Anonymous Werewolf Game Thread

[moarcowbell]

We've been instructed in the Dead Thread that the game is over and it's okay to rejoin the thread.

I thoroughly enjoyed the anon format much more than I thought I would... it certainly made things interesting.

Thanks to BID & DIB for doing a great job modding the match and congratulations to the Village!

-dhubermex/moarcowbell

[baudib]

you know the whole time i was worried that agua was indeed a wolf, because ive yet to play a game where the top several most likely and logical outcomes are the actual outcomes. it's always some major aberration

Don't take this the wrong way. It's awesome to have perfect info.

Most of the time this game, I thought, "jesus the wolves are just cooked." And 4-5 times you would say something that could give them a spark of hope. I think Gaston had 1 episode of this as well, with Duck.

every time you scaled back your thinking you were getting closer to the mark.

We should have played it out to see how far Agua could go.

[baudib]

Anyone argue with Taint for MVP?

Gator gets 1 guess on his identity.

[duck]

agua was gonna get lynched first out of the three of us lol

cmon man mine and wuf's reactions to the claims are village as fuck

it was clear to me that wuf was fistpumping because he thought me and pelion were wolves

that's obviously not a wolf reaction

and i'm duck, and ducks don't get lynched

[lynchpelion]

I thought Taint was keith.

[baudib]

no, ok 2 guesses.

[Gaston]

So, duck was bullshiting stuff against me, because he thought my alterego would know his game better after a year away from ftr.

Way to screw me over duck

[ducksucks]

Don't take this the wrong way. It's awesome to have perfect info.

Most of the time this game, I thought, "jesus the wolves are just cooked." And 4-5 times you would say something that could give them a spark of hope. I think Gaston had 1 episode of this as well, with Duck.

every time you scaled back your thinking you were getting closer to the mark.

We should have played it out to see how far Agua could go.

The irony is that this is by far the best I've played. By a lot. Just like with poker, results don't matter in WW, but theory. If in the next game, we're in the exact same spot, I would make the exact same points, and we would likely be in the 99% of the time that those points about Gravy/Agua were correct. This is the first game we've had in years where the players in the Gravy/Agua situation have been wolves

[duck]

anyway nighty night

thanks for modding baudib and drew, it's been a fun and interesting game

modkills were funny as shit

[duck]

So, duck was bullshiting stuff against me, because he thought my alterego would know his game better after a year away from ftr.

Way to screw me over duck

i wasn't bullshitting, i thought you were wolfy as fuck

[lynchpelion]

no, ok 2 guesses.

got no clue.

[duck]

here's my thought process...

gaston is obviously jkds
wft why is jkds not looking for reasons i'm a villager
jkds would try to balance that shit out because jkds likes owning ongbonga
god i must have dropped six million villager hints
why isn't jkds looking for them
oooh i'm having a duck brainwave
wait for it
yup
gaston is a wolf

[duck]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[moarcowbell]

My guess on Taint is that he's GrayFoxxxx. It was when he directly told me to "read the fucking thread" that I assumed he was strong Villager, had likely deciphered something and worth a night move.

[baudib]

Identities

Spoiler: Show

Quadrospazz = Hoopy
Duck = Ong
Ducksucks = Wufwugy
Gaston = JKDS
Taint = Luco
Shoryuken = Rong
Ciggie = Rilla
DarkWingDuck = Grayfoxxx
Moarcowbell = dhuber
Lynchpelion = Gator
AznChicks = Your Mom
Buck Nekid = Keybored
Aguapurificada = Eric
Gravyhog = Gabe
Alargeprimate = Galapagos

[baudib]

The irony is that this is by far the best I've played. By a lot. Just like with poker, results don't matter in WW, but theory. If in the next game, we're in the exact same spot, I would make the exact same points, and we would likely be in the 99% of the time that those points about Gravy/Agua were correct. This is the first game we've had in years where the players in the Gravy/Agua situation have been wolves

I actually somewhat agree with you...as hilarious as it was.

I think the actual wolves were by far the wolfiest either in their logic, lack of content or voting patterns. There were a couple of villagers with wolfy voting patterns as well, but their posting was basically pristine. Any reasons you actually had to lynch Shoryuken or to vig Moarcowbell could easily be applied to Agua, who looked as if he was never going to make a pro-village post.


