Varchertine's Werewolf Game Thread

[a500lbgorilla]

That's the best part. Check out the sign up thread where I said I was IN.

PS I didn't. I shitposted when he opened the thread and JKDS brought me in anyway.

[BankItDrew]

and you've never seen Wuf wolf before, so when he does something totally out of character, this makes you think he's a plain ol' normal villager Wuf?

ok

I agree. I'd need a solid baseline to determine what wuf would be like as a wolf and as a villager.

The only reason I see for him self-lynching though is:

As a villager, he's butthurt.
As a wolf, he's attempting to provide V-cred to a br - daven w-v pair. Or super cover for a br-daven w-w pair.

[a500lbgorilla]

I agree. I'd need a solid baseline to determine what wuf would be like as a wolf and as a villager.

The only reason I see for him self-lynching though is:

As a villager, he's butthurt.
As a wolf, he's attempting to provide V-cred to a br - daven w-v pair. Or super cover for a br-daven w-w pair.

Or, do it to see if the village will trip over itself trying to figure out why.

Remember, the village tends to trip over itself. Even when it has specials.

[BankItDrew]

Or, do it to see if the village will trip over itself trying to figure out why.

Remember, the village tends to trip over itself. Even when it has specials.

Agreed.

So am I stupid but self-aware? Or are people allergic to admitting when they're wrong?

[baudib]

BigRed would be more interested as a wolf. Daven's ratio of villageryness per post might be the highest in the game.

Daven or BR is a terrible lynch.

[BankItDrew]

I feel like baudib and rilla are successfully railroading me.

[a500lbgorilla]

I feel like baudib and rilla are successfully railroading me.

Shhhh just bite down on this pillow.

[baudib]

BID - villager
Rilla - villager
-----------------
Daven -- really likely villager. I would love to see more volume from him though, unlike BID/Rilla, he can be a really good/deceptive wolf
Monstr -- likely villager, but his inactivity is somewhat concerning, considering it's him
MMM -- his arguments are pretty pro-villa
----------------
Ong -- feels like a villager. Maybe I'm giving him too much credit but I feel his game has been too..nitty...for my liking. arguing about things that don't matter and pretending that small indicators are unalienable truths is really worrisome, plus...

Rascal -- Has been arguably wolfy but I just find it hard to believe he takes this line as a wolf.

I'm not really interested in killing off this pair today, granted there will be a wolf here a pretty high% of the time.
--------------------------------
null

Keybored -- I've forgotten any of the reasons people thought Keybored was a villager. Keybored seems to be more coherent as a wolf.
BigRed -- confirmed BR
Luco -- Luco has several very good posts. But I feel like he's the guy who's content watching the world burn. I think villager Luco plays a bigger leadership role here.
Hoopy -- some villa points for not clearing his partner. His participation and attempts at discerning alignments has been SEVERELY lacking

--------------------

Wuf
Boog

[OngBonga]

Keybored -- I've forgotten any of the reasons people thought Keybored was a villager. Keybored seems to be more coherent as a wolf.

Says the guy who ISO'd everyone.

[Luco]

We still got >24hrs to eod right?

[daven]

interesting wagon play from 398 through until the lynch. i've got a wall to post... i'll post it in a couple of sections based on separate wagon times

Are all of you incapable of reading? I'm not blaming anyone.

If Gabe flips V then have at me, I'm owning it.

lol

[daven]

here's the lead-in to the wuf vs boog (most of those wuf votes were early day)

post 398 vote count unofficial w

wuf(5) - boog, daven, key, MMM, ong
boog(2) - gabe, rilla
baud(1) - monstr
daven(1) - Luco
gabe(1) - baud
MMM(1) - wuf
ong(1) - rong

no vote(4) - BID, bigred, hoopy, rascal


bid jumps on boog based on wuf not a wolf, boog next highest wagon (402)
wuf 5, boog 3, baud 1


baudib on boog, sponging bid (413)
wuf 5, boog 4, gabe 0, baud 1


hoopy on boog, based on can't self lynch (423)
wuf 5, boog 5, baud 1


rong on boog, based on 'I'm not over the moon with his lynch but not overly against it either and I think it's better than wuf. '
wuf 5, boog 6, baud 1


baudib 439 – bad wagons, moves to keybored without reasoning other than post 436 'I think we need a different counter wagon to Boog. I'm pretty sure Wuf is a horrible lynch today. '
wuf 5, boog 5, baud 1


