im trying to think of a smart way to estimate what our chances are. they must be high. but remember if we catch a wolf later we get lots of info from this playing out (whether they are on either half)
05-26-2015 09:50 PM
#301
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im trying to think of a smart way to estimate what our chances are. they must be high. but remember if we catch a wolf later we get lots of info from this playing out (whether they are on either half) | |
05-26-2015 09:51 PM
#302
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05-26-2015 09:52 PM
#303
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05-26-2015 09:52 PM
#304
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05-26-2015 09:52 PM
#305
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Im not so sure. Post count isnt role indicative for a lot of players here (baud, ong, and wuf to name a few), and it is almost always the case that there is one wolf in the top posters. If that happens, no wolf gets lynched today. | |
05-26-2015 09:53 PM
#306
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I don't think Luco's been extremely wolfy, but the absence of active, villagery Luco is notable in an FTR game. | |
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05-26-2015 09:54 PM
#307
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Would it? Im not so sure. Suppose Player A is a wolf, and Player B is a wolf. A vetos B. | |
05-26-2015 09:55 PM
#308
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basically the doom scenario (besides multiple wolves, which i feel is very minimal) is that one villager accidentally vetos a wolf, then the single wolf in the top 5 can spare the other wolf, and no wolf dies | |
05-26-2015 09:56 PM
#309
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05-26-2015 09:57 PM
#310
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leaving game until late night | |
05-26-2015 09:57 PM
#311
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05-26-2015 09:58 PM
#312
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There are approximately 35 hours remaining in Day 1. | |
05-26-2015 09:59 PM
#313
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05-26-2015 10:03 PM
#314
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05-26-2015 10:06 PM
#315
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To your point 1. I'd guess there is most likely at least 1 wolf in the top 5 just based on percentages. | |
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05-26-2015 10:26 PM
#316
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I'm not against it. | |
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05-26-2015 10:48 PM
#317
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In a way I'm fine with Gabe's plan because it has some hypothetical benefit, but the problem is that when a plan like this is followed through, it means that it happened because the wolves see it resulting in a village lynch. |
05-26-2015 10:54 PM
#318
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BID isn't Big Red. It's not like he just goes AWOL for a week at a time. | |
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05-26-2015 10:55 PM
#319
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We are a very slow-paced pool of players. I have gone till midgame several times not saying anything about half the players. I tend to sit on reads to see if they compound and thus signify that they are legitimate. Most FTR players don't pump out reads like the kind of games you're probably used to, and definitely unlike the style you employ. I remember a recent game that you didn't play with us, Ronk had gone like two weeks without mentioning Hoopy once, and I was adamant that this couldn't happen if he was a villager. So we gat him and lo n behold he was a villager. |
05-26-2015 11:04 PM
#320
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I disagree with both. BID has gone AWOL for long periods more than once. |
05-27-2015 12:30 AM
#321
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ITG Wuf wants to avoid talking about or lynching any of the wolfy players, because that kind of stuff can lead to mislynches sometimes. | |
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05-27-2015 12:56 AM
#322
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The only reason I haven't blasted you is that I've come to learn you say all sorts of wrong things as a villager. Like the fact that you say I don't want to lynch any wolfy players. If you paid any attention to what I actually said, you wouldn't say that. I explicitly said I don't think anybody is particularly wolfy. You tend to think that the first ten hours of play is all that is needed to figure everything out. I tend to think that it takes several gamedays of accumulated information. |
05-27-2015 01:26 AM
#323
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It's ~40 hours, it's over 300 posts. There has been plenty of wolfy posts by a lot of people. We lynch wolves on D1 around here these days. | |
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05-27-2015 01:32 AM
#324
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05-27-2015 01:33 AM
#325
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"I'll do something blatantly anti-village and I don't care and hey, I've been drinking." | |
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05-27-2015 02:07 AM
#326
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I'll be gone after D4 but I can still vote during that time. I just won't be able to follow along and make quality decisions (not that I've ever made a correct bold before, because I don't think I have). | |
05-27-2015 02:12 AM
#327
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05-27-2015 02:19 AM
#328
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05-27-2015 02:25 AM
#329
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Drew, thanks for checking in. You've been historically good at reading Ong -- lmk what you think. | |
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05-27-2015 02:33 AM
#330
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Ok that's been done to death so I shan't chime in. | |
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05-27-2015 03:00 AM
#331
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Rong already has more posts this game than the entire Hotshots game where he lived to the end as a wolf. | |
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05-27-2015 04:21 AM
#332
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Whilst I appreciate bring considered a villager this game, my post count is entirely down to my level of free time and being online at the same time as others. I'd be active as a wolf if I have free time too. | |
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05-27-2015 05:20 AM
#333
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05-27-2015 05:30 AM
