FTR Werewolf: Gold Rush (Carbon Poker Freeroll)

[wufwugy]

Baudib is a wolf here almost always. If he's not a wolf, it means he has quite a strange personality (maybe he does, I don't know). Virtually any villager who thinks I'm such a wolf would go after ME, not after people not named me based on a read he has on me. It's strange for a villager to be so ultra confident in a read that he doesn't even need to confirmation of my role to go after others. I think this is all a plan from the wolves. I'll explain further soon. Regardless, Baud is behaving unlike any villager we've ever seen and is refusing to acknowledge any of the things that demonstrate that I'm a villager. I hope it isn't just his inexperience, but I doubt it. Both he and I thought I was dead yesterday


I think the nom is deliberate. I think the wolf team is at least two high profile regs. I don't think they are afraid of the seer (due to half as many lookups) so they're not special hunting. I think they want to keep as many high profile players around as possible so they can hide better and point the finger better

If this is their plan and it involves Baudib trying to destroy me, they'll win. Not so much the game, but they will beat me. It makes sense that Baud wants me alive till the end, since that's the time I've always bragged about being the best. I don't have it in me anymore though

My guesses for wolf teams right now includes mainly Baud Bikes Gabe BID Keith and Ong. I think all of them would be game with the Luco kill and the FPS and sending Baud hounding after me. Gator, Rilla, and Rong would be less inclined to go in that direction, but not entirely I guess

Anyways, the last time I thought the wolves were scheming like this, I was wrong. But the Luco lynch changes things. I think the most probable explanation is they're trying to be tricky

[scourrge]

Baudib is a wolf here almost always. If he's not a wolf, it means he has quite a strange personality (maybe he does, I don't know). Virtually any villager who thinks I'm such a wolf would go after ME, not after people not named me based on a read he has on me. It's strange for a villager to be so ultra confident in a read that he doesn't even need to confirmation of my role to go after others. I think this is all a plan from the wolves. I'll explain further soon. Regardless, Baud is behaving unlike any villager we've ever seen and is refusing to acknowledge any of the things that demonstrate that I'm a villager. I hope it isn't just his inexperience, but I doubt it. Both he and I thought I was dead yesterday


I think the nom is deliberate. I think the wolf team is at least two high profile regs. I don't think they are afraid of the seer (due to half as many lookups) so they're not special hunting. I think they want to keep as many high profile players around as possible so they can hide better and point the finger better

If this is their plan and it involves Baudib trying to destroy me, they'll win. Not so much the game, but they will beat me. It makes sense that Baud wants me alive till the end, since that's the time I've always bragged about being the best. I don't have it in me anymore though

My guesses for wolf teams right now includes mainly Baud Bikes Gabe BID Keith and Ong. I think all of them would be game with the Luco kill and the FPS and sending Baud hounding after me. Gator, Rilla, and Rong would be less inclined to go in that direction, but not entirely I guess

Anyways, the last time I thought the wolves were scheming like this, I was wrong. But the Luco lynch changes things. I think the most probable explanation is they're trying to be tricky

Pretty interesting. I think with all the heat being thrown wuf's way I was expecting to feel like he was more of a wolf, but the sentiments here make me feel the opposite. Wuf actually seems legit like he doesn't care about getting lynched, more about winning "himself" or being right. Kind of self-oriented focus, but tbh I feel like if he WAS a wolf there would be more of a non self-oriented focus. He'd try to at least hint at a "good of the village vibe." Is that crazy/does that make any sense?

luco def didn't post, not sure what this means in terms of wolf strat though. it could be that baud or wuf are villagers, and the wolves think that everyone is close to consensus on lynching one of them (it's swung back and forth a bit, but mostly focused on them), so it'd be a waste to nom one. aside from that I don't understand the reasoning at all - could just be to be as confusing as possible, and not really associate the death to anyone.

Back to baud, not convinced he's a villager, but wuf's arguments aren't convincing me he's wolfish either. For one thing, no one has seen baud play villager, and baud's first game involved him as the last wolf, coming in late. He had to be extremely into the action, thinking on more levels than he probably should have been, etc. I kind of feel like that's just carrying over here, and his so-called unfounded reads might just be experimentation with early-game villager strat.

