Varchertine's Werewolf Game Thread

[Keybored]

After a quick read, here's where I stand atm (with my tryhard colors):

Villas:
Rong
Key
Ong
Baud
Monstr
Boog
Daven

Neutrals:
Rilla
BID

Meh:
Hoopy
Bigred
MMM

Wolves:
Gabe
Wuf
Luco

If Rascal's a wolf, he puts one fellow wolf in each category above.

[Keybored]

^^^ lumping Neutrals and Meh as one category.

[Keybored]

LilRascal...if your partner fails to vote today, you two will be a hard target tomorrow.

[gabe]

Gabe had no interest in Boog until he became a viable wagon himself. AFAICT, it's Boog had some "wolfy tone" posts and said "it seems."

i'm serious

you can question my village skills all you want but i have the record to back up these types of reads

also heres a link to a post where luco says how a post i made was villagery and MMM (maybe someone else too?) also realized it http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...61#post2226161

you are tunneling too hard. the more fishy accusations against me, i will naturally say more things you can pick apart and use against me. im going to engage tunnelers less starting now

[MadMojoMonkey]

Rascal risking his V-points by asking other people to tell him what to think about the game.

You can slide back to neutral.

***
My vote on baud is going nowhere. (I still think baud has yet to show any Village spirit.)

I'm not voting gabe today. I could get on a rong wagon, though. :/

I can't bring myself to vote wuf. I'm wary of wuf talking his way out of lynch, but I believe he's given me enough to lean V.
Hoopy, on the other hand... IDK.

The other main wagon is boog, who I have as neutral, and not a V-lean.
I have slight V-lean on monstrman, and it's weak.

I can lynch boog
but I'd prefer to lynch from baud, rong, luco

[lilrascal]

I'll be fairly surprised to see Rilla or BID turn up wolf. The rest of your list seems decentish, rascal, but you could be a wolf here. Especially with Daven.

Why is Daven a villager?

You may be right on Rilla and BID, I don't have a lean either way on them.

Based on my quick read, I don't remember a lot from Daven IRL today, but the little he did post seemed OK, and I had him in my villa pile already.

I could be a wolf and so could you. I know I'm not and I don't think you are atm.

[lilrascal]

LilRascal...if your partner fails to vote today, you two will be a hard target tomorrow.

Who says my partner hasn't already voted?

[gabe]

I'm not voting gabe today. I could get on a rong wagon, though. :/

they are the same wagon......

[wufwugy]

rascal - gabe
rilla - boog
hoopy - boog
luco - wuf
rong - boog
gabe - baud
boog - gabe
key - wuf
baud - gabe
mmm - baud
ong - gabe
bid - boog
wuf - mmm
monstr - baud
daven - wuf

gabe - 4
boog - 4 (leads)
wuf - 3
baud - 3
mmm - 1

[lilrascal]

Rascal risking his V-points by asking other people to tell him what to think about the game.

You can slide back to neutral.

***
My vote on baud is going nowhere. (I still think baud has yet to show any Village spirit.)

I'm not voting gabe today. I could get on a rong wagon, though. :/

I can't bring myself to vote wuf. I'm wary of wuf talking his way out of lynch, but I believe he's given me enough to lean V.
Hoopy, on the other hand... IDK.

The other main wagon is boog, who I have as neutral, and not a V-lean.
I have slight V-lean on monstrman, and it's weak.

I can lynch boog
but I'd prefer to lynch from baud, rong, luco

Me asking for other people's thoughts is how I learned to play this game. Interaction with others is how I find wolves. That's why you'll always see me trying to interact with others. Their reaction to my posts and others is what I need to make my reads.

I'm more of a tone reader than a mechanics guy.

[wufwugy]

i have no opinion. i was able to skim while waiting for my tutor, but that hardly does anything. im a little less pissed off today than i was yesterday, but also a lot more tired

[MadMojoMonkey]

I don't recall a strong case against boog. My own case stems from the fact that last game on D1, he came out hard and aggressive against key, and... I think someone else after that? ... whatever... His posts were a flurry of questions and incredulity.

