Varchertine's Werewolf Game Thread

[rong]

a500lbgorilla - Villrar
Baudib – MIA, null maybe slight vill
LilRascal – finally posting some reads. Has me and rillz0r leaning W because we’re abrasive? Surface level reading, leaning W
Keybored – Kinda floating D1, null so far
Ongbonga – Sounds pretty villrar so far
Gabe – still leaning v to me
BID - villrar
MMM - villrar
Wufwugy - villrar
Hoopy – lurking, leaning w
Rong – I think villrar
Boog – his last post is his least wolfy so far. Still, leaning W
Monstrman – leaning V
Bigred – MIA, null
Daven - wolfy

I mentioned it as soon as it happened.

no one else was on Gabe.

I know you don't do things like read the thread or keep up with things that happen but maybe you could try reading every 10th post or so.

Bull shit! You mentioned the slip, nothing more. No mention of this logic you claim.

[rong]

What the duck is with this multi quote shit.

[BankItDrew]

BooG690 Post #192, "Wuf, Rilla and BID need to start thinking through this reveal stuff and stop making it seem that anyone who thinks otherwise is suspect."


BID...How can you claim that most players not revealed (at that time) are villagers? What gives you that insight?

Math.

16 players
3 known pairs (6 players)
10 remain
assume 4 are wolves
6 remain
6 is a higher number than 4

[a500lbgorilla]

by "less high" do you mean you want to lynch him.

No. I was high on Boog and Keybored as targets. I am now less so.

[baudib]

Bull shit! You mentioned the slip, nothing more. No mention of this logic you claim.

bullshit on your bullshit. I noted that Ong was the first player to post anything of substance, and you were lynching him for non-reasons. Everyone else glossing over Gabe's slip can be considered suspect if Gabe flips wolf.

[rong]

Well that's not what you just said. Dam it, you're gonna make me go and get a laptop so I can multi quote you.

[Luco]

Gabe's slip is something of a gotcha, in and of itself it ain't much. Out of wuf / boog / gabe he's my preferred lynch though

I'm still on daven though, anyone wanna join me? Nobody else thinks his wuf push feels different this time?

[baudib]

Bull shit! You mentioned the slip, nothing more. No mention of this logic you claim.

bullshit on your bullshit. I noted that Ong was the first player to post anything of substance, and you were lynching him for non-reasons. Everyone else glossing over Gabe's slip can be considered suspect if Gabe flips wolf.

Well that's not what you just said. Dam it, you're gonna make me go and get a laptop so I can multi quote you.

no, god forbid you ever actually put any effort into the game!

[baudib]

No. I was high on Boog and Keybored as targets. I am now less so.

I agree

I'd lynch Luco over both of them atm.

Monstr and Rascal, what are your thoughts on each other?

[gabe]

I don't really see how I slipped

My first post in the thread is what I was thinking at the time

Call it terrible or whatever but it was a real post

rescind and lynch baudib
Because he's the most likely wolf...

His posting style is different, he's trying to talk about his great reads on monstr n rascal (last time he told me he had a good read on monstr, they were both wolves), and finally him saying my tactic was terrible seems overly forceful, which might be the wolfiest bit of evidence

Also I think it was baudib that suggested ong is strong enough to be kept around, which I don't think is true in this line up. Everyone is solid

[gabe]

I don't do shit on day 1. If I'm a wolf, no one cares, if I'm a villager, the wolves make you guys care....

Also I've had some very village posts. One of the people on me recently is a wolf

[a500lbgorilla]

I'm betting this game is pretty frustrating for villagers. You basically have 2 bits of info, your role and who dies with you and that's it.

Certainly less frustrating than the wolf has it - as he already knows every mislynch. There are no surprises, no new info to react to.

I'd bet if you put people into two loose piles - those that have shown frustration or had a heated exchange - and those who have been pretty mellow. I'd bet the wolves fall pretty squarely in the mellow pile.

Gabe's been mellow. Rong's been mellow.

Methinks the wolves are trying to make a strike at me via buadib.

[Keybored]

CRUNCH TIME ...

Bigred & LilRascal have not voted yet. Care to get in on this b4 it's too late?

[a500lbgorilla]

I can understand a gabe lynch, but what I hate about it is the wolves would love it if he's a villager.

Same could be said about rilla, but plenty enough people want him or baudib lynched.

