Ultimate Werewolf

[baudib]

Woke up late. I'm pretty convinced Keybored is a wolf by this absence.

[Luco]

Ah, I see it now.

Glad I could help you finally spell keith

The risk of lynching a seer is only part of the equation though. We're analyzing the risk of lynching the seer vs gain of lynching a wolf (which, as we have seen, has immense value in finding his buddies). The risk is also inversely proportional to the gain. No one would be against the lynch of someone who arroo'd, and then claimed seer. Thats because the risk is so low, and the gain so high. This is a similar case.

And your reasoning for not thinking he claimed was in part because he said he was a vanillager a few times, and was concerned with finding the seer. That is evidence against him being the seer, so you thought he was saying something else. But if it is a claim, which it is, then it is still evidence against him being the seer, and makes his claim unbelievable.

Well we're having quite the difference of opinion here, but at least your analysis of my take on this is accurate

I would also like to hear from keybored

[Keith]

jeez ....don't they teach kids the well known rhyme in school anymore " I before E except after K"

[gabe]

keybored didnt claim seer, he just said some words hoping we would leave him alone. then he left us alone... probably so he wouldnt incriminate himself further in uncharted waters (him trying a fake out)

doesnt make any sense thats hes the seer, it makes perfect sense hes a wolf, hes a great candidate

im not changing off him. the other people i think are likely wolves will be difficult to get lynched. so im happy on keybored.

[Keith]

Woke up late. I'm pretty convinced Keybored is a wolf by this absence.

convinced enough to vote for him ?

[aubreymcfate]

hardcore skimmed, sorry for being MIA, santa fe is the most beautiful place and i'm staying in the same house william burroughs and all these other beat poets used to chill at and i'm on a freaking ranch, soooooooooo you can understand why i am not really compelled to dig out my laptop too frequently

anyway im just making my presence known, i'm still skimming though and trying to get a decent read so i have something to contribute, i do have some thoughts already but i need a little bit more time

i apologize in advance for my not being around too much

[baudib]

yeah I could Keith, but I want to observe.

[rong]

Yeah, he's Defo a wolf. He knew he was going down and he succeeded in ensuring next to no info has come out of today by making us all sit here and do nothing while we wait in him. No seer ever does what he does.

[rong]

But if I was a caught wolf in that situation, I'd claim seer and say I looked up gabe/daven/gator etc in the hope that my last roll of the dice takes out a strong villager.

Nothing about this makes sense but its more wolf than seer.

[rong]

And I know gator isn't playing, just illustrating the point.

[dhubermex]

I don't see it (Keybored wolfing), but there's no reason for me to stay on gabe when it's a solo wagon.

rescind gabe (although the lynch and rescind were both meaningless apparently)

No one except Luco has addressed my questions about baudib's Post #1077, so I'll drop that as well. I wasn't sure about it, Luco put some pressure on and it seemed to come out okay. Fact is I wouldn't want to lose either Keybored or baudib if they're both Villagers, just that baudib's post struck me as something that would be good to post for a Wolf.

I still may nom BID depending how the wagon goes in the upcoming hours, but for now I'll hold off.

[daven]

Woke up late. I'm pretty convinced Keybored is a wolf by this absence.

convinced enough to vote for him ?

yeah I could Keith, but I want to observe.

this interchange concerns me a lot. Baudi, what are you doing here? what it looks like is keeping keybored's wagon small enough that it would only take some very small movements to save him.
Enough of that, keybored has had a lot of time to come back and explain what's going on.
he hasn't done so.

Rescind Wuf
Lynch Keybored.

[daven]

I still may nom BID depending how the wagon goes in the upcoming hours, but for now I'll hold off.

^ this reads really strange to me

[baudib]

Daven, fair enough and I like that you said that and not someone else. You were on perhaps the most likely wagon to gain support and you can't be W-W with Wuf.

I was hoping that we would see some sort of late movement or push to lynch someone else, which would tell us a lot.

[rong]

^ this reads really strange to me

The use of the word nom, but I dunno if he's been around when that term was used.