ong 444 – moves off wuf and onto boog 'This is kinda painful because I think he's a solid player and gets way too much heat in early game when he shouldn't. That said... His aggression feels forced to me.
Wuf 4, boog 6, baud 1


keybored 447 – lynch bigred interesting link to wuf here, wuf on the block and keybored moves his vote without explaining why he thinks wuf is a bad lynch 'With your whopping 5 posts this game I suppose you're out saving the world. Strong V cred if that's the case. Smack talk for high content coming from no-content person is redonk.'
wuf 3, boog 6, baud 1


ong 461/462 rescind boog, lynch gabe 'I agree with boog. I like the tone of his defence there, furthermore I feel gabe was sketchy in his vote for boog, and certainly am still reading gabe as wolfy. '
wuf 3, boog 5 gabe 1, baud 1

[daven]

the rise and fall of the temporary baudib wagon - interesting to note that people wanted him dead but decided rilla's survival was more important
keybored gets a lot of village points for his correct and useful vote-count updates\


mmm – 465 rescind wuf, lynch baudib
wuf 2, boog 5, baudib 2


boog – 468 off wuf and onto baudib ' I want to make it clear that my intentions here are rilla. '
wuf 1, boog 5, baudib 3


baudib off keybored, onto gabe


wuf 1, boog 5, baudib 3, gabe 2


rong off boog, onto luco
wuf 1, boog 4, baudib 3, gabe 2


keybored off bigred, onto wuf
wuf 2, boog 4, baudib 3, gabe 2


boog off baudib, onto gabe (based on the claimed pov slip 'knowing' ong = villager
wuf 2, boog 4, baudib 2, gabe 3


512 rilla lynch gabe (off boog)
wuf 2, boog 3, baudib 2, gabe 4


517 rong off luco, onto baudib
wuf 2, boog 3, baudib 3, gabe 4


535 gabe rescinds boog, lynches baudib with a long post to explain
wuf 2, boog 2, baudib 4, gabe 4


post 554 from keybored – this votecount update is super valuable for the village at this stage in the wagon, village points for key


**UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT**

GABE (4) -- Ong, Baudib, Boog, Rilla
BAUD (4) -- Monstr, MMM, Rong, Gabe
WUF (2) -- Daven, Keybored
BOOG (2) -- BID, Hoopy
MMM -- Wuf
Daven -- Luco

Never voted: BigRed & LilRascal

Known Pairings:

BAUDIB-RILLA
BID-MMM
WUF-HOOPY
BOOG-MONSTR




post 566 hoopy rescind boog
gabe 4, baud 4, wuf 2, boog 1, mmm 1, daven 1




gabe 578 rescind baud (to save rilla but still wants baudi deaded), lynch boog
gabe 4, baud 3, wuf 2, boog 2, mmm 1, daven 1


631 rong off baud, on boog
gabe 4, baud 2, wuf 2, boog 3, mmm 1, daven 1

[daven]

boog vs gabe with the eventual gabe lynch
note that wuf posted a vote count at 684 that was incorrect...


637 luco off me and onto wuf
gabe 4, baud 2, wuf 3, boog 3, mmm 1


638 rilla off gabe, onto wuf
gabe 3, baud 2, wuf 4, boog 3, mmm 1


644 hoopy back on boog
gabe 3, baud 2, wuf 4, boog 4, mmm 1


646 rilla off wuf, onbo boog
gabe 3, baud 2, wuf 3, boog 5, mmm 1


keybored again with the vc post 654
Since Rascal and Daven just showed up, here's an unofficial VC to help them end d1:

BOOG (5) = BID, Gabe, Rong, Hoopy, Rilla
GABE (3) = Ong, Baudib, Boog
WUF (3) = Daven, Keybored, Luco
BAUD (2) = Monstr, MMM
MMM = Wuf

No votes: BigRed, LilRascal

Known Outed Pairs:

BAUDIB-RILLA
BID-MMM
GABE-RONG
HOOPY-WUF
MONSTR-BOOG


post 660 lilrascal on gabe
boog 5, gabe 4, wuf 3, baud 2, mmm 1


mmm off baud on boog
boog 6, gabe 4, wuf 2, baud 1, mmm 1


post 734 wuf off mmm, on gabe
boog 6, gabe 5, wuf 2, baud 1


post 736 me off wuf, lynch gabe (based on boog/gabe both villa, rong more likely wolf than monstr )
boog 6, gabe 6, wuf 1, baud 1


looks like boog was the lynch (first to reach 6) until mmm switched and this could prove to be important info


post 752 rescind boog lynch gabe
boog 5, gabe 7, wuf 1, baud 1

[baudib]

oh yeah, afaict Wuf never had any interest in the Boog wagon.