#334
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05-27-2015 05:31 AM
#335
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wuf vs hoopy is on!! | |
05-27-2015 05:34 AM
#336
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05-27-2015 05:40 AM
#337
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05-27-2015 05:43 AM
#338
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Wuf seems vilager to me. | |
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05-27-2015 05:44 AM
#339
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05-27-2015 05:44 AM
#340
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BID has posted twice and has said he will be barely participating later on in the game. How are we ever to figure out his role. If he can't be replaced (LOOKING AT YOU HERE MOD!) then he needs to go now rather than later. | |
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05-27-2015 05:48 AM
#341
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Sounds sexy. The nasty kind of sexy though, the one that makes it difficult to look each other in the eye the mornin after | |
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05-27-2015 05:52 AM
#342
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05-27-2015 05:53 AM
#343
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05-27-2015 05:54 AM
#344
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05-27-2015 05:58 AM
#345
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I think bid discussion is premature. | |
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05-27-2015 06:00 AM
#346
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his defense is "i was fucked up so i did something fucked up" | |
05-27-2015 06:02 AM
#347
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05-27-2015 06:06 AM
#348
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wolfy points for hoopy. | |
05-27-2015 06:13 AM
#349
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What hoopy/wuf dual? You just invented it. Its not a thing in its own right you can refer to. You're trying to make it a thing and acting like it already is a thing to ensure it happens. That's sneaky and manipulative. | |
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05-27-2015 06:14 AM
#350
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^^^ at gabe obv. | |
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05-27-2015 06:17 AM
#351
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And we're far better lynching an inactive than a player we're suspicious of because our suspicions today are bases off of day 1 nonsense and then on day 2 or 3 we have to waste a kill on the inactive. So either way in 3 days it's 2 lynches for wolfiness and one for inactivity except in one option your wolfiness is based on 2 and 3 days of suspicion and evidence and in the other one of the wolfiness lynches are based off day one nonsense. | |
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05-27-2015 07:24 AM
#352
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05-27-2015 07:33 AM
#353
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Anyone else think Luco is following gabe's line too readily? | |
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05-27-2015 07:55 AM
#354
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To properly determine whether gabe is correct that post count does still correlate with wolfiness we'd need to look at individual day post counts for each game rather than totals. Because total post count is skewed by extra posts at the end and people who get killed early obviously having lower overall counts. Might have to control for other factors as well. | |
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05-27-2015 08:23 AM
#355
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Another long day 1. I had to quickly skim and will probably go through the thread a lot more at work. That said, Gabe accepting another weak Ong excuse (after Ong explicitly posted that he'd change that) is suspect. What'll it take for Ong to end up on the radar? | |
05-27-2015 08:23 AM
#356
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Him is Ong | |
05-27-2015 08:45 AM
#357
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lynch hoopy | |
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05-27-2015 08:49 AM
#358
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boog feels more sincere than last game when I hard defended him and then he turned on me. I think he actually believes I'm a wolf. Same with rascal. | |
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05-27-2015 09:08 AM
#359
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a500lbgorilla - v | |
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05-27-2015 09:23 AM
#360
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So before I taint myself (heh) by reading the thread in detail, I want to point out that, while post counts may be indicative of something, total post counts may be the wrong metric. I think it's more important to find inconsistencies in post counts with regard to past games. | |
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05-27-2015 09:31 AM
#361
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05-27-2015 09:58 AM
#362
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05-27-2015 10:21 AM
#363
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I noticed a lot of inexplicably weird things people have said this morning. I'll point out a few of them | |
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05-27-2015 10:21 AM
#364
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05-27-2015 10:22 AM
#365
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05-27-2015 10:28 AM
#366
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Well I suppose he could be vanilla hoping the wolves see the crumb. | |
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05-27-2015 10:38 AM
#367
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05-27-2015 10:41 AM
#368
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05-27-2015 11:10 AM
#369
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05-27-2015 11:12 AM
#370
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05-27-2015 11:16 AM
#371
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Luco is showing signs of life here, so that's encouraging. | |
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05-27-2015 11:18 AM
#372
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It's still true, btw, that on Level 0-1, Gabe pointing out Ong's wolfiness and then backing off reads like W-W, but neither Gabe nor Ong are Level 1 players. | |
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05-27-2015 11:23 AM
#373
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05-27-2015 11:26 AM
#374
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05-27-2015 11:28 AM
#375
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