[Luco]

^ this reads really strange to me

because he said nom instead of vote?

[baudib]

It's huge if Keybored's a wolf because we can clear Keith, Gabe and Daven at minimum.

I know it will look bad for me because I've been defending him a lot but w/e.

From my perspective, Keybored-BID as wolves makes a lot of sense.

[Keith]

this interchange concerns me a lot. Baudi, what are you doing here? what it looks like is keeping keybored's wagon small enough that it would only take some very small movements to save him.
Enough of that, keybored has had a lot of time to come back and explain what's going on.
he hasn't done so.

Rescind Wuf
Lynch Keybored.

thats why i asked the question. If Baud is convinced then why wouldn't he vote for him . Kinda stinks of waiting for an alternative wagon to start .

I don't see it (Keybored wolfing), but there's no reason for me to stay on gabe when it's a solo wagon.

rescind gabe (although the lynch and rescind were both meaningless apparently)

No one except Luco has addressed my questions about baudib's Post #1077, so I'll drop that as well. I wasn't sure about it, Luco put some pressure on and it seemed to come out okay. Fact is I wouldn't want to lose either Keybored or baudib if they're both Villagers, just that baudib's post struck me as something that would be good to post for a Wolf.

I still may nom BID depending how the wagon goes in the upcoming hours, but for now I'll hold off.

Factor in this post and theres a soft protection of keybored by baudib and a full on protection by dhuber and that wishy washy line about baudib that he doesn't want to lose baudib but his post would be good to post as a wolf . Seems like a wolf team covering its own asses and even trying to get a wagon rolling on a relative inactive in BID.

[Luco]

alternative... deploy!

rescind jkds, lynch bid

[baudib]

how am I soft protecting Keybored when I said he's probably a wolf?

I guess it doesn't matter now but I was trying to see if anyone would try to push someone else with the vote still being 4-2-1.

Trust me, if it gets close I will be here till EOD and snipe Keybored.

[daven]

from post 53

FWIW, I was also looking for a further explanation of those two roles but decided not to post a request because I didn't want to appear to be aroooo-ing. Just some food for thought since I know I'm Vanilla.

also, dhuber looks like either super enthusiastic villager expecting too much info to be contained in the first 50 posts of day 1, or like a wolf trying really hard to look like a sleuthing villager.
meh, dunno, just putting it out there now cos no night chat and i kinda expect to be gat tonight.

[BankItDrew]

I still may nom BID depending how the wagon goes in the upcoming hours, but for now I'll hold off.

Villagers lynch, wolves nom.

I know dhub is a relative n00b but he has played the last 3 games I believe.

[baudib]

You can disregard this post until I die. There are levels built into levels. Nothing in this post should be considered a claim, except that I hard-claim not the Priest.

**************************
If I am seer, JKDS is a villager
**************************

If I die seer, refer to this post and find the last list I post. If that list directly contradicts this post, then this post is a fake and my real lookup is in the last list and it won't be hard to find.

If I am vanilla and killed anyway, JKDS should be considered a confirmed villager. This status has an expiration date of ~ 1 day after the real seer dies. At that point you need to seriously reconsider his status.

[dhubermex]

Villagers lynch, wolves nom.

I know dhub is a relative n00b but he has played the last 3 games I believe.

I've seen this before but didn't put much thought into the wording of the post (had just woken up). Read into it what you will. I'll be more careful to always post "lynch" when referring to a Villager vote going forward.

[daven]

post 118 from jkds seems wolf-flavoured somehow. Note that keith had one post in the thread at this stage. And the use of the word 'does' suggests he added another name as an afterthought, that's the kinda thing that wolves do...

Baudib, gabe, ong, and mmm all feel like their villager game.

Keith feels off. So does Luco and wuf.

[daven]

You can disregard this post until I die. There are levels built into levels. Nothing in this post should be considered a claim, except that I hard-claim not the Priest.

