Ultimate Werewolf

[wufwugy]

he cant be the seer. he could be cursed tho

[wufwugy]

lunch kuyburud

[wufwugy]

i dont care if you guys lynch me, just dont cinch me

[JKDS]

@Gabe: It could mean that. But theres no context to suggest he meant he spotted the seer. He just kinda randomly says "the seer has spoken". And if he meant that the seer's been talking this game...well of course...everyone's been talking. Its a claim.

[baudib]

JKDS, I saw it and don't think it's a big deal. I guess he is soft-claiming some sort of PR role but w/e.

[baudib]

I mean our games react differently to claims than other forums.

At POG I could say "hey I got seer" on day 1 and everyone would ignore me (except the wolves) until I made it a hard claim. Because everyone more or less hints at being a PR.

In keybored's case I don't think it means anything until he really hard claims.

Obviously real seer/Priest should not out.

[daven]

real seer (assuming it's not keybored), don't out in response to this from keybored obviously.

he cant be the seer. he could be cursed tho

what it feels like to me is a wolf ploy to try and generate the true seer to out.
agree re the above that he could be cursed and now trying to help the wolves to get the seer to out.

meh, i think keybored would be a lot clearer if he was truly the seer. I read through his reads posts before posting what i thought about him as wolf, and why i had earlier thought he might be seer, and nothing stood out that made me consider him seer.

how much longer on this game day?

[JKDS]

@Baudib: Generally, you would have a point.

But he said it in response to being lynched,. Not to provide cover for the seer.

Besides, is that what Keybored does? Does anyone have experience with him fake claiming as a villager? I dont think he plays off-ftr, but idk about that

[Hoopy]

Vote Count 2.2

keybored - 5 (keith, JKDS, gabe, rong, wuf)
wuf - 2 (daven, baudib)
BID - 2 (Luco, keybored)
gabe - 1 (dhuber)
JKDS - 1 (BID)
aubrey - 1 (bigred)

No vote - (aubrey, monstrman)

8 votes to lynch!

Just under 24hrs to go.

[baudib]

I didn't realize Keybored was such a runaway. I guess he needs to clarify.

I thought he was soft-claiming priest with his "I'm looking to uncover the seer to protect him" comment.

[baudib]

Keybored said he didn't even know WW existed on other forums so he didn't pick up the strat somewhere else.

So yeah with him being lead wagon he's prob a special or wolf.

[dhubermex]

I'm not liking the Keybored wagon one bit. I like a BID lynch less than a gabe lynch, but could switch to BID. The issue here is that Keybored played so well as Wolf last match that he could be a target by Villagers with that as a main reason.

wuf's posts aren't giving me any information, but I still don't like a wuf-lynch any more than a Keybored lynch. I'm dead-set against a baudib lynch as well, same goes for rong. Does anyone want to join me on the gabe wagon?

[rong]

Rescind keyboard

[Luco]

Couple of games back drew claimed angel on the ropes and I called BS, but still rescinded. Turns out he was legit.

If there's a special claim of any sort, you snap rescind no matter how fishy you think it is.

Wtf is going on? How did ya'll just ignore this and continue as if nothing happened? This looks like a seer claim, yet ya'll dont addresss if its bullshit or legit, and you dont respond to it in any way. The fuck

I skimmed the start of Day 2, I dont see any obvious "I looked up x, hes y" posts from keybored.

I also dont recall Key ever pointing towards or away from anyone in his 'analysis/research' posts either. Someone with actual knowledge of 1 persons role would use their analysis/research to point towards that result (or they'd think their analysis/research was bs).

Looks like bs to me.

@Gabe: It could mean that. But theres no context to suggest he meant he spotted the seer. He just kinda randomly says "the seer has spoken". And if he meant that the seer's been talking this game...well of course...everyone's been talking. Its a claim.

@Baudib: Generally, you would have a point.

But he said it in response to being lynched,. Not to provide cover for the seer.

Besides, is that what Keybored does? Does anyone have experience with him fake claiming as a villager? I dont think he plays off-ftr, but idk about that

You of all people should know better. Remember the star wars game where the village lynched Luke Skywalker D1?

The whole point of the self named seer gambit is that the most plus ev move for the village is to not lynch the claimed seer.

Route 1: We lynch philly right now. Hes a wolf. Yay, village pulls a little ahead

Route 2: We lynch philly right now. Hes a lukeskywalker. Well fuck we're retarded, villaige falls wayyy behind.

Route 3: We wait. Hes a wolf. We're all hyper suspicious, real angel/seer is hiding. The real one gets several look ups, reveals, philly dies, no big deal. We lose nothing in comparison to Route 1 but dont risk lynching the seer.

Route 4: We wait. Hes luke. We dont trust him, he gets 1 or 2 look ups maybe. When he dies we gain info based on any look ups he gains or who has gone after him.