It's hard for me to comment on others who have participated less, simply because I don't have much experience, but a couple things jump out about BID. It seems to me he hasn't posted tons, but has overall been willing to offer lynch suggestions. this strikes me as a wolfish strategy, hoping to start ripples toward consensus without having to go too in-depth about his own thought process. but I'm also a bit confused because he has changed vote a couple times recently. first to grayfox (jumping to consensus with baudib), then to baudib (with only 2 not-super-insightful posts from baudib in between). but in between THOSE, he claimed he might switch his vote to wuf (but didn't).

if I could see where he was drawing his conclusions from I might sense less of a wolf vibe from it. maybe I'm just not reading enough into baudib's pre-written post, or don't understand it well, but I don't know what to make of all the lynch-vote jumping.

[BankItDrew]

It's hard for me to comment on others who have participated less, simply because I don't have much experience, but a couple things jump out about BID. It seems to me he hasn't posted tons, but has overall been willing to offer lynch suggestions. this strikes me as a villagish strategy, hoping to start ripples toward consensus

if I could see where he was drawing his conclusions from I might sense more of a village vibe from it. maybe I'm just not reading enough into baudib's pre-written post, or don't understand it well, but I don't know what to make of all the lynch-vote jumping.

fyp

I'm sort of changing my mind frequently, but also simply slinging pasta to the wall.

[scourrge]

fyp

I'm sort of changing my mind frequently, but also simply slinging pasta to the wall.

thanks for bolding changes - I would have been confused as hell otherwise lol. if you can explain to me why the strategy is more villagish than wolfish instead of just stating that it is, I'd be more inclined to not be suspicious.

[BankItDrew]

thanks for bolding changes - I would have been confused as hell otherwise lol. if you can explain to me why the strategy is more villagish than wolfish instead of just stating that it is, I'd be more inclined to not be suspicious.

By offering lynch suggestions it creates talk, which is good. If no one gave any info, or very little, the village is simple shooting at a target in the dark.

To be fair though, I may have been a little too crazy with the bolding and rescinding today so far.

[scourrge]

By offering lynch suggestions it creates talk, which is good. If no one gave any info, or very little, the village is simple shooting at a target in the dark.

To be fair though, I may have been a little too crazy with the bolding and rescinding today so far.

Hmm. That does make sense, but the bolding and rescinding was def a bit insane. I'll mull this over more tomorrow I suppose.

As for baudib's statement about lynching himself and wuf, I understand the statement, but at the same time it kind of doesn't make sense to me? Like, what wolf in their right mind would make that offer just to get rid of a strong villager unless they had reason to believe they were an OP special or something? And didn't wuf make a similar offer? So how can either be a wolf? Just seems like such a risky offer -> breakeven at best, prob -EV for any wolf.

I'm off to bed for real this time, I swear.

[BankItDrew]

As for baudib's statement about lynching himself and wuf, I understand the statement, but at the same time it kind of doesn't make sense to me? Like, what wolf in their right mind would make that offer just to get rid of a strong villager unless they had reason to believe they were an OP special or something? And didn't wuf make a similar offer? So how can either be a wolf? Just seems like such a risky offer -> breakeven at best, prob -EV for any wolf.

what would be crazy is if wuf and bdub were both wolves but they got carried away. Now that they are both on the top of many peoples list, they figure what the hell... If one of us goes down, at least the other looks like a lock villager.

[BankItDrew]

thanks for bolding changes - I would have been confused as hell otherwise lol. if you can explain to me why the strategy is more villagish than wolfish instead of just stating that it is, I'd be more inclined to not be suspicious.

Also, I was trying to point out the vagueness in your logic. It is in a sense, ironic, because you provide no reason for thinking it is wolfish.

[scourrge]

Ugh I'm too slow of a poster. People keep putting stuff in while I'm typing.

Also, I was trying to point out the vagueness in your logic. It is in a sense, ironic, because you provide no reason for thinking it is wolfish.

Oh, fair enough. I was thinking it was wolfish because it seemed like you were throwing out semi-random lynch votes just to get people lynched, rather than piecing together who might be a wolf and voting based on that. That was my perception, but I guess the fact that you threw multiple changes around actually kind of goes against that. And I guess I see how it could be more village-oriented because putting heat on people makes them give more info.

