10nl A7o in SB 3b pre | surprised by equity

[WeldPhaser]

BU isn't quite as nitty as stats show, like 14/12/2 over 200, BU steal is 28%, and foldto3b = 84%

So 3b here is pretty standardish i think. and being oop when he calls I'm planning on giving up pretty easily post. Until the flop comes. I know i'm not winning a massive pot if the 4 flush comes unless he's holding Kh,Qh, but anyway the reason I posted was I couldn't believe our equity vs. his call 3b range:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Jh3h2h
Equity Win Tie
BU 53.69% 53.23% 0.47% { QQ-22, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo+, KhQd, KsQd, KsQh }
SB 46.31% 45.84% 0.47% { Ah7c }


A reason we like suited A's a heck of a lot more right?



Revolution Gaming Network - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $4.82 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
BTN: $10.84 (VPIP: 9.41, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 88)
Hero (SB): $14.50
BB: $4.81 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)

Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A 7

fold, BTN raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1.00, fold, BTN calls $0.65

Flop: ($2.10, 2 players) J 3 2
Hero bets $1.60, fold

[BorisTheSpider]

I couldn't believe our equity vs. his call 3b range:

Board: Jh3h2h
Equity Win Tie
BU 53.69% 53.23% 0.47% { QQ-22, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo+, KhQd, KsQd, KsQh }
SB 46.31% 45.84% 0.47% { Ah7c }

Nice post, since the preflop equity of ace-rag is also not terrible here, and it does seem somewhat suprising against his range.

You might well be right in assigning him small PPs, KQo, and even AJs to his 3bet calling range here, but if he's any sense he's more likely to be 4b'ing them. A nit might also be folding them. It doesn't actually measurably change the postflop equity anyway.

[WeldPhaser]

Nice post, since the preflop equity of ace-rag is also not terrible here, and it does seem somewhat suprising against his range.

You might well be right in assigning him small PPs, KQo, and even AJs to his 3bet calling range here, but if he's any sense he's more likely to be 4b'ing them. A nit might also be folding them. It doesn't actually measurably change the postflop equity anyway.

I had threw around some other combo's , but like you said it doesn't effect the equity all that much.

figured it would be conversation worthy to talk about or equity post flop here. I'll be honest during the hand i thought my perceived equity was a lot higher.(65-70%).

The way I look at mono flops is vs. a thinking opponent their usually going too be pretty honest in these spots. when up against a nitty player. I wonder how often they fold when the 4 flush comes and they have a non nut flush ott when we bet?

[Savy]

Seeing a 4flush is pretty rare, what do you think you should take from this discovery in general though?
(hint, you already know it but probably until know didn't actually realise why)

[WeldPhaser]

Seeing a 4flush is pretty rare, what do you think you should take from this discovery in general though?
(hint, you already know it but probably until know didn't actually realise why)

in general I should continue to due sim's w/ different scenario's. Especially now in stuations where I thought us to be farther ahead on the flop or turn than we actually are.

[abelardx]

Playing A7o from the blinds is probably not going to be profitable. It's a reverse implied odds hand. 3betting it seems very spewy. You're building a big pot oop with a very weak hand against a nit. Also, it doesn't matter here, but I wouldn't presume he has no AK in his range. Many players do not 4bet AK.

[Savy]

in general I should continue to due sim's w/ different scenario's. Especially now in stuations where I thought us to be farther ahead on the flop or turn than we actually are.

I actually have no idea what I meant, was a bit drunk when I posted it so probably nothing of any real value.

[kickass]

I dont think this is a good 3b. True we has a blocker but the hand is gonna play like manure. If we 3b every time we have a blocker we are gonna be 3bing a fucking tonne. This might be okay vs these super tight villains as long as we dont spew off our profit when we do see a flop.

[d0zer]

3b pre is fine vs someone folding so much to 3bets. cbet 1.10-1.20 does as much as 1.60.

[BorisTheSpider]

3b pre is fine vs someone folding so much to 3bets. cbet 1.10-1.20 does as much as 1.60.

This

[WeldPhaser]

I dont think this is a good 3b. True we has a blocker but the hand is gonna play like manure. If we 3b every time we have a blocker we are gonna be 3bing a fucking tonne. This might be okay vs these super tight villains as long as we dont spew off our profit when we do see a flop.

I'm def not 3b'ing everytime w/ blocker, and in fact like normal obv not running into this situation super often where all action folds to the bu. So when it does, and we can make him fold with a 3b i like it.

like i said before when he flats the 3b i'm giving up unless a flop like above or 2p .. ya know