[baudib]

lynch in this order

Wuf, Boog, Keybored, Ong (Rascal), Luco

village wins/rerand

[daven]

We still got >24hrs to eod right?

hope so, i need to take a break to absorb what happened in those day 1 wagons.
First though, i'm going to quote gabe's dying words, post 600 onwards:

baudib, boog, wuf are my 3 targets


tomorrow the game is going to be a real puzzle. there will be a best answer on what to do based on killing different pairs. tomorrow together we will come up with the best strategy, and anyone who disputes it will be shown as non village. there will be no escaping for wolves, they will have to follow the solution, or die even faster. i hope to be around tomorrow

ya if we're not wolves then the wolves sure are voting for us !

no MMM, you are not off. it's completely right. just like IRL when people sing the lyrics so songs, those are the lyrics the person relates to. often time different people are selective of different lyrics of the same song. people dont sing lyrics of things that they dont also think about (in some way). i stacked a guy once using that read but thats a story for a different forum

obviously we cant set the precedent "post song lyrics and be cleared" but it applies in this case

youre wrong dudes

i just played the longest, sharpest wolf game of my life. i would not let some dumb wolf slip happen on day 1 post 1 like you guys are speculating.

whoever used these weak arguments to persuade others against me is probably a wolf

we shouldve killed baudib or wuf today btw

rilla whats wrong with my EW equation? it is appropriate from my perspective

based on EW, rilla/baudib were a good shot. and an even better shot if rilla might be pulling a big move here

[baudib]

well that was a lot of waiting for nothing. GJGE Daven

[BankItDrew]

I love the patronizing GJGE kid

[Keybored]

lynch in this order. Wuf, Boog, Keybored, Ong (Rascal), Luco. village wins/rerand

I'm 80% drunk but even through beer goggles this seems 100% bassackwards. If we proceed on this path the game is def over. But not in favor of the village. Jeez, Baud, this roadmap for what NOT to do is redonk. You're a much better wolf than this. What happened??

[Keybored]

Oh yah...WTF is GJGE????

[Keybored]

Daven...Your chained to a lead ball of a partner. Can you give us any insight on this dude? Or is he ignoring you too? Sorry, chap, but if he's OFO, then them's the brakes. Give us the scoop so we can judge. We gotta cut bait if there's no bite.

[Luco]

Good job good effort

Yay another drunk

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'm fairly convinced baud is a baddy here.

I'm seeing aggression, opportunism, double-talk reads... all tone stuff, but I think it's enough to vote.

lynch baudib

[BankItDrew]

Hey lover

lynch baudib

[MadMojoMonkey]

Hi, BID!

[BankItDrew]

I'm the loyal lion

[lilrascal]

Where were you reading up about me?

I was remembering the postgame for the last werewolf game where you seemed very angry and you said: "I think you'll find, I'm a douchebag."

[lilrascal]

You detailed my thought progression explicitly.

What do you think I need to explain?


All villagers need to take a deep breath.

@Ong: I'm listening, but I don't recall any strong argument for or against boog/monstr as a team.
Please re-state or link to original post.

Also, we obviously care, but we have a lot of data to sift through and we must make up our own mind-brains.

One of the great lessons I had to accept in the fallout of my self-lynch was that:
Even though I'm frustrated, and it SEEMS like people aren't listening, they are. They are just equally frustrated and dealing with it in their own way. If I'm not convincing them, then it's incumbent on me to figure out what I can do differently.

No, I didn't detail your thought process, I detailed the flow of the thread. Ong inocrrectly mentioned to you that the VC was wrong, but you discounted it.

Why would disregard that information?

[lilrascal]

apparently you have no idea how reads work. all of our reads in this game are threadflow and style specific. i have zero desire to privately talk with anybody unless it's a romeo and juliet thing, where we already know each others' roles.

it's a little funny that you were so gung ho about rascal being a wolf because of private chat, but now you arent. there's all the info you need that it's not giving you any valuable information. and here we are, left having to suss out the real meaning of this lack of information

the first thing every villager should have done is not engage in any private chat. am i the only person here who has a theoretical understanding of how this game works. apparently i am, which i guess makes sense since i get to almost every endgame and i keep winning them all

Wuf, I essentially made this same argument in the last game and you called me wolfy for it and pushed for my mislynch. Why the change?

