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 Originally Posted by Eric
Ok, this validates my suspicion. It felt like I made a mistake. It isn't a huge mistake on an individual hand but it adds up in the long run so this is good info.
I was surprised the margin of difference in outcomes was so thin. I think this is partly due to the extremely small number of foul cards left in the deck (only 1 each of A, K, 3).
 Originally Posted by Eric
I guess the lesson learned is to set blanks mid instead of top when we're in danger of fouling because of a weak hand in back.
You may be right. Setting the T in the mid is better, because while it increases (doubles) the number of potential foul cards hero can draw, it also increases the number of foul cards hero must draw (from 2 to all 3) to be forced to play a foul.
I suspect the lesson is to keep your options open as much as possible.
When you play the T to the mid, you keep both the top and mid incomplete (2 cards up top, 4 cards in the mid.) This means that you aren't as likely to be forced into a bad play. It's the option of playing a K to the mid or an { A, 3 } to the top that adds power to Hero's position going into the final draw.
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