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A second bluffing scenario. I am looking at whether my bluff on the river was profitable:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (5 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
SB is very loose and passive. A 0.02c raise was his go-to bet when he was bluffing (badly).
UTG ($2.78)
MP ($1.03)
Button ($1.33)
SB ($0.91)
Hero (BB) ($1.91)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 4 , A
3 folds, SB calls $0.01, Hero checks
Flop: ($0.04) Q , K , 3 (2 players)
SB bets $0.02, Hero calls $0.02
Turn: ($0.08) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $0.02, Hero raises to $0.08, SB calls $0.06
River: ($0.24) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.18, 1 fold
Total pot: $0.24 | Rake: $0.01
Results below:
I bet 18c into a 21c pot: 18/(18+21) = 39%. I need the villain to fold more than 39% of the time to make the bluff profitable.
I put his preflop calling range as being super wide:
33-22,K9s-K2s,Q9s-Q2s,J9s+,J3s-J2s,T3s-T2s,93s-92s,83s-82s,73s-72s,63s-62s,53s-52s,42s+,32s,A5o-A2o,KTo-K2o,QTo-Q2o,J9o+,J3o-J2o,T3o-T2o,93o-92o,83o-82o,73o-72o,63o-62o,53o-52o,42o+,32o
Or about 500/1081 (46%) of hands.
By the river, I put his range around (though I didn't think he was slowplaying me, so I think realistically his range is slightly smaller than this):
33-22,K9s-K2s,Q9s-Q2s,32s,K9o-K2o,Q9o-Q2o,32o
About 201/1081 (19%)
201/500 = 40%
40 > 39, so the bluff is about break even in terms of its profitability.
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