This is me trying to figure out my unexploitable strategy in this particular spot. Lol am I even close?
Hero (BB): $13.65 (273 bb)
BTN: $4.40 (88 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with AQ
BTN raises to $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN raises to $1.10, Hero raises to $4.40, BTN calls $3.30 and is all-in
Based on opp's tendencies I've broken down his range like so:
INITIAL 4B: 48 TT+,AJs+,AQo+
CALL 5B: 48 TT+,AJs+,AQo+
Alpha value from opp's perspective: 0.377
So opp's unexploitable calling freq is .623, and his unexploitable calling range will be something like:
30 JJ+,AKs,AKo
So...
H unexploitable value range:
8 KK+
H calling range:
22 QQ, AK
H unexploitable bluffing frequency:
4/(4+4+1.45)=0.42
Then 0.58x=8, x=14, therefore we have 6 combos of bluffs in this spot to be unexploitable and we pick the hands just below our calling
range for that:
6 AQs,AdQc,AdQs
Okay so we now know what our unexploitable strategy looks like for this spot (??), and we can figure out how we
want to deviate from this to exploit our opponent. We've already determined from our range breakdown of opp that
he's almost never folding, and I don't think this opp is likely to adjust here, so I don't think we should ever
be bluffing. So we eliminate our bluffing range, but we can widen our value range. We should go with anything with
50%+ vs. his calling range because this is the last bet to be put in.
34 QQ+,AKs,AKo
Reply With Quote