**************************
If I am seer, JKDS is a villager
**************************

If I die seer, refer to this post and find the last list I post. If that list directly contradicts this post, then this post is a fake and my real lookup is in the last list and it won't be hard to find.

If I am vanilla and killed anyway, JKDS should be considered a confirmed villager. This status has an expiration date of ~ 1 day after the real seer dies. At that point you need to seriously reconsider his status.

way to mess with everyone's heads. Including the angel and the wolves. Shit bro
ok, even taking into account the 'levels built into levels' comment - to me this looks more wolf than villager and a play to make the angel waste his defence on baudi tonight

[baudib]

as I said you should ignore it unless I die.

[rong]

Lynch keyboard he's dug his own grave.

[baudib]

that goes for the angel, too. I don't advice protecting me tonight.

[Keybored]

Hey everyone! No trickery going on here; just needed to get past my hangover headache. A lot has been said/done since my last post. And unfortunately, I think there's too much to overcome. Upon first read, I was emotionally incited to jump into action. But my wagon is overloaded with too many heavies and I feel completely overwhelmed. I'm currently sitting on 5 or 6 votes and I don't see enough counter wagon initiative to save me. So with that state of mind, I'm just gonna let nature take its course.

About my Seer comment...At this point, those against me have their minds made up. Nothing I say now will make a diff to them and would only serve to fuel their fires. We would only end up chasing our tails all day and my wagon would simply roll off the cliff. I fully understand the nature/importance of this special role; it ain't fucking rocket science y'all. So know this, I chose those words very, very carefully.

This'll probably be my final post of the game so here's a few final thoughts...

KEITH first -- After I flip V tonight, I encourage all fellow villagers to take note of his attack in spite of me trying to get him to be more productive. I don't blame him for my death cuz his efforts weren't gonna do it. But I just can't accept his blatantly narrow focus as being from a villager's frame of mind. If he's W, then gg to him for effectively distracting me/us.

BID -- His shit is so Wolf it ain't funny. Just look at his meager 15 posts, his timing, and his voting and you'll easily see. If you allow him to post like that and also lurk the way he has and not bold him, then you outright cannot use inactivity/lurking as a reason against anyone else. After I flip, he's gotta be snap lynched. And his relationship with Keith has to be analyzed.

GABE -- Dude's totally out of his norm and this Monstr fixation is ridiculous. He's my pick for Cursed.

RONG -- He insta-bolded me after my Seer comment like a hungry wolf cuz he doesn't give me enough credit to be clever enough. Then the discussion got going about how stupid that is and he insta-rescinded. I don't lock-wolf him for this but his actions should be dully noted by all.

WUF -- His wackiness has got to be called out soon. He seems to have everyone convinced he's a space case this game, trying new things, but has also lost his love for WW. Whatever! He's def playing a role this game but I don't know which one.

DAVEN -- I wanted to clear him for d1 wagonomics but his actions after my last post smell fishy. Keep your eyes on this one.

AUBREY -- Why signup to play if you had no intention to do so. Have fun in Santa Fe and you've absolutely gotta go visit Holy Chimayo church while you're there! I ain't religious but that place is truly special.

MONSTR -- Same as Aubrey. I hope you become more involved and continue to play FTR WW.

BIGRED -- Same as Aubrey/Monstr. Maybe he's a slow starter and that's cool but it trips me out that ppl give free rides to the less active and are quick to busta move on actives players. In general tho, I've got no wolf feel off him.

JKDS -- Obv, I'm back/forth on him but it's mostly cuz he's played this/last game so differently. I haven't super-analyzed his play after my last post but gut feel is that he's not posting like a W.

DHUBER/LUCO/BAUDIB -- Lock Village.

MMM -- For the record, I rallied for him cuz I knew he was V.
ONG -- I had him lock-village also, as much as you can get for a d1 feel.

[BankItDrew]

Doesn't make a whooooole lotta sense to post what keybored just posted while being a wolf.

Transfer to JKDS with me, anyone?