Here, I see only his post 199 that reads like that... which he posts after I said gabe's read on boog was odd in that gabe said bood asked a question, whereas I expect boog to ask tons of questions.

[MadMojoMonkey]

they are the same wagon......

hense the

:/

[lilrascal]

i have no opinion. i was able to skim while waiting for my tutor, but that hardly does anything. im a little less pissed off today than i was yesterday, but also a lot more tired

If you have no opinion, then why are you voting MMM?

[wufwugy]

make that 5 for boog

[baudib]

you can question my village skills all you want but i have the record to back up these types of reads

also heres a link to a post where luco says how a post i made was villagery and MMM (maybe someone else too?) also realized it http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...61#post2226161

you are tunneling too hard. the more fishy accusations against me, i will naturally say more things you can pick apart and use against me. im going to engage tunnelers less starting now

and your case on me is based on what?

do you think there is a villager out of Boog/Daven/Luco?

[wufwugy]

If you have no opinion, then why are you voting MMM?

because i have an opinion on him, just not on any of the further developments. he's clearly not getting lynched today

[baudib]

I'm not gonna holler and scream against the Boog lynch, it's better than lynching Wuf IMO.

[lilrascal]

because i have an opinion on him, just not on any of the further developments. he's clearly not getting lynched today

I'm curious about why you think MMM is a wolf. I have him leaning that way, but not enough to vote him.

[MadMojoMonkey]

@rascal: Please share your thoughts. If you think I'm wolfy, then don't sit on it.

Soft pushes are not good for the village.

[baudib]

The real problem with Gabe here is that his defense is something along the lines of "well I wouldn't be so stupid to draw suspicion this early after I played a great wolf game last game," when he made inarguably the most wolfy open of the game and it basically went unnoticed for 2 days until I pointed it out again.

He also backed off that attack on Ong as it was getting nowhere and now it's all about a really really weak case on Boog (or a non-existent case on me) based on his history. Which is all fine and good except that Gabe's history indicates nothing to make us believe that he is anything but a wolf when he lives past day 2 and no mechanical grasp of winning village play.

this isn't to knock Gabe but the fact is he just hasn't done it. Wuf has won a dozen more end games.

kudos if Boog flips wolf but I hope everyone takes a good hard look at Gabe regardless of the flip (remember Gabe bussing Ong really hard last game).

[baudib]

Monstr not showing here probably means he flips wolf an acceptable % of time actually.

[lilrascal]

@rascal: Please share your thoughts. If you think I'm wolfy, then don't sit on it.

Soft pushes are not good for the village.

As I posted, I had you as meh, so a slight wolf lean, but not in my wolf category.

I just have a different style than what your used to and reading people's reactions to my reads helps me refine them.

When I first started playing ww, I locked in on my reads and didn't adjust and essentially had tunnel vision. Since then, I've learned to re-assess my reads.

[MadMojoMonkey]

@baud: The case against you is that you claim to be low participation, then get all butthurt when called out on it. And you're still among the top posters. It doesn't add up.

I agree with you on BID and rilla, and on boog vs. wuf, but these are easy things to say without deep analysis of the game.

I know that you are capable of making solid reads and rocking my POV with good observations, and so far what I've gotten from you has been lackluster.

I'm not saying it's a hard lean, but it's plenty enough for a D1 lynch.

[lilrascal]

I'm not gonna holler and scream against the Boog lynch, it's better than lynching Wuf IMO.

The real problem with Gabe here is that his defense is something along the lines of "well I wouldn't be so stupid to draw suspicion this early after I played a great wolf game last game," when he made inarguably the most wolfy open of the game and it basically went unnoticed for 2 days until I pointed it out again.

He also backed off that attack on Ong as it was getting nowhere and now it's all about a really really weak case on Boog (or a non-existent case on me) based on his history. Which is all fine and good except that Gabe's history indicates nothing to make us believe that he is anything but a wolf when he lives past day 2 and no mechanical grasp of winning village play.

this isn't to knock Gabe but the fact is he just hasn't done it. Wuf has won a dozen more end games.

kudos if Boog flips wolf but I hope everyone takes a good hard look at Gabe regardless of the flip (remember Gabe bussing Ong really hard last game).