Clearly waiting is better than lynching regardless of his identity. Fwiw, i think hes mega wolfy too...but it clearly doesnt matter.

Also i ignored the possibility that hes just a villager cuz that doesnt really matter and only further sways us to waiting.

You were a villager that game. So was rong. He's rescinded, why haven't you? You're not this stupid, wolfy as fuck.

lol i totally missed that. as did daven, baud, and gabe. go fuckin figure

It doesn't look like a seer claim to me because he's caled himself vanillager more than once this game and he was telling keith to 'find the seer' before that post. But anyone who thought he was claiming seer but hasn't rescinded is wolfy or stupid.

i saw it and keybored is still bold. i dont think hes a sharp enough villager to have spotted the seer. i believe he might tihnk he has, or that hes a wolf who feels trapped

Gabe doesn't see it as a seer claim, just that he claims to have found the seer

doesnt look like he's claiming he spotted the seer but that he is the seer

Wuf thinks he's claiming seer, then bolds him. Wolfy or stupid.

real seer (assuming it's not keybored), don't out in response to this from keybored obviously.



what it feels like to me is a wolf ploy to try and generate the true seer to out.
agree re the above that he could be cursed and now trying to help the wolves to get the seer to out.

meh, i think keybored would be a lot clearer if he was truly the seer. I read through his reads posts before posting what i thought about him as wolf, and why i had earlier thought he might be seer, and nothing stood out that made me consider him seer.

how much longer on this game day?

Daven is on wuf here, not keybored. Still pushes for his lynch though, wolfy or stupid

Rescind keyboard

Winner winner chicken dinner

rescind drew, lynch jkds

[BankItDrew]

Slow day

where is aubrey in all of this?

Thanks luco, for switching to jkds. I think he and keybored are wolves.

[Luco]

Slow day

where is aubrey in all of this?

Thanks luco, for switching to jkds. I think he and keybored are wolves.

Why? and don't thank me yet

[Luco]

To be clear, why do you think jkds and key are wolves?

[Keith]

I put out a lot of content in D1 and that makes me an easy target cuz I know the more you say the more it can be twisted. But if I'd come out low profile after last game, I woulda been targeted for that 180. So I decided this game to be myself and not try to limit myself. Here's the deal, I'm an above average typist who can nearly type as fast as one speaks. So it's easy for me to over spew. That's a detriment in this game cuz ppl just want bullets. But it's who I am.

My thing about Keith d1 was to point out that if he's wolf then his MMM vote was 100% hidden by his pregame announcement of it. So I poked him and got him to react. My super spew a bit ago to him was to see if he welcomed the engagement or not. Cuz if he's a wolf, then he'd love to take a vanillager outta play today. And I was baiting others to react to a super battle that woulda been bad for the V. I invite everyone to take note of that and see who reacted and how.

Now, here's my reads in no particular order:

DHUBER is a Villager--He's playing EXACTLY like last game where he was a lock V. I know him very well and I sense zero wolf traits.

BAUDIB is a Villager--He/I started WW at FTR same game (Gold Rush) and it's obv that his game has evolved wicked good. That said, I also know him fairly well and he's playing super smart villager. That, plus he/I are def mind melding this game.

LUCO is a Villager--I've liked him all game. And when he came out and told me to "Stop Doing This" re my early postings today, I can't ever see a wolf trying to help or dissuade a wondering villager.

BIGRED is a Villager--He's doing his normal lol-catting around, staying neutral with everyone, keeping up, and posting well. Could be a low profile wolf but until he drops a hint, I'm feeling good about him.

DAVEN is a Villager--Yup, yup. All that wagoning and voting yesterday easily clears him. And his work today so far is pro V.

MMM is a Villager--I say this cuz I also know him well and was 100% in his corner after his reversion.

Ong is a Villager--I know him better that anyone and I was certain he was V all day but I also felt he was a special but didn't want to draw attn to that. I

RONG is Leaning Villager--His style hasn't changed from what I know of him. So I like that as a V. But his exchanges with Baudib have me wondering how he can be so wrong. Thing is, I think Rong inwardly dislikes Baudib for 'tainting' the sacred FTR WW with other game styles. So I'm keeping Rong neutral but with a V lean.

KEITH is Leaning Villager--WTF, you say? Yah yah, I pulled the big dog's tail and he turned around and bit back. Exactly as expected and in keeping with his norm. Does that make me a wishy-washy wolf or a clever villager; you decide on your own. But I will say this, Keith's weakness is the blinders he puts on when targeting. I'd like him to overcome that and start hunting. If he can't/won't do that, then he's a wolf.
*****
AUBREY is Neutral--TBH, I don't know her and don't have the skills to read her stuff. I'd like to see more before judging further.
*****
WUF is a Wolf--No way he acts how he is as a helpful villager. Everything he's doing is wrong.