Rescind

Lynch baudib

This is fun.

[gabe]

My reasons for baudib are legit. And we need to kill wolves. I would separate your mind bombs if I could. Promise

[gabe]

I didn't think about this until after the fact but MMM makes a good point about my Tupac posts. I just posted cuz I thought it was funny but after thinking about it, I'd never do that as a wolf

Rilla, like Tupac, needs to ask himself if he can blast himself (via baud)

[OngBonga]

Hey everyone, I only ever make this post you're reading now as villager.

So that's hard proof for you all.

[a500lbgorilla]

LilRascal - seems pretty mellow
Keybored - not mellow
Ongbonga - not mellow
Gabe - pretty mellow dude
BID - Bigred's laziness is starting to get under my skin. - sound mellow? nah
Wufwugy - not mellow
Rong - a mellow dude
Luco - a little un-mellow
Boog - not mellow
Hoppy - pretty mellow
Baudib - rather mellow
Monstrman - very mellow
Bigred - pretty mellow
MMM - hard to say, a little grating maybe a little grated?
Daven - super mellow

Mellow analysis finds the following people not yellow:

MMM, Boog, Luco, Wufwugy, BID, OngBonga, Keybored - villagers the lot of 'em!

[a500lbgorilla]

My reasons for baudib are legit. And we need to kill wolves. I would separate your mind bombs if I could. Promise

Do the math sun. Play the range.

[a500lbgorilla]

Playing with buddy links and going for the highest EV kills as oppose to trying to get that one that you really think is a wolf is like stacking the deck for the village in later days, guys.

Think on it.

[bigred]

CRUNCH TIME ...

Bigred & LilRascal have not voted yet. Care to get in on this b4 it's too late?

I still have a few hours. Of the most vocal. I would prefer to lynch Baudib or Gabe. Did Gabe reveal a partner? I believe it's Rilla/Baudib which makes me stray from wanting to lynch Baudib.

I typically like to look for the lurkers (ironic I KNOW) but this is a pretty active gang.

[a500lbgorilla]

gabe, rong, who ya buddies?

[a500lbgorilla]

I still have a few hours. Of the most vocal. I would prefer to lynch Baudib or Gabe. Did Gabe reveal a partner? I believe it's Rilla/Baudib which makes me stray from wanting to lynch Baudib.

I typically like to look for the lurkers (ironic I KNOW) but this is a pretty active gang.

Baudib's my partner. Gabe's is questionmark.

[bigred]

LilRascal - seems pretty mellow
Keybored - not mellow
Ongbonga - not mellow
Gabe - pretty mellow dude
BID - Bigred's laziness is starting to get under my skin. - sound mellow? nah
Wufwugy - not mellow
Rong - a mellow dude
Luco - a little un-mellow
Boog - not mellow
Hoppy - pretty mellow
Baudib - rather mellow
Monstrman - very mellow
Bigred - pretty mellow
MMM - hard to say, a little grating maybe a little grated?
Daven - super mellow

Mellow analysis finds the following people not yellow:

MMM, Boog, Luco, Wufwugy, BID, OngBonga, Keybored - villagers the lot of 'em!

I'm pretty inline with your list on villagers for now. Save maybe Luco.

[gabe]

Playing with buddy links and going for the highest EV kills as oppose to trying to get that one that you really think is a wolf is like stacking the deck for the village in later days, guys.

Think on it.

Good chance all links are equal

If there are 2 wolf buddies it's pretty hard for them to win

[a500lbgorilla]

Good chance all links are equal

If there are 2 wolf buddies it's pretty hard for them to win

But thankfully you can apply reads. It's just like poker! All hidden cards are equal, but how they act shifts their range!

You ever play poker? You'd love it.

[gabe]

gabe, rong ya buddies

I see you want to know my buddy. Funny how you are already hiding behind your link. I'm not saying this makes you wolfy. But there's an imbalance

[gabe]

Hey everyone, I only ever make this post you're reading now as villager.

So that's hard proof for you all.

LilRascal - seems pretty mellow
Keybored - not mellow
Ongbonga - not mellow
Gabe - pretty mellow dude
BID - Bigred's laziness is starting to get under my skin. - sound mellow? nah
Wufwugy - not mellow
Rong - a mellow dude
Luco - a little un-mellow
Boog - not mellow
Hoppy - pretty mellow
Baudib - rather mellow
Monstrman - very mellow
Bigred - pretty mellow
MMM - hard to say, a little grating maybe a little grated?
Daven - super mellow

Mellow analysis finds the following people not yellow:

MMM, Boog, Luco, Wufwugy, BID, OngBonga, Keybored - villagers the lot of 'em!