Baud, I'm not liking your stance here. Essentially trying to lay the blame on others if the one you vote for is villa.

[baudib]

Are all of you incapable of reading? I'm not blaming anyone.

If Gabe flips V then have at me, I'm owning it.

[baudib]

@baud: The case against you is that you claim to be low participation, then get all butthurt when called out on it. And you're still among the top posters. It doesn't add up.

I agree with you on BID and rilla, and on boog vs. wuf, but these are easy things to say without deep analysis of the game.

I know that you are capable of making solid reads and rocking my POV with good observations, and so far what I've gotten from you has been lackluster.

I'm not saying it's a hard lean, but it's plenty enough for a D1 lynch.

so am I not participating or am I a top poster, what exactly is the complaint? your whole WW existence has been lackluster.

[baudib]

@baud: The case against you is that you claim to be low participation, then get all butthurt when called out on it. And you're still among the top posters. It doesn't add up.

I agree with you on BID and rilla, and on boog vs. wuf, but these are easy things to say without deep analysis of the game.

I know that you are capable of making solid reads and rocking my POV with good observations, and so far what I've gotten from you has been lackluster.

I'm not saying it's a hard lean, but it's plenty enough for a D1 lynch.

you actually know nothing of the sort, MMM, when have we ever been villagers together???????

[lilrascal]

Now, this is the Baud I'm familiar with.

Still not sure if you're wolf or villa though.

[gabe]

Are all of you incapable of reading? I'm not blaming anyone.

If Gabe flips V then have at me, I'm owning it.

you will be haved at

[baudib]

you will be haved at

TWSS

[lilrascal]

TWSS

Son, what does TWSS mean?

[wufwugy]

I'm curious about why you think MMM is a wolf. I have him leaning that way, but not enough to vote him.

tbh im probably wrong about him. i learned a long ass time ago that d1 reads are worth shit. i do think i noticed several weird things he did with regard to me (changing his opinion without changing his vote, hating a policy that is super pro-v), but i also think it could be his naive optimism about ww that gets him to think that d1 is a day for mega productivity. granted, about a third of the games he has played in resulted in a wolf being lynched d1, so he could have gotten the wrong impression. it should be noted that both of those d1 dead wolves did not come as a result of villager logic, but as a result of coincidence

[MadMojoMonkey]

so am I not participating or am I a top poster, what exactly is the complaint? your whole WW existence has been lackluster.

Did I miss a memo that said, whatever MMM says, just mischaracterize it and throw it back at him as though he said something else?

Your early game claim of low activity is not evidenced by your actual activity.

An early game claim of low activity is easily a low-level wolf hedge. Especially when it looks like it was a ruse.

That's what doesn't add up, which I said in the first place.

[MadMojoMonkey]

you actually know nothing of the sort, MMM, when have we ever been villagers together???????

You might have me there... let me rephrase.

I have respect for you in WW, and so far, what you've done hasn't seemed all that beneficial to cornering W's. I'm used to you having a lot of banter, but I also expect a fair dose of hunting.

[MadMojoMonkey]

you will be haved at

[lilrascal]

tbh im probably wrong about him. i learned a long ass time ago that d1 reads are worth shit. i do think i noticed several weird things he did with regard to me (changing his opinion without changing his vote, hating a policy that is super pro-v), but i also think it could be his naive optimism about ww that gets him to think that d1 is a day for mega productivity. granted, about a third of the games he has played in resulted in a wolf being lynched d1, so he could have gotten the wrong impression. it should be noted that both of those d1 dead wolves did not come as a result of villager logic, but as a result of coincidence

I agree with you for the most part on D1 reads. Where I disagree is people's reaction to pressure. Villas tend to react differently than wolves.

As far as changing opinion without changing a vote. That's not role indicative unless it's near EOD imo.