BID is a Wolf--He had, like only a dozen posts d1. Dude's was nearly absent. But what he did do was snuggle with Monstr and hop on an easy MMM wagon.

MONSTR is Leaning Wolf--I didn't like nuking a new guy but I'm beginning to lean away from him now. I'm very interested in what he says today.

GABE is Leaning Wolf--He has def been off his normal early game and his tunneling of Monstr is awkward. I can easily see a contrived W-W plan here.

JKDS is Leaning Wolf--His absence d1 doesn't give me anything to work with and missing a vote totally sux. But he's on board today so we'll see. However, his case against me above is weaksauce (not just cuz it's against me, but cuz it's weak). He's much better than that. And his back/forth with Gabe so far today is odd to me.

how does a seer make this post , theres a 180 on what he says about me so could indicate a lookup, but its vague. Lots of people are definites though so the definites are more likely to have been his lookup than me but how can the village know who the lookup was. Luco's post above about him telling me to look for the seer could have been a reference to this post implying that that i should realise that he changed his stance on me so he likely looked me up and therefore he was the seer. He can easily say that as a wolf though to make my attacks on him stop. Look how i twisted the wording of Ongs (?) crumb to get a mislynch in keybored's first game. he'd be well aware of how wolves would twist ambiguous statements and certainly wouldn't have made this post with this wording if he was the seer.

[Luco]

Post #980 for reference

Cuz the wagon stalled Keith. Nobody's buying your story and ppl aren't interested in your rage rants. I get it, your wolf hunt is over today. But have you even tried to find the seer yet? Do something useful or stop wasting posts, as u put it...

Good spot keith. Keybored we're gonna need some clarification.

[rong]

That Was the Weakest seer claim I've ever seen. Given the speed of the wagon it doesn't seem legit. Surely he'd of been much clearer if actually the seer. Seemed more like buying time to confer with wolf buddies.

[rong]

Look at the Wolves piling on! They smell blood and chomp-chomp. I used this same technique a lot last game as wolf. I'm headed afk for some football n beers. If I die while away, well, I hope more good comes of it than that MMM lynch. BTW, the Seer has spoken in case anyone's listening. Just sayin...

I mean just look at it. He knows he could die soon, even acknowledges it, then says I'm afk for a while and drops a very ambiguous seer comment.

I don't even think you can call it a claim.

[Luco]

BTW if I'm laying money on it, I wouldn't even take Daven/Baudib/Gabe as the team at 15:1 odds. I've been in this situation a bunch, and I have learned a lot of what appears to be wolfy connections are not. For example, it is possible that I'm right about Baud, and that his behavior regarding Daven, which looks like they could be wolf buddies, is actually something he would ALSO do if Daven isn't a wolf. It doesn't have to be that wolfbaud is protecting Daven but that wolfbaud is just playing a standard managing keep-all-options-open style

As for Daven specifically, does he arrrooo as a villager? Yep. Dude adores doing the wackiest garbage as a villager. It's frustrating as balls

Anyways, the wolf team always makes less sense than it looks like it should

You've been showing some insight into daven but your entire read on baud is vicarious i.e. through his interactions with Daven. Seriously wuf, where have you actually talked about baudib without mentioning daven?

I CBA (can't be arsed) to go back and find whatever game it was where you told everyone to focus on ONE WOLF AT A TIME because these supposed interactions are nearly always tenuous, but from memory it's the one where you rilla and gator were the final three. But it was definitely you who said it, this post I've just quoted you're saying it again, yet time and again you're on baud by way of daven

[Luco]

I mean just look at it. He knows he could die soon, even acknowledges it, then says I'm afk for a while and drops a very ambiguous seer comment.

I don't even think you can call it a claim.

It didn't strike me as a claim when I read it, but my point is that anyone who did think it might be a claim should have rescinded regardless, it's just terrible strategy to plough on with the lynch

[Luco]

That Was the Weakest seer claim I've ever seen. Given the speed of the wagon it doesn't seem legit. Surely he'd of been much clearer if actually the seer. Seemed more like buying time to confer with wolf buddies.

And while we're talking about the speed of the wagon, where's the counterwagon? To quote drew from last game, I can't help but think if key is a wolf then the wolves fucked up their voting strat

[Luco]

Vote Count 2.2

keybored - 5 (keith, JKDS, gabe, rong, wuf)
wuf - 2 (daven, baudib)
BID - 2 (Luco, keybored)
gabe - 1 (dhuber)
JKDS - 1 (BID)
aubrey - 1 (bigred)


8 votes to lynch!

Just under 24hrs to go.

Hoops can you please include non voters as well? It will help us to tally the VC and make sure it's correct.