[MadMojoMonkey]

No, I didn't detail your thought process, I detailed the flow of the thread. Ong inocrrectly mentioned to you that the VC was wrong, but you discounted it.

Why would disregard that information?

I think we're picking nits over flow of thread vs. my thought process, since my thought process is in that flow.

I don't recall Ong ever posting a VC, and I don't see what is gained by the incorrect count other than to say my vote was ineffective. If he was pushing on me as wolfy, then I'd think this was intentional.

The fact is that I thought I was placing the deciding vote, and I replied as such. Given daven's VC analysis, it looks like I was right.

***
What do you think wolf-Ong gains by saying that my vote was not the deciding vote at EOD?
Bear in mind that he says this knowing that I keep a spreadsheet and track daily post count and vote counts.

So if he's a wolf, and he's lying, then he KNOWS it's a paper tiger.

[lilrascal]

It's not like you missed a ton because honestly, no one is really doing anything. But interacting in real time is infinitely more valuable than reading ancient history, Daven.

talking about BID's status when absolutely no one has even hinted they want to lynch him is a waste of time, of which you seem to have little.

on re-read i'm still convinced by my case on wuf = post 201 http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...18#post2226118. Seems there was value in reading the mechanics blah first time around after all....

right now the players that seem most wolf on the re-read are wuf/baudib/ong with mmm a dark horse maybe

Daven:

-- your thoughts on Ong/Rascal accusing each other of being a wolf
-- Boog-Gabe wagons
-- your partner

i'm doing both. How do you know you didn't miss some gold if you didn't even read it?


i'm talking about bid likely villager, that's fine.
In the same breath i'm suggesting that discounting mmm as a wolf based on bid = likely villager is a mistake i don't want people to make. Why are you so upset by me pointing this out?!?

re the snide snipe about me seeming to have little time. I don't play werewolf from a phone. I play from a computer. I'm often not at my computer. And that's how i want my life to stay.

no one cares how you play WW, Daven, just that you actually play. You are challenging BigRed for the BigRed award, FFS.

Baud, why the harassment of Daven when he's trying to catch up on the thread and make reads. It would be more beneficial to assess what he's saying and interacting as you say.

I agree that interaction is the best way to get reads, but you're dead wrong that reading the thread "ancient history" is infinitely more valuable. Connections are made especially in vote analysis from the lynches.

This doesn't look like game solvey Baud.

[lilrascal]

I think we're picking nits over flow of thread vs. my thought process, since my thought process is in that flow.

I don't recall Ong ever posting a VC, and I don't see what is gained by the incorrect count other than to say my vote was ineffective. If he was pushing on me as wolfy, then I'd think this was intentional.

The fact is that I thought I was placing the deciding vote, and I replied as such. Given daven's VC analysis, it looks like I was right.

***
What do you think wolf-Ong gains by saying that my vote was not the deciding vote at EOD?
Bear in mind that he says this knowing that I keep a spreadsheet and track daily post count and vote counts.

So if he's a wolf, and he's lying, then he KNOWS it's a paper tiger.

There is a difference between what I posted which were the flow of the posts and what you were thinking. It's not a nit.

You said:

I'm pretty sure the votes are tied 6/6 with the tie going to boog


This is killing me.

lynch gabe

I hope it's the right move.

You gave no rationale for your vote change. I just want to understand why you switched from Boog to Gabe.

[lilrascal]

Mod Corner

Vote Count!
(4, Leads) Wufwugy: Baudib, Monstrman, MadMojomonkey, wufwugy
(4) Bigred: Keybored, Luco, a500lbgorilla, Hoopy
(2) Baudib: Boog, Ongbonga
(1) Ongbonga: Rascal
(1) Boog: Bankitdrew
(1) Luco: Daven

Not Voting: Sometimes, I think I'd like to adopt a little baby. [Pause] So I could abandon it at a mall. I'm sorry, what was the question?