[daven]

About my Seer comment...At this point, those against me have their minds made up. Nothing I say now will make a diff to them and would only serve to fuel their fires. We would only end up chasing our tails all day and my wagon would simply roll off the cliff. I fully understand the nature/importance of this special role; it ain't fucking rocket science y'all. So know this, I chose those words very, very carefully.

if you are seer then ffs claim it and tell us your night one lookup.
if not, then iunno

[BankItDrew]

There have been a few players now talk about how I'm totally inactive or afk all game.

Give me a fucking break already... I was only afk for PART OF DAY 1. Big deal.

[BankItDrew]

if you are seer then ffs claim it and tell us your night one lookup.
if not, then iunno

This.

retarded seer limbo claim.

[daven]

MMM -- For the record, I rallied for him cuz I knew he was V.

no villager could 'know' this on day 1.

[dhubermex]

Doesn't make a whooooole lotta sense to post what keybored just posted while being a wolf.

Transfer to JKDS with me, anyone?

I won't because of baudib's Post #1148. There's nothing for me to go on (regarding baud-wolf) except a doubt about his Post #1077... it's not enough to place him as a Wolf lean and therefore I believe the best course of action is to take his JKDS-claim as legit for now.

[BankItDrew]

A pet peeve of mine is when players reference a post without quoting it.

I have never went back through the thread to read what it actually said and I never will.

[baudib]

what part of disregard do you not understand?

I won't vote JKDS because I have to protect my fake lookup for now but anyone else should do what they want.

[BankItDrew]

no villager could 'know' this on day 1.

I thought the same thing.

However, I don't believe wolf keybored makes this slip up. Similar to my dhub quote regarding nomming people. I think it's just a common thing for people to say once something happens. "I knew it."

[daven]

re-read and i now am about 80% confident on who the cursed villager is.
trying to figure out what is optimal on that front. Obviously if i can see it then the wolves can to, so here goes:
post 219, bold added for emphasis

Only read first post so far. What's a zimmerframe and how do I thank it for finally finishing the job?

Also, did you know you don't have to use the mobile version when browsing this site from your phone? I didn't. I didn't figure it out until I gave up trying to load page 1 and it loaded page 2 instead like 20 times.

You our guys see all these facts I'm filled with? Tons of facts. Super useful. Let's find some wolves and maybe some sun for the comet lander? Poor guy. All alone.

[baudib]

nice find Daven. I have my own suspicion and I am waiting for the player to post.

[BankItDrew]

re-read and i now am about 80% confident on who the cursed villager is.
trying to figure out what is optimal on that front. Obviously if i can see it then the wolves can to, so here goes:
post 219, bold added for emphasis

You think bigred used Rosetta as an analogy for him being cursed?

I don't.

[daven]

me, or he's wolf and gabe is cursed. one of those two options.

[daven]

^that last is based on posts 222 - bigred asking players to communicate via pics and post 255 from gabe with pics and the comment about forming an alliance

[baudib]

LOL BID

[baudib]

Keybored disappeared again

BID defending him in a really weird way.

I advise holding course.

[Luco]

There have been a few players now talk about how I'm totally inactive or afk all game.

Give me a fucking break already... I was only afk for PART OF DAY 1. Big deal.

Drew, if I wanted smoke blown up my ass I'd be in my garage with a pack of cigarettes and a short length of hose

[Keybored]

if you are seer then ffs claim it and tell us your night one lookup.
if not, then iunno

What's the survivability rate and/or future quality of life of the lookup if it's Vanilla?

What if I know in my heart of hearts that I was the lookup and that info has already been passed?

What if I'm limbo claiming to aide concealment the real deal?

[dhubermex]

re-read and i now am about 80% confident on who the cursed villager is.
trying to figure out what is optimal on that front. Obviously if i can see it then the wolves can to, so here goes:
post 219, bold added for emphasis

I like the read, especially since the bolded part is completely irrelevant to the rest of the post.

[Keybored]

Keybored disappeared again

BID defending him in a really weird way.

I advise holding course.

Nope...just trolling.

[dhubermex]

Nope...just trolling.

You mean lurking.