[baudib]

So basically MMM and a whole bunch of people expect certain things from me when they really have nothing to base any expectations on. that's good to know.


I'm guessing that Boog is a villager but we may get bailed out if Monstr flips wolf, which I think he will a decent amount of time. I don't think Monstr's posting has been wolfy, but his low activity and no-show near EOD is somewhat wolfy for him.

[MadMojoMonkey]

tbh im probably wrong about him. i learned a long ass time ago that d1 reads are worth shit. i do think i noticed several weird things he did with regard to me (changing his opinion without changing his vote, hating a policy that is super pro-v), but i also think it could be his naive optimism about ww that gets him to think that d1 is a day for mega productivity. granted, about a third of the games he has played in resulted in a wolf being lynched d1, so he could have gotten the wrong impression. it should be noted that both of those d1 dead wolves did not come as a result of villager logic, but as a result of coincidence

That never happened, and it has been explained in-thread multiple times.

I changed my opinion on whether I agreed with what you were saying about a mechanics issue. I didn't change my opinion about whether your focus was wolfy. The fact that you're still on about misrepresenting that conversation worries me.

The ONLY reason my vote has moved off of you is because I think your ranting yesterday was motivated by fear, which I interpret as a villagery response to leading in votes.

[OngBonga]

I can't wait until rilla tells us he thinks baudib is a wolf.

[lilrascal]

So basically MMM and a whole bunch of people expect certain things from me when they really have nothing to base any expectations on. that's good to know.


I'm guessing that Boog is a villager but we may get bailed out if Monstr flips wolf, which I think he will a decent amount of time. I don't think Monstr's posting has been wolfy, but his low activity and no-show near EOD is somewhat wolfy for him.

You have a good point on monstr. It is odd that he's not around for EOD.

[baudib]

I can't wait until rilla tells us he thinks baudib is a wolf.

rilla-baud chat is not exactly warm and fuzzy

[lilrascal]

rilla-baud chat is not exactly warm and fuzzy

LOL.

So, what is your read on rilla?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Careful, baud. Don't say anything about private chat that could be denied by your partner.

[baudib]

I don't think Rilla is good enough a wolf to be this active and engaged. Or rather, he doesn't like wolfing enough to put forth this much effort this early.

[lilrascal]

rilla-baud chat is not exactly warm and fuzzy

Careful, baud. Don't say anything about private chat that could be denied by your partner.

I'm waiting for rilla to say it was warm and fuzzy.

[BooG690]

Commuting back home. Writing on the phone. Hard to catch up on everything though it looks like my bandwagon is based on nothing. Gabe is obvious manipulating wolf. He needs to go tomorrow. Rilla afterwards.

[daven]

BAUDIB-RILLA
BID-MMM
GABE-RONG
HOOPY-WUF
MONSTR-BOOG

interesting that monstr has his vote on a wagon that isn't going anywhere while his partner is on the block...

looks like we're not lynching wuf. That's shit. If it comes down to gabe vs boog i feel like i should get my vote to count for something. Or everyone should just come lynch wuf with me. Time for a read-through, how much time do we have left?

[MadMojoMonkey]

I know how much you guys love a tryhard.
This is current through post #722




It's a little hard to read w/ 16 players, but it shows the VC patterns for vote leaders a bit.

[MadMojoMonkey]

how much time do we have left?

~ 1 hour

[Keybored]

Sorry, BooG. Wish it was different.

[lilrascal]

I know how much you guys love a tryhard.
This is current through post #722




It's a little hard to read w/ 16 players, but it shows the VC patterns for vote leaders a bit.

I was about to ask for a vote count when I saw you post this.

I still need a vote count. I'm not sure how to read this.

[lilrascal]

Based on the chart, I think the current wagons are Boog with 6 votes and Gabe with 4.

If I'm reading that right.

[OngBonga]

Pretty chart.

I'm lurking instead of sleeping.