Quoted for 2 good posts in a row

[Keybored]

**UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT**

GABE (4) -- Ong, Baudib, Boog, Rilla
BAUD (4) -- Monstr, MMM, Rong, Gabe
WUF (2) -- Daven, Keybored
BOOG (2) -- BID, Hoopy
MMM -- Wuf
Daven -- Luco

Never voted: BigRed & LilRascal

Known Pairings:

BAUDIB-RILLA
BID-MMM
WUF-HOOPY
BOOG-MONSTR

[a500lbgorilla]

I see you want to know my buddy. Funny how you are already hiding behind your link. I'm not saying this makes you wolfy. But there's an imbalance

If anything, I'd hanging by my buddy and you're holding yours in your pocket.

[a500lbgorilla]

**UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT**

GABE (4) -- Ong, Baudib, Boog, Rilla
BAUD (4) -- Monstr, MMM, Rong, Gabe
WUF (2) -- Daven, Keybored
BOOG (2) -- BID, Hoopy
MMM -- Wuf
Daven -- Luco

Never voted: BigRed & LilRascal

Known Pairings:

BAUDIB-RILLA
BID-MMM
WUF-HOOPY
BOOG-MONSTR

Uh oh, gabe! Now's the time when everyone agrees you should out!

[gabe]

Fine

I just did in the other post u quoted

[a500lbgorilla]

Gabe-Rong you say?

[a500lbgorilla]

I can understand a gabe lynch, but what I hate about it is the wolves would love it if he's a villager.

Same could be said about rilla, but plenty enough people want him or baudib lynched.

Rescind

Lynch baudib

So rong just didn't want to lynch himself.

[rong]

Nope. I'll die early, I don't think gabe is wolfy.

[baudib]

MMM, Boog, Luco, Wufwugy, BID, OngBonga, Keybored - villagers the lot of 'em!

think this list has ~1.5 wolves in it.

[baudib]

Nope. I'll die early, I don't think gabe is wolfy.

oh interesting....

[OngBonga]

think this list has ~1.5 wolves in it.

Can I be the half?

[baudib]

Gabe/Rong has to be the lynch.

on the off-chance the mod made W-W pairings it's super hot and crazy +EV.

If wrong, Rong is worthless anyway.

I can see why Gabe wouldn't want to reveal, but why would Rong keep it secret?


on to Day 2.

[a500lbgorilla]

Ho boy

[Hoopy]

rescind boog

rilla is looking very villa right now, seriouslyof everyone playing he has the most disparity between wolf and villager.

Lets out the remaining 3 pairs.

BigRed
LilRascal
daven
luco
ong
monstr

[rong]

Agree Rilla seems villagery, but baudib most certainly does not. If I don't was a wolf I would have just let wuf/hoopy die.

[MadMojoMonkey]

probably because I'm posting at about 1/20th my usual volume and I'm not really intensely interested in WW anymore.

IDGAF = anti-village at best and wolfy at worst.

If you don't want to put in your normal effort, and you're burned out on WW, then ask JKDS to sub you out.
'cause otherwise you're just too wolfy to ignore and rilla seems villa, but dems the casualties of war.

You wanna kill me bro?

if you can't clear baudib, then yes.

Sorry bro.

***
This is what I was worried about. baud gets a pass / free ride by association with a strong villager.
Wolves were going to nom a strong villager anyway.

This game is going to be won by strong V-V pairs being able to clear themselves and their partners.
(This doesn't mean the pair needs to be outed, but POE is going to out the final pairs in no time.)

***
Lynching gabe on D1?
I read something about not doing that in 2015. If only I could remember who it was that started that thread...

Our player base here is smaller than it used to be but everyone is really solid IMO. I can say that now that you guys let me live to Day 5 as a wolf.

Gabe has gotten to an end game only once, in Gold Rush, when the wolves roflstomped the village.

Let's not just autonom him every night. Dude deserves a chance to show his skills in late-game situations.

