Speaking of overbets

[Carroters]

Just want to share a thought on how I think we should use the GTO approach. The way I see it is that before we make any kind of GTO calculation we need to make a few base assumptions based on population reads, expected tendencies due to stats/reads which might change our framework. So we don't have any read as to his overbetting range per se, but we can probably make a couple of decent base assumptions. I haven't played 200 in a while Stacks, so I might be off on this, but I would imagine that big over bet bluffs are pretty rare, and these lines are for value more often than not from regs at low stakes.

I'd basically use this assumption to deduce that while villain may well have a bluffing range here, we should,work off the groundwork that it won't be anywhere near as wide as an optimal overbet bluffing range (whatever that might be). Therefore, the % of the time we need to call to play optimally vs him in this spot should go down, although it should of course not become 0. I think we'd get completely crushed here calling 36% of our range. I obviously still want to call AT as it's way higher up than that.

Does that make any sense? Still very inexperienced with the GTO so correct me if that approach I sketched is flawed.

[Stacks]

but I would imagine that big over bet bluffs are pretty rare, and these lines are for value more often than not from regs at low stakes.

This is my assumption as well.

I'd basically use this assumption to deduce that while villain may well have a bluffing range here, we should,work off the groundwork that it won't be anywhere near as wide as an optimal overbet bluffing range (whatever that might be).

When he's betting 84 to win 48, we will need 39% equity to call (84/216). Thus I believe an optimal betting range would be 39% bluffs, 61% value if he wants to make us indifferent to calling with bluff catchers.

And we need to defend 36% of the time to make him indifferent to bluffing.

Does that make any sense? Still very inexperienced with the GTO so correct me if that approach I sketched is flawed.

I'm pretty inexperienced with it as well, so I could be wrong on the above.

[daven]

I would imagine that big over bet bluffs are pretty rare, and these lines are for value more often than not from regs at low stakes.

folding is obv exploitable here, but i don't think this type of villain is going to be exploiting by overbet shoving often enough to call