[baudib]

I was rereading some of last game to see if I could find anything, and I was really looking to see how Keybored responded to pressure. He wasn't really in danger of getting lynched, but one thing I noticed were a few comments about how he had independent thoughts. I didn't think he had independent thoughts, but obviously I knew his role. It occurred to me that the same thing could be happening here, and one of the reasons I was liking him on D1 was he was agreeing with me on a lot of things, specifically lynching Daven.

Look at the Wolves piling on! They smell blood and chomp-chomp. I used this same technique a lot last game as wolf. I'm headed afk for some football n beers. If I die while away, well, I hope more good comes of it than that MMM lynch. BTW, the Seer has spoken in case anyone's listening. Just sayin...

This is Keybored's last post, the one with the supposed claim. It really does not read like a claim to me, because he seems OK with dying. Maybe it was intended to confuse people or to stall, in the hopes that something amazing would happen while he was gone.

I have to think if he were seer he wouldn't be OK with getting lynched, and tbh at this point it feels like anti-spew mode.

He also didn't explain his BID lynch. That said, we probably still have to wait for him to clarify. I don't agree with the reasoning from Keith and Daven that there's no way he'd play seer this way. The guy has never played seer and in the one game where he lived past D2, there wasn't even a seer in the game. So frankly he doesn't have a ton of experience in knowing how a seer should or shouldn't play.

[baudib]

I'm not liking the Keybored wagon one bit. I like a BID lynch less than a gabe lynch, but could switch to BID. The issue here is that Keybored played so well as Wolf last match that he could be a target by Villagers with that as a main reason.

wuf's posts aren't giving me any information, but I still don't like a wuf-lynch any more than a Keybored lynch. I'm dead-set against a baudib lynch as well, same goes for rong. Does anyone want to join me on the gabe wagon?

Dhuber, if you magically got a triple vig, who would you take out?

[dhubermex]

Dhuber, if you magically got a triple vig, who would you take out?

I was in the process of directly answering this question, but am skeptical.

Could this be baud-wolf soliciting a direct, Level 0 answer (from one of the players who's most likely to give it) in order to gauge potential future wagons a known Villager (assuming he's Wolf obv) will likely come up with?

I don't think this is a case of Too Wolfy To Be A Wolf on baud's behalf... either this is a tactic to gain bonafide information as a Wolf from a known Villager or it is a legitimate question coming from a Villager. It's known that I'm on a gabe-lynch at the moment with stated option to switch to BID. It's the "Triple Vig" part that seems suspicious to me, although it's a clear-cut way of asking who I think the three Wolves are as well.

I'm going to go back through baud's posts, but in the meantime, how do other players read the question posted by baudib in #1077? Friend or Foe?

[Keith]

#980

Cuz the wagon stalled Keith. Nobody's buying your story and ppl aren't interested in your rage rants. I get it, your wolf hunt is over today. But have you even tried to find the seer yet? Do something useful or stop wasting posts, as u put it...

#988

Refusing to be baited and wasting my time isn't smug.
In your state of mind, you're just going to micro analyze every word I type.
If I say the sky is blue, you'll find a way to twist that into your mantra.
Then we'll be chasing our tails even longer than we have.

You've bolded me, you've stated your case against me, you've rallied a wagon.
These are all solid WW tactics/procedures that we all expect.

But relentless stalking and negative attitude makes me shut down.
I keep all my posts very neutral in tone (unless joking around).
I only reply to negative emotion (yours) in kind when I feel it's gone too far.

Here's what it'll take to lynch vanillager keybored today:
1 angry misguided fellow villager (Keith)
2-3 wolves with good enuff game willing to expose themselves
4-5 wagon jumping villagers (some lazy, some also misguided)

When that many other ppl start supporting your BS, then I'll take heed and react to their cases.
Until then, I'm going to continue watching the behavior of my wolf pix.
And I'm going to try to uncover the Seer so I can help protect him/her and possibly pickup a crumb.

How about you putting your reads out for us to see, Keith?

#995

looks like i got wuf voting twice ,his vote is on baud and not daven

#1009

^^^ Thanks guys.

My earlier reads had Rong & Keith leaning village but as of now I've gotta move Rong to neutral for his Baudib logic and downgrade Keith to wolf-lean due to his refusal to do anything but tunnel. Also, I'm moving Wuf off deadlock and up to just a wolf-lean; his reasoning has improved a lot recently. JKDS has moved from a wolf-lean to neutral now. Gabe stays on a wolf-lean despite Dhubs opine. So, here's what I'm seeing.