[daven]

I'm not voting gabe today. I could get on a rong wagon, though. :/

and

I can't bring myself to vote wuf. I'm wary of wuf talking his way out of lynch, but I believe he's given me enough to lean V.
Hoopy, on the other hand... IDK.

The other main wagon is boog, who I have as neutral, and not a V-lean.
I have slight V-lean on monstrman, and it's weak.

um, this stands out a lot to me on quick skim. Please explain how a rong wagon isn't the same as a gabe wagon. I'd be keen for people to vote with "lynch x & y" when partnerships are outed cos that's effectively what we're doing for those players.. basically the day has come down to wuf/hoopy vs gabe/rong vs boog/monstr
to me the wuf/hoopy combo is most likely to eliminate a wolf. Rong was pretty inactive last game, but monstr has been inactive this game; i'm still not sold on either of gabe/boog being a wolf. I think i'm going to vote based on which of rong/monstr would be the better lynch if i can't get a gabe/boog preference

I can lynch boog
but I'd prefer to lynch from baud, rong, luco

you can see how this is inconsistent with your player pool reads right?

[OngBonga]

I don't think the two wagons are v/v and v/v, otherwise you'd think the wolves would prefer to have gabe/dan in the lead.

[OngBonga]

cmon someone grow a pair of bollocks and switch. The reason boog/monstr are leading the votes ahead of gabe/rong is because there's a wolf between gabe/rong.

[daven]

I don't think the two wagons are v/v and v/v, otherwise you'd think the wolves would prefer to have gabe/dan in the lead.

i'm trying to figure out what i should infer from this! does it mean that there is more likely a wolf in gabe/dan or more likely a wolf in boog/monstr?

what is jumping out to me is that monstr is very unlikely wolf given that his vote is on a non-wagon when he and his partner are a leading wagon. Is that too level 0 though?

[wufwugy]

i am unconvinced that any of the leading wagons are wolves because they seemed to just spring out of nowhere. but mmm is on boog and he's my most likely wolf. it could be that he's trying to protect gabe.

i dont like some other players on the boog wagon, but i'm keeping who and why to myself for now

gabe has a wolfy villager style, but i dont think he ever wakes up all of a sudden when he's villager and getting lots of heat, which he has done this game

lynch gabe

[MadMojoMonkey]

@daven: I'm expressing how hard it is for me to make a choice given the pairings.
I have 1 read on one person and a different read on the other. It's a mind-brain fuck.

It's not inconsistent. I'm fucking confused. OK, it displays inconsistencies in the pairings, but not in individual reads... because that's where I'm


I don't agree that we should vote for the pair, but we're forced into it, so I accept that if I want to vote rong in this spot, then I have to vote gabe. BUT THAT'S SHIT because I am forced to place my vote on someone who I think is a V.

With all the attention I'm getting, if I switch back to wuf it's all, "Ooooooo look at MMM being all crazy-like."
I think wuf's a slight-V, and I got zilch on Hoopy (usual for D1, and I've given up hope of asking).

So among all my group reads, it's wuf/hoopy as distracting V + unknown.

But then I am voting for a V with whom I've had it out to the point of convincing myself he's a V...

[daven]

cmon someone grow a pair of bollocks and switch. The reason boog/monstr are leading the votes ahead of gabe/rong is because there's a wolf between gabe/rong.

simultaneous post. I'm going with it.
Rescind Wuf (but fuck it we're lynching him tomorrow)
Lynch Gabe (which is obviously equivalent to a lynch vote for Rong = when one of gabe/rong flips wolf we go after mmm tomorrow cos he seems to be claiming that he wants rong lynched and would vote rong if he was a viable wagon but.... dunno what the but is really...)

[wufwugy]

rascal - gabe
rilla - boog
hoopy - boog
luco - wuf
rong - boog
gabe - baud
boog - gabe
key - wuf
baud - gabe
ong - gabe
bid - boog
monstr - baud
daven - wuf
mmm- boog
wuf - gabe

gabe - 5
boog - 5 (leads)
wuf - 2
baud - 3

[MadMojoMonkey]

I have openly said I'm taking the risk of protecting gabe today.

