Ultimate Werewolf

[wufwugy]

here i'll help you out daven. the cursed is one of these players

BID
Luco
wuf
bigred
baudib
JKDS
daven
aubrey
Gator
rong

[baudib]

The best thing to do is not talk about who should be modkilled.

[wufwugy]

I SHOULD BE MODKILLED YOU SHOULD BE MODKILLED WE ALL SHOULD BE MODKILLED

[daven]

The best thing to do is not talk about who should be modkilled.

but you like geeking out about gameplay theoreticals
day is over and merely waiting for someone to close out the villager lynch
in the meantime please advise - do you think a bigred modkill would be net-beneficial or net-detrimental to the village?

[baudib]

Modkilling BigRed would be detrimental for the village ainec.

[wufwugy]

i miss ducy. not sure if people still use that, but it was fun back in 06

[daven]

Modkilling BigRed would be detrimental for the village ainec.

i love your rationale, this isn't what i'd expect from someone as into this sort of thing as i am.
i posted reasoning, i remain comfortable that it is correct. Show me how i am possibly wrong here

[wufwugy]

Show me how i am possibly wrong here

no. ducy

[baudib]

I'm trying hard to think why Daven would do this as a villager and I just can't find a reason.

From a pure villager EV perspective, modkilling BigRed is bad for reasons already stated. He has considerable villager equity and non-zero special equity.

I'm not gonna pretend to know what reasons Hoopy would or wouldn't modkill someone, but I'd also guess he's less likely to modkill him if he's not vanilla, but I don't even like posting this because posting this thought alone is somewhat angleshooty. Pushing for a modkill isn't something players should do and I'm not in the habit of thinking "wow if he can get someone modkilled it'd be great."

[daven]

From a pure villager EV perspective, modkilling BigRed is bad for reasons already stated. He has considerable villager equity

agree he has villager equity, i don't think this means that his mod-kill would be bad for the village though - if he's vanilla then he's a too easy mislynch target for the wolves

and non-zero special equity.

meh, close to zero seer equity given his no-post on days 3 and today.

anyway, i'm sure i'm going to get slammed in post-game by at least one villager so whatever

[baudib]

i miss ducy. not sure if people still use that, but it was fun back in 06

I think people still use it. DUCY?

[wufwugy]

iducy!

[GatorJH]

I cant see how any modkill is good for the village - lynch daven

[JKDS]

We prob have to lynch bigred when daven flips wolf.

Its entirely possible that theyre both wolves. Daven/Keith get in a tiff with bigred. Bigred leaves in a huff. After being absent, Daven is mad that hes alone, and tries to modkill bigred for vil-cred...thinking that if it doesnt work the game is over anyway since bigred is gone.

It explains this "caught for the wrong reasons" feel i got when daven and keith were arguing against my theory.

[baudib]

Daven, go to google.com
1. type in lolcats
2. find funny pics
3. post them
4. ???

[daven]

I cant see how any modkill is good for the village - lynch daven

wee, pretty sure that's the lynch!
thank god that's over with, even i'm starting to think i'm... arrroooo

[wufwugy]

pretty sure that be 6

if he doesnt flip wolf you'll never hear from me again since im sure my innards will become outtards

[JKDS]

Yay! 2/3!

Now its just theory of Keith-Daven-BID collectiveness, vs bigred huff and tuff theory.

[daven]

if he doesnt flip wolf you'll never hear from me again

is that a promise?

[wufwugy]

promise keepers stannis streakers

[baudib]

LOL nice gg.

JKDS, I'm not so sure. Basically I give no credence to anything a wolf says on his march to the gallows.

[JKDS]

BID was way wolfier before it, so ok. I mean, who am i kidding, there is no way im not gonna try for 3/3

[baudib]

Trust in JKGOAT.

[wufwugy]

it is always bid. dont worry

[daven]

hush now, the day is over and the lynch is done
enjoy the flip
re-read my gallows march, and the whole thread ffs

[daven]

[Luco]

wee, pretty sure that's the lynch!
thank god that's over with, even i'm starting to think i'm... arrroooo

Davens a villager? Or am I misreading this?

[daven]

Davens a villager? Or am I misreading this?

exactly

[Luco]

no seriously whats going on

[baudib]

Luco pretty sure this post

exactly

was just intended to troll as it's totally ambiguous.

I'll quit WW if Daven flips villager.

[daven]

I'll quit WW if Daven flips villager.

oh dear.
i guess this game is sounding a death knoll for werewolf on ftr.
i'm a villager. I hope I'm the miller.

[daven]

knell. knell. knell.

[baudib]

no really come on. stop fucking with us. i just threw up a little, so congrats on that.

[daven]

no really come on. stop fucking with us. i just threw up a little, so congrats on that.

i even went as far as going back to check my pms to confirm.
i received one pm.
i'm a villager - the troll was fun, but i don't think it would be funny to continue it.