KEYB = Villager (BID - bolding for now)
DHUBER = Villager (Gabe)
BAUDIB = Villager (BID)
LUCO = Villager (BID)
BIGRED = Villager (Aubrey)
DAVEN = Villager (Wuf)

RONG = Neutral (Baudib)
JKDS = Neutral (Keyb)
AUBRY = Neutral (No Vote Yet)

BID = Wolf (JKDS)
GABE = Wolf Leaning (Keyb)
MONSTR = Wolf Leaning (No Vote Yet)
WUF = Wolf Leaning (Baudib)
KEITH = Wolf Leaning (Keyb)

Note: I added the current bolds in parenthesis as a last minute thing to keep Keith from going postal with two separate posts. I find it interesting that my V and W camps are voting opposed. I wouldn't have noticed that otherwise; thx keith.

Oh yeah...RESCIND, LYNCH BID

so #988 he still has me as a misguided fellow villager. my only post after that was correcting the vote count i'd done and an hour and a half after saying that i'm was a villager he now has me leaning wolf again. In the same post , he had changed JKDS from wolf to neutral. Why the obsession with me finding the seer. I have my suspicions , but i sure as hell ain't gonna post who i think it is or even help the wolves narrow down who i think it is.

[Keith]

forgot to say , if by some miracle keybored is the seer, its pretty clear that he didn't look me up else he'd have left me as villager.

[baudib]

No Dhuber, the reason I asked is because I didn't want to sound condescending, as Rong put it.

Alright, I still think you're likely a villager but I don't think your D2 has been that impressive. It seems quite impossible to me that you could be unhappy with all of the wagons. At this point I'd say that sticks out quite a bit.

Go back and review me, and you'll find I was the first to say Gabe was acting really weird. And I started the BID wagon.

As for Gabe, his D2 has been a whole helluva lot better than his D1. Put simply, killing Gabe is the wolves' job.

I will say that the lack of people talking about Gabe is ... palpable.

[Hoopy]

Hoops can you please include non voters as well? It will help us to tally the VC and make sure it's correct.

I've edited that post now.

About 11.5hrs left.

[dhubermex]

To baudib:

The suspicion of your Post #1077 is derived from:

(A) The timing of it... about 12 hours before daytime ends and at a time (if you've monitored my post activity) when I'm likely to be asleep until right before the day ends.

(B) It's somewhat a nod of respect to my recent Wolf reads that I don't believe is fully justified. The ratio of skill:run good on my deductions in the last two games is highly debatable. There's also the fact that I wasn't able to pinpoint Keybored as a Wolf last match until he tried some form of flattery.

(C) I've openly stated that I'm having issues reading Bad guys so far this match. While Post #1077 has an equal chance of being a genuine question from a Villager standpoint, it also reeks when considered from an assumption that you're a Wolf. I can see a Den convo involving wanting to gain Level 0 information from me on who I believe are most likely to be Wolves, and then base an upcoming nighttime decision partly on that intel.

I realize my suspicions are highly self-absorbed (something I've criticized about MMM's gameplay). Therefore I'd rather wait for the European's to post their opinions before acting, perhaps irrationally, on my suspicions. I was going to go to sleep about now, but I've got some work to do so will do that and hope for more replies in the next couple of hours.

[Luco]

I was in the process of directly answering this question, but am skeptical.

Could this be baud-wolf soliciting a direct, Level 0 answer (from one of the players who's most likely to give it) in order to gauge potential future wagons a known Villager (assuming he's Wolf obv) will likely come up with?

I don't think this is a case of Too Wolfy To Be A Wolf on baud's behalf... either this is a tactic to gain bonafide information as a Wolf from a known Villager or it is a legitimate question coming from a Villager. It's known that I'm on a gabe-lynch at the moment with stated option to switch to BID. It's the "Triple Vig" part that seems suspicious to me, although it's a clear-cut way of asking who I think the three Wolves are as well.

I'm going to go back through baud's posts, but in the meantime, how do other players read the question posted by baudib in #1077? Friend or Foe?

I like your answer. Trouble is, you're not easily swayed from your opinions so if you name any villagers in the three the wolves would almost certainly try to leverage it. Something to consider should you choose to reply

FWIW I still trust baudib and think you should too, I tone cleared him quite early and his balance of posts is overwhemingly villager. And I know I'm coming off the back of my worst game ever (literally I've never gone 0/3 in wolves before, ever) but I still have to trust my gut here.

[Luco]

Dhuber, if you magically got a triple vig, who would you take out?

Hang on, Baud why didn't you say quadruple vig?

[baudib]

Dhuber, I'll say this. If I were a wolf, I could pick that post of yours apart quite easily. Just like I could have gone after your "yet another vanilla" comment again, but didn't.

If you object to the wagons, you could give more detail as to why you object to them. If you think they're villager wagons, then say
why.

Otherwise, it has the faintest whiff of TMI.

[baudib]

Hang on, Baud why didn't you say quadruple vig?

there's 3 wolves??

[baudib]

Oh yeah, I keep forgetting there's a Cursed. But if we were to kill the 3 wolves, we win.