I'm struggling with finding things to add that will help the village and it's not because I'm a wolf, so stfu. I just really appreciate players who post quality>quantity. The best thing I can do is give an updated feel on players:

Wagons:

wuf - I am still convinced he is a V > rando %.
big - I don't understand the wagon. Is it because he's playing like standard br? Not playing? I don't hate the reason because I'm getting annoyed with it. I may very well vote for br based solely on my wuf read + br is useless.
baud - I'm beginning to tone read him as a wolf. I'm not going to offer this tell to the public in case I'm right.
ong - I've still got him in my V category but it's slowly changing because I strongly disagree with what he believes wuf's thought process is.
boog - I'm swaying from W to V. Slowly. I also hate being the only vote on him.

rescind boog
lynch bigred

also, wtf wuf. Self lynch because you're butthurt? I'm so sick of players self-lynching because they feel like no one is listening to them.

rescind bigred

I'm fairly convinced baud is a baddy here.

I'm seeing aggression, opportunism, double-talk reads... all tone stuff, but I think it's enough to vote.

lynch baudib

Hey lover

lynch baudib

I think this is where we're at:

Unofficial Vote Count!
(5) Baudib: Boog, Ongbonga, MadMojomonkey, Bankitdrew
(4) Wufwugy: Baudib, Monstrman, wufwugy
(4) Bigred: Keybored, Luco, a500lbgorilla, Hoopy
(1) Ongbonga: Rascal
(1) Luco: Daven

Not Voting: Bigred

[MadMojoMonkey]

You gave no rationale for your vote change. I just want to understand why you switched from Boog to Gabe.

How about this:

Tie breaker goes to boog... I can't believe I'm considering voting for gabe after I just posted that.

It's a vote for rong, not gabe, just to be clear. I think gabe is too strong to kill on D1... but so's a lot of people here.
I could be wrong about the anti-spew... but the 2pac?

Does a comfortable person or a distraught person post lyrics?
Comfortable

What's the vibe in those lyrics?
Can I trust my partner? Do I have the strength to kill myself for the win?

I struggle to see a wolf latching onto that... am I totally off?

And this:

If the final vote was 7-5
And my vote was the last vote-action
Then it was 6-6 before my switch.
If it was 6-6, the tie would def go to boog.

The wagons were exactly equal with (from my POV) 1 wolf, 1 ? and the rest V's.
That is counting me as a V on boog before my vote switch.

So my switch put me voting with 1 more perceived V, and I thought rong was the wolfiest of D1.
The fact that the reasons for my vote went against the grain of everyone else on that wagon should have kept me off of it, in retrospect.

***
It was my decision, and ultimately it was based on my perceptions.
I was influenced to reconsider my vote by my what ong (I perceive as V) was posting and daven's (also V) encouragement of me to follow my gut and vote for the wolfiest player - which is what I had been saying is the correct play, and I stand by that method, even though I was wrong about rong.

***
ong looking very V with his open on D2. He has def. drawn a line in the sand, and I'm reading that as super villagery.
He's pulled his vote from himself, and rascal hasn't posted anything to defend ong's opening accusaions... so that could be a development, or it could be that ong is getting more action from his vote on baud right now.

[lilrascal]

The first post was made just before your vote and talking about lyrics. Making a read from someone posting or not posting lyrics or pics or charts is role neutral and not making a true read, but more like trying to force a read on someone to support why you voted them.

The second post is much better, but it was made after the reveal so it doesn't mean as much, especially when you're saying there that you voted because of Daven and Ong.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Really? I thought I said this:
"It's a vote for rong, not gabe, just to be clear."
and this:
"It was my decision, and ultimately it was based on my perceptions."

No one but gabe thought I had anything but hot air with the lyrics read. However, in retrospect, it was correct. So was my read on gabe's anti-spew, which I also caught heat for. In retrospect, they were good reads. It looks like unreadable gabe has some leaks after all.

However, I said he was a V, then voted for him. Then said I had faith in him, but not his partner.

I feel like you are either grasping at straws or just need to reread the thread.

[lilrascal]

I see players post pics, lyrics and charts all the time. It's not a read IMO.

However, I did misread your vote being essentially for Rong rather than Gabe.