Make this a petition and try to uphold it as a wolf next year

signed

baudib

I'm definitely down to switch to Gabe.

lynch Gabe

Personally, I think I have a better read on gabe than most, but that doesn't make gabe easy to read.
I have gabe as leaning V.
I will not be too eager to hop on the gabe train until gabe has shown that he's killing villagers.

gabe's campaign last game was full of holes. I don't know how they were missed, but I could do a powerpoint on some of his wolf moves.
YES the "I'm so villagery" is in there... but I seriously think it's the most obvious one and the easiest to anti-spew.
PLUS... I don't think gabe's anyone's fool, certainly not his own when it comes to WW.

So I'm defending gabe... for now... on D1... and it's a risk.

[baudib]

MMM at 1/20th usual involvement I'll still be a better villager than you or Rong.

it's not like I'm anywhere near the bottom of the game in posts or involvement and I'm super unlikely to openly sabotage the village like you've done.

[a500lbgorilla]

IDGAF = anti-village at best and wolfy at worst.

If you don't want to put in your normal effort, and you're burned out on WW, then ask JKDS to sub you out.
'cause otherwise you're just too wolfy to ignore and rilla seems villa, but dems the casualties of war.


if you can't clear baudib, then yes.

Sorry bro.

***
This is what I was worried about. baud gets a pass / free ride by association with a strong villager.
Wolves were going to nom a strong villager anyway.

This game is going to be won by strong V-V pairs being able to clear themselves and their partners.
(This doesn't mean the pair needs to be outed, but POE is going to out the final pairs in no time.)

***
Lynching gabe on D1?
I read something about not doing that in 2015. If only I could remember who it was that started that thread...





Personally, I think I have a better read on gabe than most, but that doesn't make gabe easy to read.
I have gabe as leaning V.
I will not be too eager to hop on the gabe train until gabe has shown that he's killing villagers.

gabe's campaign last game was full of holes. I don't know how they were missed, but I could do a powerpoint on some of his wolf moves.
YES the "I'm so villagery" is in there... but I seriously think it's the most obvious one and the easiest to anti-spew.
PLUS... I don't think gabe's anyone's fool, certainly not his own when it comes to WW.

So I'm defending gabe... for now... on D1... and it's a risk.

gabe and I have a long history. I'm pretty good at reading him to and I'd wager I'm a damn sight better than you. And I still have my vote on him.

Waiting for him to do something that says he's a villager to me.

[baudib]

Prob not moving off Gabe and I'll be all in on Luco or Daven tomorrow.

[a500lbgorilla]

And besides, baudib is my target. If I thought he was a wolf, I'd play it best for the village. You really think a couple more days with him and I can't figure him out?

[a500lbgorilla]

Plus, I really want to solve this game.

[Keybored]

Lets out the remaining 3 pairs.
BigRed
LilRascal
daven
luco
ong
monstr

Uh, Monstr outed with Boog.
You left me off, Hoopy.
Is it cuz you know my partner's affiliation and POV slipped???

[gabe]

killing me is going to make that more difficult

i have no read on rong


of the public pairs, would everyone be happy with killing boog/monstr ?

you are all fish if u stick on me. no evidence

[a500lbgorilla]

Ooooo

[a500lbgorilla]

That was for the keybored post

[gabe]

rescind and lynch boog

people loving rilla too much to kill baudib today. but baudib is not making it to the end of the game

im sticking with the original boog reads. and its a pair (boog/monstr) that doesnt include me

[baudib]

I'd really like to call Ong a villager but I have this nagging concern that if he and Gabe got wolf together again, they'd take this exact line.

[MadMojoMonkey]

And besides, baudib is my target. If I thought he was a wolf, I'd play it best for the village. You really think a couple more days with him and I can't figure him out?

This from YOU?

C'mon... this is impractical... everyone could say the same.

[gabe]

baudib, that feeling doesnt matter because its so unlikely

dont try to influence the village so subversively

[baudib]

Gabe, I just don't believe that you as a villager would really think that default killing Ong because of what he did as a wolf last game would be a good move for the village.

Looks like now you're just flailing about, trying to find a lynch that the group would go for instead of making a case for why they need to die.

[Luco]

Prob not moving off Gabe and I'll be all in on Luco or Daven tomorrow.

My crystal ball says you'll be pushing me before daven tomorrow.

STAY TUNED AMERICA

[a500lbgorilla]

This from YOU?

