I know people are in love with a thin value bet here, but I'd just check it back.

You need to have a pretty solid read of Villain's ranges when you go for the thin value. Fat value is easier, 'cause you can go with simple statistics (e.g. a set is almost always good OTF). When you go for any value you need to have an idea of how often you expect to be called. When the value is thin, your margin for error is thinner, too. So you need to have more info (on Villain) to make a good stab at it.


Scraping every bit of value out of every hand is absolutely the long term goal, but jumping in and saying to bet a certain amount without a solid sense of how often you expect to lose the bet is speculation.