Why the vote on Rong? I had him as a villa while I thought Gabe was wolfy.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I think this is where we're at:

Unofficial Vote Count!
(5) Baudib: Boog, Ongbonga, MadMojomonkey, Bankitdrew
(4) Wufwugy: Baudib, Monstrman, wufwugy
(4) Bigred: Keybored, Luco, a500lbgorilla, Hoopy
(1) Ongbonga: Rascal
(1) Luco: Daven

Not Voting: Bigred

(4) baud
(3) wuf

[BankItDrew]

I assume bigred has the tie break lead

[lilrascal]

Updated

Unofficial Vote Count!
(4) Bigred: Keybored, Luco, a500lbgorilla, Hoopy
(4) Baudib: Boog, Ongbonga, MadMojomonkey, Bankitdrew
(3) Wufwugy: Baudib, Monstrman, wufwugy
(1) Ongbonga: Rascal
(1) Luco: Daven

Not Voting: Bigred

I think Bigred has the tiebreaker over Baud here, but I haven't had time to go back all the way to check.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I see players post pics, lyrics and charts all the time. It's not a read IMO.

However, I did misread your vote being essentially for Rong rather than Gabe.

Why the vote on Rong? I had him as a villa while I thought Gabe was wolfy.

Are you seriously just going to retrace D1 backwards with me?

RTFT.

I've still no real idea who to lynch. I kinda wanna lynch bid, I don't see why people think he seems villagery. Every time I read the thread I change my mind on people, which means I'm not getting clear feelings about anybody. If anything the more posts I read from anyone the more they stick in my mind and the more I think they could be a wolf.

Luco seemed weird, didn't really get his comments to/about mmm.

This entire first paragraph is trite - banal even. Noob level analysis of every-game D1 activities.


Paging Mr. Ronk ... Paging Mr. Ronk
Mr. Ronk, please come to the customer service desk for your complimentary W-points.

I'm suddenly not feeling my W read on boog so much.

I don't love my vote on wuf. I like it some, but not nearly as much as my vote on ong last game.
Both ong and wuf pride themselves on their ability to talk their way out of lynch.

I *sigh* believe that the fear wuf revealed late yesterday was authentic, and it explains his frantic insistence on trying to bully everyone into revealing as self-preservation (not V-cred in itself, but it makes that ridiculous push of his make sense from a V perspective).

rescind wuf

lynch baudib

or ronk (maybe luco)

Rascal risking his V-points by asking other people to tell him what to think about the game.

You can slide back to neutral.

***
My vote on baud is going nowhere. (I still think baud has yet to show any Village spirit.)

I'm not voting gabe today. I could get on a rong wagon, though. :/

I can't bring myself to vote wuf. I'm wary of wuf talking his way out of lynch, but I believe he's given me enough to lean V.
Hoopy, on the other hand... IDK.

The other main wagon is boog, who I have as neutral, and not a V-lean.
I have slight V-lean on monstrman, and it's weak.

I can lynch boog
but I'd prefer to lynch from baud, rong, luco

[MadMojoMonkey]

The only wagon with baud or rong or luco at EOD was the gabe/rong wagon.

[OngBonga]

lilrascal is not really behaving like a wolf in the shit.

[lilrascal]

Mod Corner

Vote Count at Deadline
(7) Gabe : Ongobonga , Baudib, Boog, Lilrascal , Wufwugy, Daven, madmojomonkey
(5) Boog : BID, Gabe, Rong, Hoopy, Rilla
(2) Wufwugy : Keybored, Luco
(1) Baudib : Monstrman

Double Checking Vote Count Now.

The only wagon with baud or rong or luco at EOD was the gabe/rong wagon.

This is wrong. Baud was on Gabe, and Luco was on Wuf. I don't know why you'd include Rong in there, but he was on Boog.

[OngBonga]

I think I was wrong, and basically spazzed out. Good job that's not difficult to believe.

I don't think I'm wrong about baudib though. Check out the muliple times he says there's a high % chance of wolf between us, even though he thinks we're both villagers to varying degrees. His position on us doesn't add up... on the one hand, we're villagers, on the other we need to go. Baudib has been doing his best to maintain suspicion on us as a pair, while refusing to actually commit to a balls out wolf read on either of us individually.

baudib is wolf as fuck. lilrascal, I think I was wrong. I'm not saying sorry for spazzing though until I KNOW I was wrong!

[MadMojoMonkey]

This is wrong. Baud was on Gabe, and Luco was on Wuf. I don't know why you'd include Rong in there, but he was on Boog.