I thought Pelion actually did a perfectly fine job of wolfin' but he was drawing dead after EOD1.

[GatorJH]

I'm back bitches!!

[GatorJH]

how did the game go? Who won? Bigred?

[wufwugy]

all of our moms won!!

[wufwugy]

yessssssss i was right about cig being rilla. wooooooo. spotted that shit immediately

fucking luco. he's always been good tho so it shouldnt be a surprise

rong is the honorary bugrud

im glad to see gray and keybored play. surprised to see galapogos play. the last time he did that he afk'd harder than kiwimark

[dhubermex]

Epic Dead Thread too.

I notice Keybored hasn't been back since. WW can be an emotional game and I understand how easy it is for something to come off as personal even when it isn't.

For what it's worth, from experience I can attest that modding a match is a LOT of work and the load can sneak up on a mod at any moment. Props to BID/DIB for doing the great job they did. My attitude toward a successful WW match is that the mod's mod & the player's play. It's less complicated that way and we all have to do our part to let the mod(s) make decisions that they deem necessary, as they're the only ones dealing with complete information (aside from Luco apparently).

Hopefully we can do this soon again. Keybored... I want you back whenever you're ready. You're an obvious valuable poster who enjoys being here... who knows, next time you might mod. I'd offer to temporarily change DIB's avatar to a memorable Dallas Cowboys moment, but unfortunately I'd have to go back two decades to do so.

Anyway, we have a close-knit group here at FTR. I'm just learning the ropes myself, but there's definitely something special here with our vets and contributions from many who are willing to take the time to chime-in on any given topic. Hug it out?

[baudib]

yeah Keybored, come back. I'll probably not be modding again in the near future

-- While I think it was justified given some sort of precedence, having the angel/wolves' target revealed, thus confirming a villager, is such a game-breaking occurrence I think we should just not reveal in the future. In this case, with the angel also dying, the wolves would theoretically still have a slight chance of winning. Oftentimes, the power of specials is not in what they do but in being able to claim.

-- I'm still unsure on whether or not night chatter is better for one side or not,but it is definitely fun for the game. I guess that's up to each individual mod.

[baudib]

i challenge the next group of wolves to pull off a w/w pissing match a la Gaston/Duck or Wuf/Baud from last game. Seems these things are always V/V

[JKDS]

They almost always are. But its really hard for the two involved to see it, and its harder when theyre leveling themselves based on each others rep. (Ya, i did it too ong lol)

BTW, I thought this was a fun game. I felt like the modkilling was very unforgiving, however, it was also necessary to give the wolves a chance here. It made the game fun, in all honesty. I mean, lets get real...this is an anon game where everyone is fooling around; fuck it if the mod cant join in the shenanigans.

Also, I felt like ppl had some good strategies to disguise themselves. I cant help myself but to post a billion times, and quintuple post at that. But bravo to those that were successfully sneaky

Taint was prob mvp villager. Gator was mvp overall tho i think.

[dhubermex]

i challenge the next group of wolves to pull off a w/w pissing match a la Gaston/Duck or Wuf/Baud from last game. Seems these things are always V/V

Haha... I'd like to see triple action between wuf/Ong/baudib in this scenario. Would make for a very entertaining match!

[Taint]

be honest, did anyone ID me?

[baudib]

JKDS hope you are back for good.

Taint, no one got you correct AFAIK. In my brief stint I thought you might have been Rilla -- you had that pure no b.s. tone.

[baudib]

I felt like the modkilling was very unforgiving, however, it was also necessary to give the wolves a chance here.

I didn't think I would be modkilled but I agreed with it.

The way that the Drew slip up went down...well, you could see that I was obviously a lock villager. And your reaction to it seemed super villager...like I was 99% you were villager (up from say 85% before that). So it was ultimately good for balance.

[aguapurificada]

Yeah, that was fun. Sorry to the other wolves, this was only my second time playing the game and I've been a wolf both times. Still, it is starting to make more sense - something new is learned each time.