[Keybored]

You mean lurking.

U mean nothing. ; )

[rong]

^that last is based on posts 222 - bigred asking players to communicate via pics and post 255 from gabe with pics and the comment about forming an alliance

This sounds good.

[rong]

Keyboard, Gabe, baudib, bigred.

[daven]

Keyboard, Gabe, baudib, bigred.

looks good to me, not sure about baudib though
i'm feeling pretty lock on keybored/bigred as wolves and gabe as cursed

[baudib]

I went to get something to eat and was glancing at my phone, don't know why the thread got so quiet. It kinda gave me a bad feeling.

Keyboard, Gabe, baudib, bigred.

At least this time I understand why you think it's me, but it's not.

I'd like an explanation from Gabe for that alliance pic and stuff.

[daven]

last wolf is probably jkds. Could be in wuf/bid/baudib with keith wildcard.
there. them's my end day 2 reads.
based on the premise that keybored = wolf obviously

[Hoopy]

Important Announcement

Effective immediately.

GatorJH replaces monstrman.

[Hoopy]

Less than 1 hour to go you lovable rascals.

[daven]

Important Announcement

Effective immediately.

GatorJH replaces monstrman.

holy shit.
dunno what this means exactly, but monstr claiming he was playing four games off site was pissing me off when he initially said he was playing one off site and that meant not enough time to devote to this game.
I don't think he should be invited to play here in future, sorry baudib. If he's here in a future game i will be pushing heavily for his day 1 policy lynch or choosing not to play.

[rong]

Great, now we've got gator to deal with.

[Keybored]

Good playing with ya, Gator.

Oh yah...LYNCH GATOR

[Hoopy]

Vote Count 2.3

keybored - 6 (keith, JKDS, gabe, wuf, daven, rong)
BID - 2 (keybored, Luco)
wuf - 1 (baudib)
JKDS - 1 (BID)
aubrey - 1 (bigred)

No vote - (aubrey, Gator, dhuber)

8 votes to lynch!

[rong]

Great, now we've got gator to deal with.

That's meant with nothing but love obv.

[Keybored]

Seriously, villagers...Take a good look at how the wolves jumped on me last night. Make them explain themselves. This was a snap blood-bath that didn't wait for chat or planning. They reacted instinctively and got caught being lazy.

[Keybored]

Thanks for having me Hoopy.
Good game, y'all.
Happy Holidays and whatnot.
Cheers!

[baudib]

I didn't want to mention this before but I saw in the Champs thread the other day that Monstr had a serious RL issue. Basically, something he had his heart set on didn't work out, I've been hearing about it for a long time and he seems seriously bummed out. He said this in the Champs thread:

I don't want this to affect anyone's read of me because I'd prefer to keep it all in game

In fact just forget I even brought that up because I don't even want to get into anything about it.

[baudib]

In the Champs game, Monstr got lynched as a wolf. He did something in that game I had never seen him do before, and I was kinda hoping he'd come back so I could see if he did it here, too.

[Luco]

How hilarious would a gator wagon be right now

[Keith]

said the guy who got nommed the night he subbed in .... I was fuming .....all that campaigning I did so that you could play ....and the other wolf could be subbed as well.

[baudib]

Gator how are you a villager? You haven't done a damn thing all game.

[Luco]

said the guy who got nommed the night he subbed in .... I was fuming .....all that campaigning I did so that you could play ....and the other wolf could be subbed as well.

Lol I forgot about that, I didnt even mind at the time

[baudib]

Keybored if you're a villager you played it bad and you should feel bad. you needed to come in and clarify whatever the hell you were trying to do, not be cryptic and confusing.

[Keybored]

Keybored if you're a villager you played it bad and you should feel bad. you needed to come in and clarify whatever the hell you were trying to do, not be cryptic and confusing.

Damn Baud...yer harsh. Apparently I'm a terrible villager. D2 dead 3 in a row. Don't give up on me tho. Alas, I was protecting the Seer. You'll see how later.

[Hoopy]

The day is over.