I mean that of the 3 people I wanted to vote for, only one of them was lynchable.

boog/monstr
gabe/rong

I was on boog/monstr and I didn't have either of them as a W-lean.
I shifted to gabe/rong because I had rong as a W-lean. Also, I was voting in line with more people I read as V's by switching my vote.
There was absolutely no point is shifting my vote to baud/rilla at EOD when he (they) had only 1 vote.

[OngBonga]

I feel like I have this solved.

Assuming wolves are all split up, then wolves are in...

rilla/baudib
luco/keyb
wuf/hoopy
bigred/daven

I've cleared rascal because I think his willingness to die is sincere, plus hes still wolf hunting, rather than worrying about the mess I made.
I've cleared boog/monstr based on logic.
I've cleared mojo/drew based on reads.

If I'm wrong about any of my village reads, I'd reassess drew before anyone else.

There's a minimum of four villagers in my top list. Those villagers need to be assessing their partner.

[MadMojoMonkey]

My partner is so ASSessed. I Essed the shit out of his ASS.

(Not talking about chat inb4 BID denies.)

[MadMojoMonkey]

@Ong: I'm not sure about bigred/daven.

They are the lynchbait vote based on low post count, as wolves would obv want to attack people who aren't fighting back.

I get that people want more involvement from bigred, and I do too, but it's bigred. IDK.

What's your read on Daven's posts today?

[baudib]

I think I was wrong, and basically spazzed out. Good job that's not difficult to believe.

I don't think I'm wrong about baudib though. Check out the muliple times he says there's a high % chance of wolf between us, even though he thinks we're both villagers to varying degrees. His position on us doesn't add up... on the one hand, we're villagers, on the other we need to go. Baudib has been doing his best to maintain suspicion on us as a pair, while refusing to actually commit to a balls out wolf read on either of us individually.

baudib is wolf as fuck. lilrascal, I think I was wrong. I'm not saying sorry for spazzing though until I KNOW I was wrong!

Are you really this bad at math? I gave the numbers before. Other than Wuf/Boog, who are pretty much always wolves, and Rilla/BID, who are never wolves, everyone in the game is likely to be a villager, but can still be greater than rand to be wolves.

Take out BID/Rilla and there are 4 wolves in 11 players, so ~ rand to be a wolf is around 36%.

Even if the most likely alignment of Ong/Rascal is V/V, there's a wolf between them a high % of the time.

This is a pretty clever move by Ong if he's a wolf. "Hey my partner's probably a wolf, kill us" -- "Look I'm lock villager, I said my partner's a wolf," -- "oops just kidding, we're villagers."

[baudib]

At least Ong has admitted he's playing bad. Rascal, what's your take on this?

[baudib]

All of you ignoring the purity of the Boog wagon and Wuf's movement from non-wagon to Gabe without considering Boog are highly suspect. I especially expect more from Ong.

[baudib]

I feel like I have this solved.

Assuming wolves are all split up, then wolves are in...

rilla/baudib
luco/keyb
wuf/hoopy
bigred/daven

I've cleared rascal because I think his willingness to die is sincere, plus hes still wolf hunting, rather than worrying about the mess I made.
I've cleared boog/monstr based on logic.
I've cleared mojo/drew based on reads.

If I'm wrong about any of my village reads, I'd reassess drew before anyone else.

There's a minimum of four villagers in my top list. Those villagers need to be assessing their partner.

Did you note that Wuf absolutely refuses to give his assessment of his partner despite admitting that sussing out a wolf partner would be pro-village?

[OngBonga]

@Ong: I'm not sure about bigred/daven.

They are the lynchbait vote based on low post count, as wolves would obv want to attack people who aren't fighting back.

I get that people want more involvement from bigred, and I do too, but it's bigred. IDK.

What's your read on Daven's posts today?

daven looks good today, but he can look good as a wolf. bigred is unreadable. I can't see how we can afford to dismiss this as a clean pair.

[baudib]

@Ong: I'm not sure about bigred/daven.

They are the lynchbait vote based on low post count, as wolves would obv want to attack people who aren't fighting back.

I get that people want more involvement from bigred, and I do too, but it's bigred. IDK.

What's your read on Daven's posts today?

So in your own words, wolves want to attack Daven/BigRed yet you are voting for the person in the thread who has been most vocal about trying to get people off Daven/BigRed? Do you ever stop to consider the inconsistency of what you're doing?

[OngBonga]

Did you note that Wuf absolutely refuses to give his assessment of his partner despite admitting that sussing out a wolf partner would be pro-village?