[baudib]

post-game note:
as far as I could tell, Quad didn't leave any sort of clue as to his n1 lookup. My recollection was that he left a totally vague read on DWD.

I guess he wasn't a likely candidate to be eaten, and I think his overall plan to stay hidden was very good. But he could have been shot by the vig on n2.

What were your thoughts on that, Quad?

[aguapurificada]

Oh, and if that wasn't clear then I'll say it differently: I officially concede as the last wolf

[Luco]

From dead thread:

"The wolves are complaining that I revealed their target. But I am pretty sure that the angel protected player has been revealed before. Thoughts on this?"

I wouldn't have revealed, simply because things were already stacked against the wolfies at that point.

[Luco]

Gator what made you think I was seer? I thought I dropped a couple of deliberate crumbs but did you spot them? (mentioning the special roles early, also steering towards you and quadro but not pushing you directly)

[Luco]

Those D2 late votes from cigbutt and agua were wolfy as fuck (assuming lynchpelion was a wolf). But I would still have lynched cig first 11 times out of 10, I knew he was rilla and rilla going quiet in mid-late game is a massive wolf tell

Rilla, it was the use of 'word-vomit' that gave you away...

[Luco]

My guess on Taint is that he's GrayFoxxxx. It was when he directly told me to "read the fucking thread" that I assumed he was strong Villager, had likely deciphered something and worth a night move.

Thanks a bunch for the save man! Your posts were so neat and tidy that it was making me nervous, I basically had the 2 wolves in pelion, cowbell, cig, agua by that point and you were #2

[Luco]

The irony is that this is by far the best I've played. By a lot. Just like with poker, results don't matter in WW, but theory. If in the next game, we're in the exact same spot, I would make the exact same points, and we would likely be in the 99% of the time that those points about Gravy/Agua were correct. This is the first game we've had in years where the players in the Gravy/Agua situation have been wolves

Yeah you were rock solid this game wuf, I don't think I've ever agreed with you so much. When have we ever lined up two wolves like that D1?

[Luco]

Oh, and if that wasn't clear then I'll say it differently: I officially concede as the last wolf

I hope you draw villager next time Eric you poor bastard

[Luco]

I've been running the numbers and the village has this game won because of Taint's confirmation.

I'm the seer.

DarkWingDuck (N1) is a confirmed villager.

lynchpelion (N2) is a wolf.

Taint is also confirmed by being saved by the angel.

This gives us 4 known people out of 8.

Vig can out to give us known persons > unknown persons which gives us the win.

Awesome, I had you ID'd as hoopy and as villager but tried not to give it away too much in case you were special.

All that 'exactly one wolf in quad / pelion' stuff was basically me trying to get pelion lynched, you came out strong on D2 imo

[baudib]

Eric: It is a big problem that you have never experienced the game as a villager, so you don't know how to replicate that as a wolf. What I tried to do as a wolf, and I think if you check the last game, what Scourrge did, was to play up the "hey i'm new not sure how helpful this is, but this is how I see it..."

If you then just make comments that come across as your reads on the situation "I think Taint is a definitely a villager" "not sure what to make of what Gravy said here..." and elaborate a bit it will go a long way. Even saying simple basic stuff like, "I'm a villager" "we need to focus on players X, Y and Z" will reassure people a bit.

the problem that wolves face, and wolfin' is definitely harder than villaging, although, in my case, I probably spew way too much as a villager...is that you're not looking to "solve" the game, the way villagers are. And, you are lying. It's hard to fake a "game-solving" mentality (wolves tend to look opportunistic/agenda-driven) and it is difficult for most people to lie.

In games I've played, here and elsewhere, I've been a wolf quite a bit and I've been able to manage a couple of super villagery posts as a wolf....as a villager I come across as erratic. This probably says something weird about my personality.

[Luco]

Epic Dead Thread too.

I notice Keybored hasn't been back since. WW can be an emotional game and I understand how easy it is for something to come off as personal even when it isn't.

For what it's worth, from experience I can attest that modding a match is a LOT of work and the load can sneak up on a mod at any moment. Props to BID/DIB for doing the great job they did. My attitude toward a successful WW match is that the mod's mod & the player's play. It's less complicated that way and we all have to do our part to let the mod(s) make decisions that they deem necessary, as they're the only ones dealing with complete information (aside from Luco apparently).

