[5NL] KQo...river decision

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 26/18/5 over a decent sample size. Fold to cbet, 43%.

Had seen villain do some strange things, had seen him check the nut flush on the river, OOP. Had seen him call 3bets IP with 64s and 98o. He wasn't as straight forward as his stats suggested.


PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $1.71
BB: $22.81
Hero (UTG): $10.64
CO: $5.09
BTN: $12.50

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has K Q

Hero raises to $0.20, fold, BTN calls $0.20, SB calls $0.18, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.80, 4 players) Q 3 9
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BTN raises to $1.50, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.10

Turn: ($3.80, 2 players) K
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($3.80, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.55, Hero ???

OK...firstly is flop OK? Should I be calling the raise, it looks pretty strong considering villain has 2 players to act behind, although a lot of 5NL players see a 1/2 PSB or smaller as a sign of weakness so maybe he is trying to get me out the pot.

I doubt villain calls with AQ IP, so what could he be raising? JT/QJ/QT hands along those lines? Maybe 99/33.

He checks behind on the turn. Does he chk a straight here expecting me to bet the river? I chk to c/r which clearly didn't work. I don't think villain checks a set here either.

River is a disgusting card. I can't bet my 2P now so I chk expecting villain to chk behind and he bets.

What to do...what to do?

[Carroters]

Bleh I'd just fold the flop. Fold river. We've seen him be a station pre flop, not attack the hell out of 4 way flops the two are pretty different things and spew in one spot is often uncorrelated with spew in the other.

[WeldPhaser]

Why don't you think he flats AQ IP??

[Cobra_1878]

Why don't you think he flats AQ IP??

I think AQ, IP, would be in villain's raising/3betting range. He may well have flatted with AQ, I just didn't feel like he would in this situation.

[rpm]

i'd fold this river. flop decision i think is close but i think i too would call because this guy has shown us he is most probably capable of dicking about a bit. plus he has a really low FTCB, i assume he must be raising and attacking some flops unless he's just a station vs CB's. his raise CB is one of the more important stats in this hand imo

[Carroters]

43% FTCB isn't super low. I definitely don't think it means he's likely to bluff raise 4-way flops with 2 villains to act behind. Probably just means he doesn't like to fold with any piece of the board, which ties in nicely to the fact he likes to see flops with 89o vs 3-bets. I'd say based on what we know so far him being a station is more likely than him being aggro enough to have much of a bluffing range here. He could have some spew with a worse Q sometimes, or occasional JT, but meh I'd just fold. Turns and rivers are going to suck a lot oop having no idea where our folding point should be (where he decides QJ is no longer the nuts etc.)

[rpm]

all good points carroters. you've convinced me, though i know i'd definitely make the mistake of calling in play

[jackvance]

I thought for sure I had replied to this yesterday before I went to sleep, apparently not. Bet 3/4 pot on flop.

[WeldPhaser]

doesn't how deep we are here affect how we should proceed post flop? thought cobra was @ 10nl first glance despite post title..