[baudib]

Actually, how does Cursed count as far as our win condition?

If it's 3-3-1, do the wolves win? Or if it's 1-1-1?

[baudib]

I had to go back to the signup thread.

OK 1-1-1 has to be an automatic win for the wolves, because at that point the wolf could just openly declare he's a wolf and the Cursed will vote with him no matter what.

But at 3-3-1 an unconverted Cursed still counts as a villager?

[dhubermex]

Dhuber, I'll say this. If I were a wolf, I could pick that post of yours apart quite easily. Just like I could have gone after your "yet another vanilla" comment again, but didn't.

If you object to the wagons, you could give more detail as to why you object to them. If you think they're villager wagons, then say
why.

Otherwise, it has the faintest whiff of TMI.

Meh, no worries about whether you or someone else chooses to easily pick apart any of my posts. There's enough already provided in my posts to make it pretty clear that I'm a Villager, and there are decisions that can be made mid-game (such as what happened last match) that can make it almost a lock which side I'm on. I'm not worried about it and if the Wolves are able to distract the remaining players again then well played.

If you didn't go after my "Vanilla Villager" "yet another" post then that's for one of two reasons: (A) You're a Villager who believed I'm a Villager, or (B) You're a Wolf who knows I'm a Villager and wanted to wait for a correct opportunity to use me a mislynch bait. In your words, a vote to lynch me early game was "sketchy" and it's not like others didn't point out my VV claim, so your reasoning has to be one of the two listed above.

As for Keybored, yes I believe he's a Villager. And no, I don't believe he was claiming to be the Seer in that post of his. That's not the way I read it. The "has spoken" part I believe he is referring to a post by another player who he believes gives an obvious hint that he might be the Seer.

I believe Keybored was intrigued (one of the few players here who I think could be intrigued/influenced by my playing style) at the fact that I began openly listing people who I would work with last match, and is attempting to incorporate that into a playing style for this game (hence his posts early game trying to form alliances).

My Day #2 posting is due to weekend activities away from the boards. It's the best point I believe Keith has brought up this whole match (aside from the need to immediately lynch MMM, obviously)... decreased activity generally is not role-indicative.

Finally, please add "TMI" to Werewolf Slang/Abbreviations/Terms.

[Luco]

Baudib you said this D1

Dhuber, here's the thing. There are 4 players we want to kill...

And now you're down to three. It looks like a cursed POV slip to me, and while your #1087 sounds natural enough it took you eight minutes to say it which muddies it somewhat.

[baudib]

Dhuber, your confidence in the belief that everyone can see you're a villager in fact makes you very villagery. But last game should be an example of how you can sometimes get yourself in trouble. That earlier post made me cringe.

Also, Gabe getting lynched after lynching 2 wolves in 2 days how easy it is for villager paranoia to lead them astray. I was in a game where the wolves poisoned the most lock-clear villager 2 straight days (the village poisoner was dead) and he still get mislynched at must-lynch.

Decreased activity generally IS role-indicative. Real life things happen all the time but slanking is the easiest way for wolves to slide by. The idea that has arisen this game that decreased activity is a villager tell is kinda world turned upside down, even if it might be true for a couple of people.

And, OMG, TMI is a totally well known acronym outside of WW, FFS!

[dhubermex]

TMI = Too Much Information then?

[baudib]

Baudib you said this D1



And now you're down to three. It looks like a cursed POV slip to me, and while your #1087 sounds natural enough it took you eight minutes to say it which muddies it somewhat.

About the time Daven started ranting about Ong or MMM being Cursed I realized I had forgotten about the Cursed, I think there's a post I said it. At that point I decided that finding the Cursed should really be the wolves' problem until the night actions indicate that the conversion took place.

[dhubermex]

Decreased activity generally IS role-indicative.

This may be true for that "hellhole" as wuf described it... I'm not so sure about here though.

[baudib]

If Rilla were here he'd say the opposite I think. I've been thinking about that over the weekend.

as far as the hellhole, I just died 30 minutes into a new game where I had a cool role. awesome.

[baudib]

I'm pretty freaking rustled actually. I spent 3 hours this morning studying players in the game and my role was awesome.

at least i won't be multi-tabling I guess.

[Luco]

Baud you mean this?

So Daven just reeks of agenda IMO. I have to be honest, I said MMM has by far the most Cursed equity but I haven't actually thought about who else could be Cursed.

Villagers out there, how much Cursed hunting have you been done? I haven't thought about it because wolves/Cursed are essentially the same. Also, I sent Wufwugy $19.99 in Paypal for his Villaging For Dummies book, and it says that we should lunch the wolfiest players. Solid advice, worth the money, would read again.



Daven is focused on finding people who are could be villagers with Cursed equity, I find that fascinating. How about we go for wolves?




