Opinions on flop check & turn raise

[surviva316]

I didn't feel like I could bet KK for 3 streets vs this villain and I'd get more value from his PP's and any turned J Q K by betting the turn and river.

Villain has played 10 pots, only 4 of which he raised, and only one of which he opened from LP. There's a very decent chance he's at least two of: 1) bad, 2) passive and/or 3) positionally unaware. We might be assuming too much to think we're getting fat value betting 3 streets here, but we're definitely assuming too much if we think he 3bs overpairs preflop, or doesn't overcommit with 8x, or doesn't call a street with good overcards.

Anyway, even putting that aside, I think we'd agree that you're getting at least 2 streets of value here, and it's much better to get those streets of value while there are still cards to come (hand protection is very valuable on this board, and your hand is better disguised while there are still draws in your range), so there needs to be a compelling reason for the flop to not be one of those streets.

Really the only reason it isn't going to be better to bet the flop is so that you can protect your flop checking range. This is really only a reasonable consideration if villain is capable of playing back at weak ranges and shit, and as I pointed out above, I think it's more likely villain is a corpse than it is that he's playing aggressive poker on the 3rd level.

Besides, you have to weigh strengthening your flop betting range against weakening your flop betting/barrelling range. KK is an extremely important part of your HJ opening range (though, given your PF sizing, maybe you don't play that wide of a range here), and checking it back on an 8-high flop is going to have severe repercussions on your range. Maybe there are good range strategies that involve checking back KK--I don't know, I'm not nearly good enough at the game to comment on that--but those strategies would have to account for the lack of a crucial overpair in your barreling range, and it doesn't look like your thought process has gone that deep.

As for the turn raise, I don't really know. It seems good if we think villain is more prone to being a station than he is to aggression (this is a pretty disastrous play if villain plays aggressive against perceived unbalanced/pretty-much-capped ranges), but again, if he's more cally than he is aggressive, then we shoulda just bet the flop in the first place.

Oh, and hey Sup3rM4n. Long time, no see.

[seven-deuce]

Yeah I agree betting flop is a lot better than checking. donks gonna donk.

As for the turn raise, I don't really know. It seems good if we think villain is more prone to being a station than he is to aggression (this is a pretty disastrous play if villain plays aggressive against perceived unbalanced/pretty-much-capped ranges), but again, if he's more cally than he is aggressive, then we shoulda just bet the flop in the first place.

@bold - is this not exactly what we want? We want villain to be shovelling money into the pot when we're strong and not putting money in when we're weak. So, if we know he likes to attack perceived capped ranges and he's raising any pair+draw and FD's for example on the turn expecting to get a tonne of folds because we checked the flop, that seems like mission accomplished to me. (However this flop is too wet to check, but on a slightly less connected flop, if we had a solid read that's how he likes to play, raising the turn would make a tonne of sense to me) I could be wrong though.

Anyway, thanks for the reply. Sometimes I do stupid shit a the poker table.