Yeah and I also happen to think wuf is a wolf.

[baudib]

daven looks good today, but he can look good as a wolf. bigred is unreadable. I can't see how we can afford to dismiss this as a clean pair.

This is lazy and you've given reads on BigRed in the past.

[baudib]

Yeah and I also happen to think wuf is a wolf.

At last common ground. Vote for Wuf then or else you'll be making n00b WW 101 mistake.

[OngBonga]

This is lazy and you've given reads on BigRed in the past.

I don't think I've ever had a serious wolf read on bigred, like ever. I wouldn't know what to look for. Maybe if he posted dogs.

[OngBonga]

At last common ground. Vote for Wuf then or else you'll be making n00b WW 101 mistake.

What's that, you, my strongest wolf read, are asking me to vote in line with you?

Two words, three F's.

[MadMojoMonkey]

So in your own words, wolves want to attack Daven/BigRed yet you are voting for the person in the thread who has been most vocal about trying to get people off Daven/BigRed? Do you ever stop to consider the inconsistency of what you're doing?

Yes.

If you only knew.

[baudib]

What's that, you, my strongest wolf read, are asking me to vote in line with you?

Two words, three F's.

Player A thinks Player C is a wolf
Player B thinks Player C is a wolf
Player A thinks Player B is a wolf

this is the dumbest thing you can do in WW

[OngBonga]

The dumbest thing I can do in ww, imo, is to willingly allow a wolf to influence my decision.

[baudib]

it should be

Player A thinks Player C is a wolf
Player B thinks Player C is a wolf
Player A votes for Player B

[OngBonga]

Do you want us to lynch wuf first so you can ask for village cred for bussing him? Is that what you're trying to do here baudib?

[MadMojoMonkey]

The dumbest thing I can do in ww, imo, is to willingly allow a wolf to influence my decision.

I'd sign that.

[baudib]

No, I want you to lynch Wuf cuz he's a wolf and if you lynch me and Rilla we're gonna lose.

[OngBonga]

Don't lynch me or we'll lose.

Really baudib.

You're stooping to don't lynch me or we lose.

[baudib]

Ong, if you're a villager and me and Rilla buy it then good luck with the rest of this crew. You've got MMM who says wolves do one thing and then votes for the guy specifically not doing that thing, and Luco who is unengaged and uninterested. At least you've got Daven, who should be up to speed about Day 2 events by Wednesday or Thursday.

glgl

[baudib]

Don't lynch me or we'll lose.

Really baudib.

You're stooping to don't lynch me or we lose.

yes because it's true. I've been as open and involved as I possibly can be and you think I'm possibly still a wolf somehow. This is easily the worst game you've ever played.

[MadMojoMonkey]

No, I want you to lynch Wuf cuz he's a wolf and if you lynch me and Rilla we're gonna lose.

Village can't lose with less than 4 V-V mislynches.

Baud is seriously fear mongering with the whole "I'm a V and if you lynch me we lose."

Not that I believe he's a V. Even in the off chance baud/rilla is V/V, then that's it's hardly a "we lose."

It'll suck, but it will be far from over.

[baudib]

Village can't lose with less than 4 V-V mislynches.

Baud is seriously fear mongering with the whole "I'm a V and if you lynch me we lose."

Not that I believe he's a V. Even in the off chance baud/rilla is V/V, then that's it's hardly a "we lose."

It'll suck, but it will be far from over.

It'll be over. Zero chance you get the order right when this LDFO lynch is Wuf or Boog today and you do something else. I'll give Wuf enough credit for having the balls to figure out a play to get through another day and Ong is going to dominate the thread with his "omg i'm a villager so Boog is a villager for raisins" line.

[BankItDrew]

I don't think I've ever had a serious wolf read on bigred, like ever. I wouldn't know what to look for. Maybe if he posted dogs.

I lol'd irl hard

[MadMojoMonkey]

They are the lynchbait vote based on low post count, as wolves would obv want to attack people who aren't fighting back.

Just because "wolves would want XYZ" broadly, that doesn't mean or even imply that "all wolves will do XYZ."

It just means that doing XYZ is easy, and wolfy.
It would be stupid for all wolves to always do XYZ, because that's obviously wolfy.
So at least 1 wolf will not do XYZ, and may even howl about how bad XYZ is for cred.

It's not a hard-and-fast rule that all wolves will attack lynchbait.