Did you see that like 4-5 other people have made strong comments that MMM is probably a villager? That includes someone who is actually voting for MMM. It's interesting that you single out Monstr when Gabe did the same thing without stating any reasons for why you think Monstr is wolfy. This is so unlike your villager game, Daven.



The Village Coalition has considered Dhuber's use of the word "vanilla" and has officially decreed "whatever." More to the point, "OMG HE SAID VANILLA" is so 40 hours ago. For someone who wants to kill MMM just so we won't be debating him, you seem awfully interested in keeping alive a debate that was over a long time ago.

But your continued push of one of the more obvious villagers in the game has been duly noted.

You stated in this post that wolves / cursed are essentially the same and I can't find any posts where you've indicated a change in that opinion.

[baudib]

oh come on Luco, seriously.

They are the same in a sense in that you look for non-villagers but it clearly says in that post that Daven thinking so much about the Cursed is fishy and we should just find wolves instead.

[baudib]

I mean the ONLY reason I thought MMM was a semi-reasonable wagon was because he had Cursed equity (i.e., i'm not the Cursed). and after he was dead everyone stopped talking about the Cursed.

and anyway, yes, if you shoot 3 wolves we will win.

[Luco]

oh come on Luco, seriously.

They are the same in a sense in that you look for non-villagers but it clearly says in that post that Daven thinking so much about the Cursed is fishy and we should just find wolves instead.

Yeah ok, it does say that. And I do remember agreeing with the thrust of that post at the time.

But can you see how after you saying there's 4 wolves and that wolves/cursed are essentially the same, that I would have expected you to say 4 vig shots not three?

[baudib]

yeah I can see that, you think you got a gotcha. but I don't believe in gotchas. plus to be honest I forgot the number of baddies in the game is 4, I haven't slept, I was legitimately also reading up on the other game.

Now I'm doubly rustled. If it makes anyone feel better, I recommend the seer look me up immediately after the Cursed conversion (if you want to waste a lookup).

The reason I asked Dhuber the question was because it seemed like he only wanted to kill 1 player in the whole game.

[baudib]

Luco, you might be a genius. I just had an idea about the Cursed.

But I'm saving it for later. That's your punishment.

[Luco]

Baudib I'm not confident on this, but I certainly wasn't going to show it while I pressed you. You've answered well enough imo so I won't push any further

[baudib]

Whew, got Luco fooled, that was easy.

[Luco]

Whew, got Luco fooled, that was easy.

Lol you fucker

[baudib]

I'm not leveling, note the sarcasm smilie.

there's 1 player who might actually play Cursed the way he/she is playing.

[Luco]

oh come on Luco, seriously.

They are the same in a sense in that you look for non-villagers but it clearly says in that post that Daven thinking so much about the Cursed is fishy and we should just find wolves instead.

But naw, your initial 'there's three wolves?' plus this post have a good tone to them.

[baudib]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...9&postcount=76

look at this shit. showing up early in the thread probably wasn't a good idea.

[Luco]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...9&postcount=76

look at this shit. showing up early in the thread probably wasn't a good idea.

"Baudib had not chosen a role yet" lol

[Luco]

Baudib I wanted to ask what you thought of jkds this game but you mentioned you need sleep, so it can wait if you want

[gabe]

OK 1-1-1 has to be an automatic win for the wolves, because at that point the wolf could just openly declare he's a wolf and the Cursed will vote with him no matter what.

The villager should say that they are the wolf.

That's actually a pretty cool scenario. Spend all game convincing everyone you are a villager then on the last day try to convince them you were actually a wolf all along

[gabe]

Never mind that. I guess the real solution is for the Cursed to self lynch at 1-1-1.

[Hoopy]

But at 3-3-1 an unconverted Cursed still counts as a villager?

This is true

[JKDS]

Couple of games back drew claimed angel on the ropes and I called BS, but still rescinded. Turns out he was legit.

If there's a special claim of any sort, you snap rescind no matter how fishy you think it is.

You of all people should know better. Remember the star wars game where the village lynched Luke Skywalker D1?

You were a villager that game. So was rong. He's rescinded, why haven't you? You're not this stupid, wolfy as fuck.

That game was four years ago, and the logic was flawed. It applies to lynching anyone in a seer game, not just the seer. Look, lets go with Keith.

1) Lynch kieth, he be wolfing. We celebrate
2)Lynch kieht, he villaging, we are behind
3) Wait, he wolfing, seer looks him up and we lynch him with perfect info
4) Wait, he villaging, seer looks him up and we have a confirmed village

So lynching keith is bad. Just like lynching a wolfy claimed seer is bad.

The whole reasoning stems from the idea that lynching with perfect info is better than lynching with imperfect, which is obv. But it goes too far. It fails to weigh the options, and give appropriate value to each outcome.