Hopefully we can do this soon again. Keybored... I want you back whenever you're ready. You're an obvious valuable poster who enjoys being here... who knows, next time you might mod. I'd offer to temporarily change DIB's avatar to a memorable Dallas Cowboys moment, but unfortunately I'd have to go back two decades to do so.

Anyway, we have a close-knit group here at FTR. I'm just learning the ropes myself, but there's definitely something special here with our vets and contributions from many who are willing to take the time to chime-in on any given topic. Hug it out?

Rilla's acerbic persona was getting on peoples tits this game but poor keybored took it to heart. I also hope he plays again

[Luco]

OH! Thanks to baudib and drew for modding what must have been a very tricky game to mod. Drew, how's the head?

[baudib]

Yeah you were rock solid this game wuf, I don't think I've ever agreed with you so much. When have we ever lined up two wolves like that D1?

D1 was like textbook village play (if you ignore whatever the fuck I did). So many people came out super strong with their game-solving faces on. Total turnaround from last game, which may be due in large part to me being largely absent and having you and JKDS and Gala on the village.

I thought everyone on the village made solid contributions that day, maybe Ong being the best other than his tiny slip-up on backing off Gravy. But he really did hone right on on Gravy at the start.

[Luco]

Baudib you have a tricky style, it reminds me of this scene from me myself and irene



Don't change though, shit's awesome. I wish you were around to see the hulkamania style wuf, he was the best.persona.ever.

[quadrospazz]

post-game note:
as far as I could tell, Quad didn't leave any sort of clue as to his n1 lookup. My recollection was that he left a totally vague read on DWD.

I guess he wasn't a likely candidate to be eaten, and I think his overall plan to stay hidden was very good. But he could have been shot by the vig on n2.

What were your thoughts on that, Quad?

Yeah I couldn't see a way to hint at DarkWingDuck being a villager because of how little he'd given away. Any sudden switch of view might look specially. So I gambled on being alive for the next next day.

Vig shot was a risk, thought duck was a more likely target unless he happened to be the vig (bye bye me).

[Hoopy]

Awesome, I had you ID'd as hoopy and as villager but tried not to give it away too much in case you were special.

All that 'exactly one wolf in quad / pelion' stuff was basically me trying to get pelion lynched, you came out strong on D2 imo

Heh I thought it was pretty obvious who I was.

When ong came after me on D2 I knew that I'd have to start participating more or be lynched, him pointing out that I never mentioned gravy had me all "I don't like where this is going".

[Luco]

i challenge the next group of wolves to pull off a w/w pissing match a la Gaston/Duck or Wuf/Baud from last game. Seems these things are always V/V

This is the best growl on growl I've seen: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es-196990.html

It was

Spoiler: Show

gabe and keith d1 and it was kinda an accident

[a500lbgorilla]

Rilla's acerbic persona was getting on peoples tits this game but poor keybored took it to heart. I also hope he plays again

Yeah, sorry about that Keybored. My thinking was that if I put little barbs in every post and tried to make every topic heated and consequential it would be that much more taxing for the wolves to participate and easier for me to read.

If you've read A Song of Ice and Fire there's a quote when talking about Tywin Lannister where one guy who failed to capture a rebel leader hidden in a town said something like, "Not even Tywin Lannister himself could have got him." "No, Tywin would have burned down the whole city." I was trying to Tywin Lannister it.

[duck]

rilla's method was a little bit of a shock... i think because it's anon then it's very difficult to know if it's someone trying to be funny, a strategy, or just someone being an arsehole

it did occur to me that ciggie was vig, i figured it's difficult for a non-vig to be that abrasive

i don't think it's a great method though because it didn't take long before he kind of got brushed to one side... he's town, who gives a fuck... he became isolated and as such his strategy to try and get reads off people backfired

still, i found him amusing

[baudib]

I really love Rilla's style in every game I've seen TBH, I don't think I could ever do it but he's someone I always want on my team.