[OngBonga]

YES

[daven]

@daven: I'm expressing how hard it is for me to make a choice given the pairings.
I have 1 read on one person and a different read on the other. It's a mind-brain fuck.

agree completely. Go with getting the wolfiest player lynched. In a normal game that's the aim, and in a normal game we lose a villager overnight anyway.

I don't agree that we should vote for the pair, but we're forced into it, so I accept that if I want to vote rong in this spot, then I have to vote gabe. BUT THAT'S SHIT because I am forced to place my vote on someone who I think is a V.

i'm in a spot where i'm pretty sure wuf is a wolf, and now his vote switch has me questioning my vote switch ffs. But i'm happy to lose rong cos of last game and an expectation that he'll be lower involvement when it matters. I'm meh neutral on gabe. boog, i dunno, not getting far on the readthrough (reading backwards, probably a mistake? seems a lot of people don't really think he's wolf though, or have weird rationale?), monstr - no idea. Swings at least in part on whether monstr would afk with a worthless vote when he's a close wagon to the lynch as a wolf? no idea. who has reads on him better than we do? they care to chime in? all those question marks - wasn't that gabe's wolf read or something, lol at that as a read worth lynching on cos otherwise we should be lynching me for this post

[OngBonga]

If they're all villagers, gabe/rong is fistpump mislynch. boog/monstr is always lynchable because boog. Yeah the wolves would make more effort to get gabe/rong lynched. Granted, I could be that effort, but I'm thinking wolves would have made more of an effort earlier on. This is late stuff.

If there's a wolf between boog/monstr, why aren't they here trying to save their asses? Why aren't the other wolves trying to secure a fistpump mislynch?

It's possible there's a wolf in both pairs, in which case boog/monstr is probably the better one to lose. But that's optimistic. I think there's a very good chance of a wolf in gabe/rong, and an average chance of a wolf between boog/monstr.

[gabe]

baudib, boog, wuf are my 3 targets


tomorrow the game is going to be a real puzzle. there will be a best answer on what to do based on killing different pairs. tomorrow together we will come up with the best strategy, and anyone who disputes it will be shown as non village. there will be no escaping for wolves, they will have to follow the solution, or die even faster. i hope to be around tomorrow

[gabe]

Yeah the wolves would make more effort to get gabe/rong lynched.

ya if we're not wolves then the wolves sure are voting for us !

[OngBonga]

Why, if you're a villager, aren't you questioning my motive?

[daven]

baudib, boog, wuf are my 3 targets

tomorrow the game is going to be a real puzzle. there will be a best answer on what to do based on killing different pairs.

what do you think of rong? I haven't been able to see the boog read, and i find monstr's absence + the location of his vote to be more likely monstr = villa than wolf. I just wish there was time to get wuf lynched still, seems that ship has sailed though.

I agree with the flip tonight potentially providing us with enough info for at least a partial solution to be found tomorrow.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Tie breaker goes to boog... I can't believe I'm considering voting for gabe after I just posted that.

It's a vote for rong, not gabe, just to be clear. I think gabe is too strong to kill on D1... but so's a lot of people here.
I could be wrong about the anti-spew... but the 2pac?

Does a comfortable person or a distraught person post lyrics?
Comfortable

What's the vibe in those lyrics?
Can I trust my partner? Do I have the strength to kill myself for the win?

I struggle to see a wolf latching onto that... am I totally off?

[gabe]

no MMM, you are not off. it's completely right. just like IRL when people sing the lyrics so songs, those are the lyrics the person relates to. often time different people are selective of different lyrics of the same song. people dont sing lyrics of things that they dont also think about (in some way). i stacked a guy once using that read but thats a story for a different forum

[OngBonga]

I think daven's vote was unaccounted for in wuf's count... gabe is leading right now.

cmon mojo, tupac lyrics = villager points?

[gabe]

obviously we cant set the precedent "post song lyrics and be cleared" but it applies in this case

[OngBonga]

Is gabe actually going to get lynched on d1 in a game where noms don't happen? So sick.