[Hoopy]

Alright alright alright I'm here.

[Hoopy]

Day 4

Tempers are fraying. The Spam is gone and nobody knows where dhuber kept his spare toilet rolls.

The finger of suspicion is pointed at daven.

daven stands up and gives a eloquent rebuttal on why he's a humble villager and touches on their current situation, focusing on the resilience of the human spirit in the face of tough times while pursuing life, liberty and happiness. Truly a speech for the ages.

The rabid mob pays no attention to such things as logic and reason. daven is strung up from dhuber's oak tree.

Congratulations village, you've killed ANOTHER regular villager!

The Village
BID
Luco
wuf
bigred
baudib
JKDS
aubrey
Gator
rong


Seer
Priest
Tough Guy
2 Regular Villagers
Miller
Cursed Villager
2 Wolves


MMM, a regular villager, was lynched day 1.
Ong, a regular villager, was killed by the wolves on night 1.
keybored, a regular villager, was lynched day 2.
gabe, a regular villager, was killed by the wolves on night 2.
Keith, a Wolf, was lynched day 3.
dhuber, a regular villager, was killed by the wolves on night 3.
daven, a regular villager, was lynched day 4.

[Hoopy]

Notice

People keep talking about modkills.

This game the only reason I will modkill someone is if they post outside the thread with werewolf stuff (e.g. like MMM did last game) or if they cheat which won't happen with this group anyway.

No modkills for inactivity, regardless of role.

[Hoopy]

Night 4

You know what to do.

24hrs fools.

[Hoopy]

bigred has been very quiet recently.

The reason for this is his newly discovered love for the Twilight books.

He especially likes the werewolf guy, bigred wishes he could be that cool and brooding.

So absorbed in Breaking Dawn he doesn't hear the real life werewolf enter his room.

The wolf brains bigred with a hardcover copy of "War & Peace".

bigred, the miller, was killed by the wolves on night 4.

[Hoopy]

Day 5

It is now day 5.

5 votes to lynch!

The Village
BID
Luco
wuf
baudib
JKDS
aubrey
Gator
rong


Seer
Priest
Tough Guy
2 Regular Villagers
Cursed Villager
2 Wolves


MMM, a regular villager, was lynched day 1.
Ong, a regular villager, was killed by the wolves on night 1.
keybored, a regular villager, was lynched day 2.
gabe, a regular villager, was killed by the wolves on night 2.
Keith, a Wolf, was lynched day 3.
dhuber, a regular villager, was killed by the wolves on night 3.
daven, a regular villager, was lynched day 4.
bigred, the miller, was killed by the wolves on night 4.

[baudib]

LOL WOATWOLVES

that was the stone cold nuts

[wufwugy]

sick last two days gents. two wolves down, two (hopefully not three) more to go

for my homey daven, i made you a poem



Dear Daven

You say I don't read you well
You say that's swell
Rather, the truth of the matter
I see right through your blather

I read you without flaw
Your alignment is a draw
You have perfectly merged your game
Villager? Wolf? To you it's all the same

Actions so batty. Thread so bloody
Are you baddy? Are you buddy?
Your indifference to the difference
Belies your wolfing preference

I've tried to help you out of this mess, I confess
Undressed your thoughts with my mind, I stress
Perhaps an intervention. Perhaps some schooling
Somehow I feel that would just be fooling

This obfuscation, I recommend
You give it your best defriend
Stick to your win condition
Lest we drown in your perdition

[baudib]

Villager, he said
alas, we wouldn't listen
no tears, only dreams

[baudib]

so seriously where is everyone

we should have this locked in, seer give us good news.

[BankItDrew]

I'm confused by the miller thing. The role is highlighted as orange... So not technically a wolf. But you guys are happy and think the village is better off with a dead miller?

[JKDS]

The miller is a villager. But, when the seer looks at him, he sees wolf.

So we now know that the seer's look ups are 100% accurate. Also, he didnt die, so we at best have 4 look ups and a won game. At minimum, we probably have 2 look ups. We're in fantastic shape.

[JKDS]

Seer should out. Wolves have a 1/5 shot of hitting him tonight, assuming we dont lynch a wolf. Some of us are obv not the seer too, so that chance is even smaller.

[BankItDrew]

I'm not the seer but I'd suggest maybe the seer outing himself, giving the look ups, then getting protected at night for another lookup tomorrow.

I think there's a lot of value in what the seer knows right now, rather than risking losing that info tonight for the chance of one more lookup tomorrow.

[aubreymcfate]

i am the seer bc i'm cooler than all of you

confirmed villagers: JKDS, rong, bankitdrew, and daven

[BankItDrew]

The wolves would need a successful hail mary if the seer outs himself. The seer getting killed today/tomorrow is the worst thing that could happen to the village and wolves win with a high variance game more often imo than a low variance game.

seer should out before anyone votes too imo.