[duck]

oh yeah the confirmation of the angel save - that was probably a mistake

i mean there's nothing wrong with it, but you must have known that doing that would lock the game for the village

in the interests of keeping the game alive, i'd default to less information on this occasion, even if i noted in my game set up file that i was going to explain night actions

the precedent hadn't been set and you could've just said wolf kill failed, without explaining who and why

still, i think a wolf team of pelion and agua were fucked

[duck]

That puts me tied with Gaston and since I know I am a villager an he is still toward the top of my list I will go back to a lynch gaston

this post couldn't be any more gator

wagon observation, villager claim, "i will go back to a...", vote

[baudib]

One thing I want to point out, and I think it is a possibly a serious strategic error, probably the only one the village made and the thing that kept it from being basically a clean sweep:

Gravy flipping wolf and showing no interest in self-preservation by voting his counterwagon should not clear Agua. In fact, the reluctance of both to vote the other should probably give indication that it was possibly w/w wagons.

This is not always going to be the case, of course. If a wolf is one of the leading wagons, if he makes a vigorous case for the other wagon, this can of course save him, and anything can happen the next day. And wolves do occasionally bus other wolves (I've been forced to use this strategy quite a bit in my other games -- I had one game where me and the other wolf in a 9-man game were the wagons on D1, we bussed each other and I won it, sick brag).

The problem is that when a wolf fights to get the other guy lynched, but dies a wolf anyway, it can create a basically confirmed villager.

I think one of the wolves voting the other is the most +EV line for the wolves; the third wolf has the toughest choice.

[GatorJH]

Gator what made you think I was seer? I thought I dropped a couple of deliberate crumbs but did you spot them? (mentioning the special roles early, also steering towards you and quadro but not pushing you directly)

You just seemed to find even the smallest thing and point out how that could make me a wolf, but you weren't doing that with everyone. And even with that you didn't jump right out and say I should be lynched so I figured you had to have looked me up.

If you did it on purpose as cover for the real seer then you did an excellent job.

[OngBonga]

the moral of the story is... when wuf says so and so is never a wolf here, ignore him.

[Luco]

the moral of the story is... when wuf says so and so is never a wolf here, ignore him.

If Gravy is a wolf, it means he has been leading in votes and opted to not even add his vote to the wagon that would get Agua killed instead of him. A wolf almost never does this. Only by accident or if it's something like the team is dysfunctional and is playing with fire in a way that gets them burned almost always

Gravy is the strongest villager candidate by far right now and lynching anybody else is much better. In the overwhelming majority of games, we could call Gravy lock-villager and never kill him and we would be wrong only a tiny percentage of the time

This would be amazing if they were wolves together

[OngBonga]

Thinking about the modkills -

I think the insta-modkill of those who acc slip is probably necessary, but it potentially brings an interesting mechanic into the game... let's assume instead of looking at dwd, quad looked at taint... well now it's 4 cleared vs 4 unknows... what happens if duck, an unknown villager, deliberately posts as ong? Suicide by modkill, leaving 4 cleared vs 3 unknowns... a winning move. Is that really fair to the wolves? They don't have that weapon.

Is such a move fair game or not? After all, we're obliged to play to our win condition.

[MadMojoMonkey]

This was an excellent game to spectate. The early mod kills were fantastic from a reader's perspective.

Losing a wolf over a slip-up that early, while entertaining, was also disappointing as far as the game now being stacked heavily toward village win.



I like the faster day/night cycle format of this game compared to the games I played in.

[Luco]

I played this game assuming that the wolves were allowed to reveal to each other, but they weren't. Harsh lol

Eric, gabe, gator - did you guys figure each other out at all?

[Luco]

You just seemed to find even the smallest thing and point out how that could make me a wolf, but you weren't doing that with everyone. And even with that you didn't jump right out and say I should be lynched so I figured you had to have looked me up.

If you did it on purpose as cover for the real seer then you did an excellent job.

Most of it was accidental - I was pushing quad & pelion together because I was trying to get ducksucks and duck to reconcile their viewpoints and move forward as a unit. Just a couple of odd comments were designed to look specialish

[OngBonga]

Oh yeah I thought jkds was a wolf because while I was begging for the vig shot and not the seer lookup, it felt like he didn't consider that I was the vig trying to stop the seer looking at a special. Either that or he didn't care. I figured the latter is more likely.

