Quote Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider View Post
This is another reason I think this is the nuts. The timing tell I got on the turn made me suspect I was going to get something shipped on me, but I don't think after I just flat the flop, that he checks the turn and risks a free card (and a missed street of value) if he holds a set, so I think it was more likely to be a good draw on the turn (if I'm right about the tell).

What does confuse me a bit is the fact that after I checked back the turn, he's every reason to believe it just checks down, so I don't see why he doesn't lead the river with the nuts.

The only other scenario that makes any sense to me if that we're chopping, and he checks the river expecting _me_ to have A8/AT then jams for thin value.
The timing tell has me thinking it's a draw. I do this when I want a free river... make it look like the turn hit me hard and I'm deciding whether to lead or c/r... when really I want villain to check back.

As for him c/r the river... I suspect he expects you to merely call if the river hit you and he leads, and you fold if it misses. By checking he allows you to bet if you hit the ace, or maybe even bluff if it didn't. Seems like a good line for the nuts on river if he thinks you have trouble folding AK and better.