my villager game thanks to the fact I didn't have to defend myself.