BTN Stealing

[Savy]

Here's the start of what I've got, just not sure if this is right.

Assumptions
1)SB always folds
2)BB 3bets/folds to an open
3)BB 5bets/folds to a 4bet
4)Villain 3bets 12.8% (is more than this in this spot so conservative)
5)Villain 5bet shoves 2.56% (QQ+ & AK)
6)Bets go like this, 2.5bb -> 9bb -> 30bb -> 100bb

So to start off with we open 2.5bb and villain folds 87.2% of the time.

As 2.5/4 = 62.5% this means that we can open ATC profitably and fold to a 3bet and profit.

When we 4bet, we make it 30bb. So 27.5/39.5 = 70%, so if villain is folding > 70% of his range we can 4bet ATC profitably.

2.56/12.8 = 20%, so villain is folding 80%.

So in this scenario although it's obviously not optimal does this mean that we can open 100% and then 4bet 100% and fold every time villain shoves and profit or have I really bollocked something up?

[surviva316]

6)Bets go like this, 2.5bb -> 9bb -> 30bb -> 100bb

Whoa, more like 2.5 -> 8.5 -> 19-20bb.

So in this scenario although it's obviously not optimal does this mean that we can open 100% and then 4bet 100% and fold every time villain shoves and profit or have I really bollocked something up?

You're yet to account for blockers. 4b'ing 87s, for example, might block enough of his 3b/fold range that it reduces his fold percentage significantly.

Other than that, though, yes it's possible for it to be profitable for us to 4b/fold napkins in a vacuum. We obviously can't just 4b/f 100%, though. This is why we choose an unexploitable range and adjust from there. If he has such a high 3b/f frequency, then you 1) increase your 4b %age to an exploitative but non-insane amount and 2) make that range very bluff heavy. Like if he's only 5b'ing QQ+/AK, then there's no point in 4b'ing anything other than KK+ for value. This gives you a lot of room for bluffing combos. You could be opening the button just 50%, and 4b any Ax you can't call with and any Kxs you can't call with, and we're talking about a manageable 20% 4b rate.

It's super exploitable, but it would take a long time for someone with just a 2.56% 5b range to notice that we're 4b/folding more than usual.