Varchertine's Werewolf Game Thread

[BooG690]

i see zero value in keeping partners hidden. every lynch includes automatic death of the partner. let's be real, none of us are gonna vote to lynch our partners. this is really just a game of "which two players do we want to die". even in a 3v1 situation, it is always correct to not vote your partner since you know that 50% of the deaths in the lynch are village


it's me n teh hoopster

That's not the point. The point is that there is ZERO value in revealing our partners (there is YET to be one rational argument for doing so and, again, we're giving the wolves perfect information on a silver platter). So what you, BID and Rilla are doing is most likely -EV for the village. It's definitely not a positive and stop pretending it is. Why are we revealing without having a logical discussion given it? Those who've revealed so far haven't even thought it through.

i have seen zero reasons why it's a good idea to not reveal. if we waste time trying to figure out if there is any edge to keeping it secret (which would be super tiny if it exists), we'd just be turning that edge into a liability


i dont want people to think that it's wolfy when i don't bold hoopy, because i never will. i dont want to misread the intentions of other players when they never vote their partners too. life if gator and keith were partners but nobody knows it and i see gator acting weirdly about keith, im probably going to call it wolfy. but if i knew they were partners i wouldnt

So what would you have lost from revealing at a point where people suspected wolfiness where you didn't bold hoopy. You created a scenario that didn't exist and that would have been easily solvable: you could have just revealed AT THAT POINT. Hoopy would have corroborated. Nothing would have been lost.

revealing partners gives the village information we dont have. much more value in that than what the wolves get out of knowing. let's say we think gabe is a villager and we lynch bigred because he never does anything, but they're linked. then we say "oh shit how dumb was that, we didnt want gabe to die"

And here you are again creating a sense of urgency THAT DOESN'T EXIST. Let's just reveal as we lynch. There is NOTHING LOST FROM DOING SO.


Wuf, Rilla and BID need to start thinking through this reveal stuff and stop making it seem that anyone who thinks otherwise is suspect. There's a wolf in there somewhere, especially in those revealing without their partners approval.

[wufwugy]

That's not the point. The point is that there is ZERO value in revealing our partners (there is YET to be one rational argument for doing so and, again, we're giving the wolves perfect information on a silver platter).

do we know who we're lynching in normal games? yes. why would we think it's correct to not know who we're lynching in this game?

if the idea that we should keep partners hidden is correct, then i think it necessarily means normal games are entirely a crapshoot because it means in those games we would have made just as good of lynch decisions if we didnt know who we were lynching

[BooG690]

if the idea that we should keep partners hidden is correct, then i think it necessarily means normal games are entirely a crapshoot because it means in those games we would have made just as good of lynch decisions if we didnt know who we were lynching

Do you read shit over before you post or do you just click the button? You think that playing with hidden partners is equal to playing in a regular game and lynching with your eyes closed? Stop trying to make it seem that us lynching without a partner reveal means we don't know who we're lynching. We'd know who we'd be lynching, we just don't know the baggage that comes with lynching them (although, revealing prior to getting lynched would alleviate this problem). Also, does knowing the baggage REALLY change the decision on who to lynch? It should really only change a potential wolf bandwagon. If you strongly suspect a player of being a wolf, the baggage is a moot point.

[BankItDrew]

If you strongly suspect a player of being a wolf, the baggage is a moot point.

Nah... we need to think differently about our voting this game. We need to assign values to pairs.

For example:

If Lover A is paired with Lover B... You assign A with 70% chance wolf and B with 30% Wolf = 50% Average

If Lover C is paired with Lover D... You assign C with 80% chance wolf and D with 0% Wolf (cleared for whatever reason) = 40% Average

Although C>A, we should be lynching the A+B pair instead because the perceived value is higher.

[daven]

Nah... we need to think differently about our voting this game. We need to assign values to pairs.

For example:

If Lover A is paired with Lover B... You assign A with 70% chance wolf and B with 30% Wolf = 50% Average

If Lover C is paired with Lover D... You assign C with 80% chance wolf and D with 0% Wolf (cleared for whatever reason) = 40% Average

Although C>A, we should be lynching the A+B pair instead because the perceived value is higher.

ja, i'm pretty sure drew is a villager - no offence drew, but i simply can't imagine you coming out with this post as a wolf

[BankItDrew]

ja, i'm pretty sure drew is a villager - no offence drew, but i simply can't imagine you coming out with this post as a wolf

I'm not sure why I would be offended. This is off topic though and isn't helping.