[Galapogos]

I played this game assuming that the wolves were allowed to reveal to each other, but they weren't. Harsh lol

Eric, gabe, gator - did you guys figure each other out at all?

I think they should be allowed to reveal to one another, that's supposed to be their advantage is ability to collaborate and share everything. They could always do obvious things in the den that gives themselves away to one another and put the mod in a tough spot for making subjective calls which always turns out ugly. See Keybored in the dead thread when baud made a call he didn't agree with and the tantrum that ensued. BTW baud, pretty sure that wasn't actually gabe that posted that comment about you.

I think a huge village error was letting Aqua off the hook because he stopped posting. Not being results oriented, just think that's awful reasoning on day 1. You're not making a soul read so just get rid of the trash while you can. I also want to know why when I'm a wolf and I take the shut up and disappear approach you fuckers aren't so quick to let me off the hook!

[Taint]

basically with agua we were victims of our own success

agree about the collaboration too, wolves should have known each other and been allowed to guess the villagers imo

[Taint]

my phone is still tainted

[BankItDrew]

OH! Thanks to baudib and drew for modding what must have been a very tricky game to mod. Drew, how's the head?

Very good. Thanks

[baudib]

why did Gabe and Rong just vanish

[a500lbgorilla]

Some theory to hold you over. Play werewolf like Zeckhuaser plays bridge. http://www.rbcpa.com/mungerspeech_june_95.pdf

[baudib]

I've been playing 2-3 turbos a day since I got killed in Anon.

cool article

[wufwugy]

the moral of the story is... when wuf says so and so is never a wolf here, ignore him.

This. But I would bet my life that when you ignore me, I'll be right. The WW gods have it against FTR. They refuse to let anything that has >10% probability of happening actually happen.

[wufwugy]

I really want to mod an anonwolf tbh. I like modding a lot, probably more than playing, just not always modding. It also comes easy to me. I don't seem to have problems figuring out what the best actions are to keep the game fair and in spirit

[a500lbgorilla]

This. But I would bet my life that when you ignore me, I'll be right. The WW gods have it against FTR. They refuse to let anything that has >10% probability of happening actually happen.

Some theory to hold you over. Play werewolf like Zeckhuaser plays bridge. http://www.rbcpa.com/mungerspeech_june_95.pdf

Play werewolf like Zeckhauser plays bridge.

[wufwugy]

I'm having a hard time assessing the point of that article. He's doing what we do here: taking things that are true in certain ways under certain circumstances, and extrapolating them to the whole. What's the lesson in there to do with WW?

[a500lbgorilla]

It's a high level survey of ways people get things wrong from a very clever man who has spent his adult life noticing how easily people see things wrong.

(edit My Zeckhauser point basicially says that) Basically, you, as a human being with a human brain forged by evolution, suck at statistics. You literally cannot do basic, elementary statistics as it's not in your nature. Your nature is to do absurd statistics like constantly focusing on >10% chance things of happening happening.

When the brain should be using the simple probability mathematics of Fermat and Pascal applied to all reasonably obtainable and correctly weighted items of information that are of
value in predicting outcomes, the right way to think is the way Zeckhauser plays bridge.
It’s just that simple. And your brain doesn’t naturally know how to think the way
Zeckhauser knows how to play bridge. Now, you notice I put in that availability thing, and
there I’m mimicking some very eminent psychologists [Daniel] Kahneman, Eikhout[?] (I
hope I pronounced that right) and [Amos] Tversky, who raised the idea of availability to a
whole heuristic of misjudgment. And they are very substantially right.

Occam's razor, FPS, etc etc.

[wufwugy]

That's true. The brain is not logical, it's intuitive. Math is not intuitive, it's logical. But I'm still wondering what's the prescription. How am I supposed to take that idea and apply it to WW?

[a500lbgorilla]

That's true. The brain is not logical, it's intuitive. Math is not intuitive, it's logical. But I'm still wondering what's the prescription. How am I supposed to take that idea and apply it to WW?

How do you think Zeckhauser plays bridge?

[wufwugy]

No idea. Surely the point can't be to just be intuitive