[wufwugy]

Pretty interesting. I think with all the heat being thrown wuf's way I was expecting to feel like he was more of a wolf, but the sentiments here make me feel the opposite. Wuf actually seems legit like he doesn't care about getting lynched, more about winning "himself" or being right. Kind of self-oriented focus, but tbh I feel like if he WAS a wolf there would be more of a non self-oriented focus. He'd try to at least hint at a "good of the village vibe." Is that crazy/does that make any sense?

luco def didn't post, not sure what this means in terms of wolf strat though. it could be that baud or wuf are villagers, and the wolves think that everyone is close to consensus on lynching one of them (it's swung back and forth a bit, but mostly focused on them), so it'd be a waste to nom one. aside from that I don't understand the reasoning at all - could just be to be as confusing as possible, and not really associate the death to anyone.

Back to baud, not convinced he's a villager, but wuf's arguments aren't convincing me he's wolfish either. For one thing, no one has seen baud play villager, and baud's first game involved him as the last wolf, coming in late. He had to be extremely into the action, thinking on more levels than he probably should have been, etc. I kind of feel like that's just carrying over here, and his so-called unfounded reads might just be experimentation with early-game villager strat.

It's hard for me to comment on others who have participated less, simply because I don't have much experience, but a couple things jump out about BID. It seems to me he hasn't posted tons, but has overall been willing to offer lynch suggestions. this strikes me as a wolfish strategy, hoping to start ripples toward consensus without having to go too in-depth about his own thought process. but I'm also a bit confused because he has changed vote a couple times recently. first to grayfox (jumping to consensus with baudib), then to baudib (with only 2 not-super-insightful posts from baudib in between). but in between THOSE, he claimed he might switch his vote to wuf (but didn't).

if I could see where he was drawing his conclusions from I might sense less of a wolf vibe from it. maybe I'm just not reading enough into baudib's pre-written post, or don't understand it well, but I don't know what to make of all the lynch-vote jumping.

I get an itching, crawling sensation at the first bolded section. That is just too specific of my personal sensibilities for a brand-newb to know. This has to have been discussed in the wolfchat. My rep is very much that my village play is narcissistic and focused on "winning himself or being right". The "good of the village thing" is also something that can be legitimately said about how I played turncoat. I doubt scourge would know this if somebody didn't tell him. The rhetoric is not the kind nubs use in the first place

The second bolded section is as if Baud himself explained it. How confident are we that scourge has examined that game enough to know this?

[baudib]

I get an itching, crawling sensation at the first bolded section. That is just too specific of my personal sensibilities for a brand-newb to know. This has to have been discussed in the wolfchat. My rep is very much that my village play is narcissistic and focused on "winning himself or being right". The "good of the village thing" is also something that can be legitimately said about how I played turncoat. I doubt scourge would know this if somebody didn't tell him. The rhetoric is not the kind nubs use in the first place

The second bolded section is as if Baud himself explained it. How confident are we that scourge has examined that game enough to know this?

I talk to scourrge almost every day. I told him about last game while I was playing it. I told him that we can't talk about the game outside the thread and we've both respected that.

[scourrge]

First 2 quotes are from wuf, #621:

I get an itching, crawling sensation at the first bolded section. That is just too specific of my personal sensibilities for a brand-newb to know. This has to have been discussed in the wolfchat. My rep is very much that my village play is narcissistic and focused on "winning himself or being right". The "good of the village thing" is also something that can be legitimately said about how I played turncoat. I doubt scourge would know this if somebody didn't tell him. The rhetoric is not the kind nubs use in the first place

You're right, I couldn't really have known your rep. But there were about 400 posts in here before I even started to join the fun, and prob close to 100 of them were from you. My comments about the difference between your wolf and village play were based on observation and then speculation. I should be worried that you're so guarded of me now, but tbh I'm just excited that my ramblings were actually somewhat close to accurate.

I have virtually no knowledge of how you've played past games. Some from what's been said itt, but most of my thoughts were based only on your posts itt so far. Also, not really sure what you mean about the rhetoric noobs use. Are you trying to say I've played werewolves elsewhere? Not that you'd believe him, but baud knows this is my first game. I had to actually sit down and read what all the specials do. And since I AM a noob, I don't know what the statement about my rhetoric is supposed to mean. All my posts are kind of similar to each other in terms of how I write? So I'm not sure why that makes it suddenly suspicious now.