It doesn't look like a seer claim to me because he's caled himself vanillager more than once this game and he was telling keith to 'find the seer' before that post. But anyone who thought he was claiming seer but hasn't rescinded is wolfy or stupid.

You said it yourself, the claim is incredibly unbelievable. As epic as everyone thought keybored's wolf game was last game, it was actually pretty simplistic and people should have been able to spot it if they didnt have their eyes closed. The flavor of the month voting was one giant red flag, and an awfully newbie thing to do. I can easily see key failing at, what i think, is his first fake out as a wolf.

****

Heres a question though. I didnt remember that game, actually. Because it was 4 years ago, in 2010. It was a short, quick game too, only lasting about 300 posts. You werent actually in it, either. How do you remember such a short, unimpactful game from so long ago, that you werent even a participant in?

[Keith]

JKDS - i 'm pretty sure that BID was angel in the game courtie pawned the wolves back in the spring/early summer and thats the game luco was referring to.BID was such an epic angel that he didn't bother sending in a couple of protects. Also lol at spelling /misspelling my name 3 ways in 3 lines .

[Keith]

found it http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ad-197341.html

[JKDS]

Keith is a hard name to spell.

But no, theres no questioning that luco was referring to the hoth game. He took a quote from it, from me, and I wasnt in whatever game you linked.

[Keith]

i think he was talking about both games , the one where BID was the angel was the one i pointed to and the starwars one was 4 years ago that you referred to.

[Luco]

That game was four years ago, and the logic was flawed. It applies to lynching anyone in a seer game, not just the seer. Look, lets go with Keith.

1) Lynch kieth, he be wolfing. We celebrate
2)Lynch kieht, he villaging, we are behind
3) Wait, he wolfing, seer looks him up and we lynch him with perfect info
4) Wait, he villaging, seer looks him up and we have a confirmed village

So lynching keith is bad. Just like lynching a wolfy claimed seer is bad.

The whole reasoning stems from the idea that lynching with perfect info is better than lynching with imperfect, which is obv. But it goes too far. It fails to weigh the options, and give appropriate value to each outcome.



You said it yourself, the claim is incredibly unbelievable. As epic as everyone thought keybored's wolf game was last game, it was actually pretty simplistic and people should have been able to spot it if they didnt have their eyes closed. The flavor of the month voting was one giant red flag, and an awfully newbie thing to do. I can easily see key failing at, what i think, is his first fake out as a wolf.

****

Heres a question though. I didnt remember that game, actually. Because it was 4 years ago, in 2010. It was a short, quick game too, only lasting about 300 posts. You werent actually in it, either. How do you remember such a short, unimpactful game from so long ago, that you werent even a participant in?

im on mobile but
- its keith dude. K-e-i-t-h
- lynching anyone in a seer game is a risk, sure. but vs a claim the risks go way up
- it was a misclick a few days back that brought me to the page with the hoth game on it, and my first thought was 'wtf how can any game end in less than 300 posts' so i read it. Thats why your sound advice was still fresh in my head
- yeah actually 4 years is quite a long time, but for me its only been a few days.
-yes i referred to two different games, sorry if there was confusion

basically,
- saying x has claimed seer and i call bs is fine
- saying x has claimed seer and i call bs so lets lynch him is terrible, as evidenced by two different games

Oh and I didnt say his claim was unbelievable i said it was unlikely that he was claiming seer at all given the context.

[JKDS]

Ah, I see it now.

Anyway, where is keybored? He claimed, partyd with friends, and has been gone almost 24 hours now. Deadline is coming. I want a response, and I want look ups.

[rong]

Where the Hell is he? Who drops shit like that and goes awol.

[JKDS]

- lynching anyone in a seer game is a risk, sure. but vs a claim the risks go way up

Oh and I didnt say his claim was unbelievable i said it was unlikely that he was claiming seer at all given the context.

The risk of lynching a seer is only part of the equation though. We're analyzing the risk of lynching the seer vs gain of lynching a wolf (which, as we have seen, has immense value in finding his buddies). The risk is also inversely proportional to the gain. No one would be against the lynch of someone who arroo'd, and then claimed seer. Thats because the risk is so low, and the gain so high. This is a similar case.

And your reasoning for not thinking he claimed was in part because he said he was a vanillager a few times, and was concerned with finding the seer. That is evidence against him being the seer, so you thought he was saying something else. But if it is a claim, which it is, then it is still evidence against him being the seer, and makes his claim unbelievable.

[Hoopy]

5 hours to go.

Vote Count 2.2

keybored - 4 (keith, JKDS, gabe, wuf)
wuf - 2 (daven, baudib)
JKDS - 2 (BID, Luco)
BID - 1 keybored)
gabe - 1 (dhuber)
aubrey - 1 (bigred)

No vote - (aubrey, monstrman, rong)

8 votes to lynch!