[aubreymcfate]

dear bankitdrew: look up

[BankItDrew]

i am the seer bc i'm cooler than all of you

confirmed villagers: JKDS, rong, bankitdrew, and daven

So I guess this is legit until someone else claims. It would be dumb for wolves to not fake claim today.

It might be in the wolves best interest to fake claim twice. I'm interested in hearing strat on this.

[BankItDrew]

Claiming twice is stupid actually after thinking about it for 60 seconds. I can see why it might be a good idea later in the game.

[JKDS]

Ok, so i was 1 for 3. But I can read keith like a book, and everything else fit. Sue me.

I would be beyond surprised if wuf is a wolf, based on his interaction with keith during his lynch. Add him to the villager pile.

Look ups + seer
JKDS
aubrey
BID
rong

Almost certainly a vil
Wuf

Remainder
Luco
baudib
Gator

We have our wolves, and cursed. Good game guys. In hindsight, i can see baudib and luco being wolves. Both kinda fence sat with keith. They didnt fully endorse, nor fully avoid the lynch, it makes sense. Admitedly, more sense than my "they all colluded to defend each other' theory.

Good game.

[JKDS]

Good job foolin me baudib. That argument that you wouldnt go after gabe was pretty convincing. Luco you did a good job of staying out of the limelight too.

This is the reason i hate seer games. It transforms the game into a "find the seer or lose" challenge, and thats just no fun. If the seer died, you guys stood a great chance of winning. Especially after I made that stupid comment that made it sound like i thought daven was a villager. (which, subconsciously, i actually did.)

[BankItDrew]

So two seers see each other as a villager.

If one is telling the truth, wouldn't they have said the other was not seen as a villager?

[baudib]

Nice GG Aubrey

but
1. I'm not a wolf
2. Game not clinched because ...well, DUCY

Even if we lynch a wolf today and EVEN if Aubrey gets another lookup, the Cursed villager can be converted (can be any one of the 4 "confirmed" villagers) and will be impossible to find through game mechanics.

[baudib]

Wuf is 0% vanillager here so his claim (and possible CC) could clear things up a lot though.

[BankItDrew]

Nice GG Aubrey

but
1. I'm not a wolf
2. Game not clinched because ...well, DUCY

Even if we lynch a wolf today and EVEN if Aubrey gets another lookup, the Cursed villager can be converted (can be any one of the 4 "confirmed" villagers) and will be impossible to find through game mechanics.

How can you call aubrey a liar and then ponder what happens if Aubrey gets another lookup?

[baudib]

I didn't call her a liar?

[baudib]

BTW Drew derp cleared himself on this page, did anyone else catch it?

[BankItDrew]

Aubrey says she looked up 4 villagers.

If Aubrey is telling the truth, and baudib is telling the truth, then baudib is the cursed wolf.

Amirite?

[BankItDrew]

BTW Drew derp cleared himself on this page, did anyone else catch it?

What better way to help the village win than by clearing oneself?

[baudib]

Aubrey says she looked up 4 villagers.

If Aubrey is telling the truth, and baudib is telling the truth, then baudib is the cursed wolf.

Amirite?

Assuming no other claims

Aubrey - Seer

Wolves in
Gator
Wuf
Luco

The Cursed Villager can be any of
Rong
Drew
JKDS
Gator
Wuf
Luco

[baudib]

The mistake you and JKDS made is thinking that the Cursed Villager can't be one of Aubrey's lookups.

[BankItDrew]

Touche

[baudib]

I'm confused by the miller thing. The role is highlighted as orange... So not technically a wolf. But you guys are happy and think the village is better off with a dead miller?

^^ derp clear application accepted.

your reaction here is genuine enough, hard to fake this as a wolf.

[BankItDrew]

I can't wait to play this bad as a wolf and get cleared early lol

[Luco]

Wolves are baud and gator, BID is cursed.

[Luco]

My mislynch doesn't even matter, this one is over

GG baudib you fooled me good, Gator thanks for subbing

Drew you played bad and you should feel bad lol

[baudib]

Luco you're not the priest? Shoulda fake claimedIMO.

I went back and my role pm still says villager.

Wuf could still be a wolf, and we still have Cursed to worry about.

[Luco]

Luco you're not the priest? Shoulda fake claimedIMO.

I went back and my role pm still says villager.

Wuf could still be a wolf, and we still have Cursed to worry about.

Lol the only other possible cursed is rong, and it's not rong. BID has been slanking all game

[baudib]

Wuf has the most Cursed equity by far but he's probably Priest or Wolf. He's literally 0% vanillager.

JKDS might be ~%2 Cursed/98% vanillager.

[BankItDrew]

Drew you played bad and you should feel bad lol

I agree with the first part but not the second.

[baudib]

also how in the fuck am I a wolf here? So I was bussing Keith? That makes no sense. If I'm a wolf I'm jumping up and down screaming, "HEY LOOK I LYNCHED A WOLF!" (see Ong last game)