The second bolded section is as if Baud himself explained it. How confident are we that scourge has examined that game enough to know this?

I haven't examined that game at all - at least not in thread form. And it being said as if "Baud himself explained it" makes perfect sense lol.

I talk to scourrge almost every day. I told him about last game while I was playing it. I told him that we can't talk about the game outside the thread and we've both respected that.

Baud has been the only one I've spoken with about that game. It was his first game so he was pretty excited, so I heard a lot about it. We also think pretty similarly in general, so it's not that surprising that the logic would flow in the same way.

[Keith]

Going to bed soon. I'm assuming Day will be over soon

I would prefer to be lynched because if Baudib shows up as villager, I'll take it personally and get too engrossed in the game. I'm an alcoholic of werewolf

The case for Baud being a wolf is stellar. His process is not village. He's not making a case for anything. I don't feel a need to go further into detail. You're gonna have to lynch him after I die

BID is the next best lynch. The case I made about probability of his role being non-vanilla is strong. Also the case I made in just a couple posts above this one is great. Unless he's not truthful about those 200 posts, either it's all just a coincidence or the wolfies told him he's getting heat over the sub

My two least likely wolves are Gray and Rong. Gray because he's doing all sorts of nub-vil reads. Like he thinks he has something with his read on me. He's trying to explain why it's good, but we all know that after a few games under his belt, he'll see why it isn't. Rong for a read I would prefer to not say

Also Bigred. I do think my logic is sound with how he's just a level 1 player who sees what role he gets then has enthusiasm degree based on it

Beware of Ong. If he's a villager, this is a better village game than normal, but if he's a wolf it's also a better wolf game. He said this



Which suggests he doesn't care who between me and Baud die. I'm not going to extend the deadline, and if he was villaging he would care more about getting his vote on the right player than relying on something like me opting to get it extended


Anyways, good hunting. It has been a productive day. I accept the lynch. I was a baddy in the previous game and this one has too many players who don't have a feel for how I play for me to survive. Kill Baud and BID

considering rong minimal play during the game , what is the read that you had on dan that made you think he's a villager. you went into detail about gray why not for DAn?

n1 Luco dies and wuf said

Baudib is a wolf here almost always. If he's not a wolf, it means he has quite a strange personality (maybe he does, I don't know). Virtually any villager who thinks I'm such a wolf would go after ME, not after people not named me based on a read he has on me. It's strange for a villager to be so ultra confident in a read that he doesn't even need to confirmation of my role to go after others. I think this is all a plan from the wolves. I'll explain further soon. Regardless, Baud is behaving unlike any villager we've ever seen and is refusing to acknowledge any of the things that demonstrate that I'm a villager. I hope it isn't just his inexperience, but I doubt it. Both he and I thought I was dead yesterday


I think the nom is deliberate. I think the wolf team is at least two high profile regs. I don't think they are afraid of the seer (due to half as many lookups) so they're not special hunting. I think they want to keep as many high profile players around as possible so they can hide better and point the finger better

If this is their plan and it involves Baudib trying to destroy me, they'll win. Not so much the game, but they will beat me. It makes sense that Baud wants me alive till the end, since that's the time I've always bragged about being the best. I don't have it in me anymore though

My guesses for wolf teams right now includes mainly Baud Bikes Gabe BID Keith and Ong. I think all of them would be game with the Luco kill and the FPS and sending Baud hounding after me. Gator, Rilla, and Rong would be less inclined to go in that direction, but not entirely I guess

Anyways, the last time I thought the wolves were scheming like this, I was wrong. But the Luco lynch changes things. I think the most probable explanation is they're trying to be tricky

isn't the two high profile wolves one hell of a leap from a LUCO nom.the fact that Ong was next to die and gator rilla and gabe all survived to day 3 makes me wonder if wuf + two lower profile players are the wolves and making this suggestion was designed to make the village paranoid about gabe,rilla and gator so that they became the lynches and vig victims leaving the wolves in a strong position going into the later days of the game.