[lilrascal]

Nah... we need to think differently about our voting this game. We need to assign values to pairs.

For example:

If Lover A is paired with Lover B... You assign A with 70% chance wolf and B with 30% Wolf = 50% Average

If Lover C is paired with Lover D... You assign C with 80% chance wolf and D with 0% Wolf (cleared for whatever reason) = 40% Average

Although C>A, we should be lynching the A+B pair instead because the perceived value is higher.

I can't argue with the math, but ww math doesn't work that way imo, at least I don't see it working like that in this game.

I think this approach is likely to lead to a wolf win. Following this strategy, the wolves would try and clear a player that one of them is partnered with and ride to victory on the back of a clear villa.

The ONLY way the village can win is to have at least one v/v team as the last team standing.

[BankItDrew]

The ONLY way the village can win is to have at least one v/v team as the last team standing.

Yup, this is true.

I suppose the best way to clear a pair of villagers is to ensure that they are both on wolf wagons... possibly both on multiple wolf wagons.

This leads me to another question:

Is it in the villages best interest to have pairs double vote for the same player?

Just throwing it out there. I haven't given it any thought.

[lilrascal]

Yup, this is true.

I suppose the best way to clear a pair of villagers is to ensure that they are both on wolf wagons... possibly both on multiple wolf wagons.

This leads me to another question:

Is it in the villages best interest to have pairs double vote for the same player?

Just throwing it out there. I haven't given it any thought.

With regards to the above, this strategy almost always leads to a wolf win.

If every team votes as a pair, then half the votes are being influenced by a wolf on D1. If we get a mislynch on D1, then the wolves would hold way too much sway over the vote from D2 on.

[wufwugy]

Do you read shit over before you post or do you just click the button? You think that playing with hidden partners is equal to playing in a regular game and lynching with your eyes closed? Stop trying to make it seem that us lynching without a partner reveal means we don't know who we're lynching.

but that's exactly what it means. every lynch is two players, without exception

you're suggesting it is better that we choose one player to kill and let the other die by surprise instead of choosing which two players are the best to kill.

[BankItDrew]

you're suggesting it is better that we choose one player to kill and let the other die by surprise instead of choosing which two players are the best to kill.

100%

Your efforts are futile.

[rong]

but that's exactly what it means. every lynch is two players, without exception

you're suggesting it is better that we choose one player to kill and let the other die by surprise instead of choosing which two players are the best to kill.

I don't think anyone is saying this. On fact when anyone looks close getting lynched the partner will always out for self preservation. As the should regardless of role.

[rong]

do we know who we're lynching in normal games? yes. why would we think it's correct to not know who we're lynching in this game?

if the idea that we should keep partners hidden is correct, then i think it necessarily means normal games are entirely a crapshoot because it means in those games we would have made just as good of lynch decisions if we didnt know who we were lynching

How is this even remotely true. You're talking rubbish.

[a500lbgorilla]

How is this even remotely true. You're talking rubbish.

Agreed. In other games we still get 2 dead for 1 lynch without knowing the partner until the wolves pick 'em.

[BankItDrew]

Wuf, Rilla and BID need to start thinking through this reveal stuff and stop making it seem that anyone who thinks otherwise is suspect.

I currently do not believe this because most of the players who have not revealed are villagers.

[Keybored]

BooG690 Post #192, "Wuf, Rilla and BID need to start thinking through this reveal stuff and stop making it seem that anyone who thinks otherwise is suspect."

I currently do not believe this because most of the players who have not revealed are villagers.

BID...How can you claim that most players not revealed (at that time) are villagers? What gives you that insight?

[BankItDrew]

BooG690 Post #192, "Wuf, Rilla and BID need to start thinking through this reveal stuff and stop making it seem that anyone who thinks otherwise is suspect."


BID...How can you claim that most players not revealed (at that time) are villagers? What gives you that insight?

Math.

16 players
3 known pairs (6 players)
10 remain
assume 4 are wolves
6 remain
6 is a higher number than 4