C'mon... this is impractical... everyone could say the same.

Everyone could say it, but few could deliver.

[gabe]

This from YOU?

C'mon... this is impractical... everyone could say the same.

agree that its rilla's weakest sentences in the thread. his first wolfy marks

[OngBonga]

I'd really like to call Ong a villager but I have this nagging concern that if he and Gabe got wolf together again, they'd take this exact line.

baudib is a wolf with gabe.

[a500lbgorilla]

agree that its rilla's weakest sentences in the thread. his first wolfy marks

You know this is how I village way before this is how I wolf. Plus your difficulty grasping the basic concept of EV really has me scratching my head.

[gabe]

Gabe, I just don't believe that you as a villager would really think that default killing Ong because of what he did as a wolf last game would be a good move for the village.

um...........we play in the same forum right?

yes i believed what i said. yes it was my first day 1 post (where nothing matters). its not like i was saying that on day 4

im not flailing. im a villager. those voting for me = bad villagers

[Keybored]

Lets out the remaining 3 pairs.
BigRed
LilRascal
daven
luco
ong
monstr

ISN'T ANYONE ELSE CURIOUS WHY HOOPY LEFT ME OFF THIS LIST?
ISN'T IT CUZ HE KNOWS MY WOLF PARTNER AND POV SLIPPED??
IS ANYONE LISTENING???

[MadMojoMonkey]

My crystal ball says you'll be pushing me before daven tomorrow.

STAY TUNED AMERICA

Why are you preemptively defensive?

wolfy

[gabe]

ok rilla, time for ev calcs. or how about EW for expected wolf

the EW of my team is ew(gabe) + ew(rong) = 0 +.25

EW of your team = ew(rilla) + ew (baud) = .15 + .4


what

[gabe]

keybored, yes. ill kill hoopy too

[baudib]

um...........we play in the same forum right?

yes i believed what i said. yes it was my first day 1 post (where nothing matters). its not like i was saying that on day 4

im not flailing. im a villager. those voting for me = bad villagers

you're playing a bad village game if you are indeed a villager. The only information we get is from day actions as there's no wolf kills to extrapolate from. This is not the game to float by on Day 1 cuz "lol it's Day 1."

[Luco]

Why are you preemptively defensive?

wolfy

Lol take off the blinders have some humble pie and start playing

[a500lbgorilla]

ok rilla, time for ev calcs. or how about EW for expected wolf

the EW of my team is ew(gabe) + ew(rong) = 0 +.25

EW of your team = ew(rilla) + ew (baud) = .15 + .4


what

lol

[a500lbgorilla]

ISN'T ANYONE ELSE CURIOUS WHY HOOPY LEFT ME OFF THIS LIST?
ISN'T IT CUZ HE KNOWS MY WOLF PARTNER AND POV SLIPPED??
IS ANYONE LISTENING???

I don't want to defend him before he defends himself.

[baudib]

Gabe, how about you put your legendary soul-reading skills to use instead of sticking your finger in the air to see which way the wind blows?

this is definitely flailing.

[gabe]

Gabe, how about you put your legendary soul-reading skills to use instead of sticking your finger in the air to see which way the wind blows?

this is definitely flailing.

boog and baudib are the names id like to see lynched


if the village thought rong was a wolf, i wouldnt be "flailing" id be like "ok"


you keep coming at me but i have villagery posts. its preposterous i would play wolf like this after having such great success last game at going deeper than ive gone in years

[OngBonga]

ISN'T ANYONE ELSE CURIOUS WHY HOOPY LEFT ME OFF THIS LIST?
ISN'T IT CUZ HE KNOWS MY WOLF PARTNER AND POV SLIPPED??
IS ANYONE LISTENING???

I'm curious why, with you, there's an odd number of unclaimed.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Lol take off the blinders have some humble pie and start playing

I really don't know where this aggression is coming from.

I've done my best to clear BID and gabe, who I think are villagers.
I have debated with wuf to the point of flipping to a V-lean on him.
I have key, ong, rilla as V, with rascal and monstr less so.


I've tried to ignore it, but I did reread my lengthy exchange with wuf, and the closest thing to rude was my "do you even read m8?" comment, and by WW standards, that's a kiss on the left butt cheek.

I'm seriously not upset at wuf or you or anyone. OOOOOMMMMMMMMM.

Namaste.