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Bet sizing question--drawing value from monster hands

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  1. #1

    Default Bet sizing question--drawing value from monster hands

    SB is VPIP/PFR: 23/13 over 60 hands, and has 50% fold rate on each street (50% fold to cbet); not a very large sample, so I'm just considering him a normal player. First--I haven't played in a while, and I'm thinking I need to reevaluate having played this hand at all, but that isn't really my question.

    Given my hand and the flop, how do I size the bet here, as he started at a 49 BB stack, given his stats?

    (Note: I'm not expecting much play out of the VPIP/PFR: 8/7 BTN with 65% fold to cbet over 800 hands, and relatively low AFq post flop.)

    Really I'm trying to get value out of draws and medium pair, while building the pot. . . I'm just not sure of the sizing.

    Merge - $0.04 NL - Holdem - 7 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

    CO: $16.13
    BTN: $1.14
    SB: $1.96
    BB: $4.32
    UTG: $8.24
    Hero (UTG+1): $4.00
    MP: $3.71

    SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

    Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has 5 5

    fold, Hero raises to $0.08, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.08, SB calls $0.06, fold

    Flop: ($0.28, 3 players) Q 5 J
    SB checks, Hero bets ??

    I guess in general against a moderate, fairly passive villain, my general question is how do we draw value on boards that might be scary to the hero come turn or river.
    Last edited by sven00100; 07-12-2013 at 04:33 PM.
  2. #2
    He'll call with a club draw and a ton of broadway combos. Bet at least 3/4 pot. Everything else he folds anyway. Turn sizing would be interesting depending on what falls.
    Last edited by TNreg; 07-12-2013 at 04:52 PM.
  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by TNreg View Post
    He'll call with a club draw and a ton of broadway combos. Bet at least 3/4 pot. Everything else he folds anyway. He might call with an underpair if you bet like 8c but that would be retarded.
    So with that line, we're looking at say. . . 20-25c on flop, 50-60c on turn, and put in his stack on the river? I'd expect he'd call down with TpTk with what I saw, but I'm not sure about the turn bet with a draw either. If his draw didn't improve, do I give him better equity with like 1/2 pot on turn, or continue with a larger bet like above?
  4. #4
    Flop is an absolute dream 3-handed as it connects heavily with the range of villains. Therefore 3/4 pot minimum all the way to get all in by the river barring the most horrendous run-out.

    Not a fan of 2x as standard in mp btw @4nl. Plus your avatar is a little bit creepy
  5. #5
    This isn't like AAA on A73 where you cripple the board, and he has very little calling range.

    555 on QJ5cc, where he probably won't fold any Qx, Jx, clubs, straight draws, you can def just bet like 0.20 or so.
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  6. #6
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    What do you think happens if you bet ~$0.40 here?

    I'd def. overbet this flop with KK+, but overpairs are more vulnerable.

    This hand isn't really vulnerable, but any club, A,K, or T is going to either scare Villain or improve him. If it scares him, then he might stop putting chips in.

    Thoughts?
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by The Bean Counter View Post
    Flop is an absolute dream 3-handed as it connects heavily with the range of villains. Therefore 3/4 pot minimum all the way to get all in by the river barring the most horrendous run-out.

    Not a fan of 2x as standard in mp btw @4nl. Plus your avatar is a little bit creepy
    Message received. Haha. . . and avatar fixed. I meant it to be my profile pic not my avatar anyways.
    Yeah I was wondering about MP sizing there, or if I even want to be playing 55 there in the first place MP. . I don't like open limping at all, and I'm not sure if I should be willing to bet there, though I don't remember what 3bet% were behind, though I know at .02/.04 NL they tend to be low, and stacks in general are 50-100 BB, so it's probably fine shooting for low sets. . .

    My positional sizing is a little weird, and I'm not sure what I really should have as my default on .02/.04 in various positions. Late position I've been pot betting (3.5BB total/2.5BB raise)


    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    This isn't like AAA on A73 where you cripple the board, and he has very little calling range.

    555 on QJ5cc, where he probably won't fold any Qx, Jx, clubs, straight draws, you can def just bet like 0.20 or so.
    That's true. I guess I wasn't thinking how well this would hit his extended range, given his preflop calling range and that he probably won't 3bet a large portion of his normal PFR range.

    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    What do you think happens if you bet ~$0.40 here?

    I'd def. overbet this flop with KK+, but overpairs are more vulnerable.

    This hand isn't really vulnerable, but any club, A,K, or T is going to either scare Villain or improve him. If it scares him, then he might stop putting chips in.

    Thoughts?
    My main thought is, I'm wondering if AJ or Qx is going to call a double pot bet, and if this line improves our overall equity vs. his range, or just forces a fold due to pot odds & a cbet where his kicker is beat. Granted from what I saw he was probably not thinking on that level, but a larger bet might fold out some of his mediocre hands. What do you think?

    On a side note, I'm not sure that a T here will scare the villain 2 handed. I think the only draw I have here is AK, which I probably wouldn't cbet 3 handed against this particular villain, as a low cbet will likely get called with mid pair and a large cbet makes me too vulnerable especially where his hand hit. Again, he's probably not thinking that, but I don't think he's afraid of a 3 straight on the board, if he paired the board high. Still your thought about A K or club is valid. I assume he'd call that bet with a club draw also from what I saw, so I don't really know. I need to find pokerstove again so I can run some scenarios.
  8. #8
    Just download Equilab from pokerstrategy dot com. It's the same program, actually better imo.
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by TNreg View Post
    Just download Equilab from pokerstrategy dot com. It's the same program, actually better imo.
    Been using that too, it's great.

    Bet $0.20
  10. #10
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sven00100 View Post
    My main thought is, I'm wondering if AJ or Qx is going to call a double pot bet
    You're thinking along the right lines. You can go smaller than 2x. Does a 1.5x bet have the same effect on Villain's range? The idea is that there's a bet size that is the biggest Villain will call without having a completely nutted range. That's the target bet size here.

    Quote Originally Posted by sven00100 View Post
    and if this line improves our overall equity vs. his range, or just forces a fold due to pot odds & a cbet where his kicker is beat.
    You have a strong hand here, but you can be outdrawn by both broadway and flush hands. So this is not the time to slow-play to get value from Villain's mediocre hands. This is the time to jam the chips in as fast as Villain will follow. If Villain is folding too much when you make this bet, then you do it more often, not less.

    The thing about bottom set is that it's not a totally nutted hand, but it's nearly that strong. Since it's not quite strong enough to slow play, it's in the fast play zone against all but the fishiest of Villains. On this hand, it's 3-way OTF, so that means both villains have to be whales for you to slow play a set. So it's not strong enough. So you fast play it. And if Villains are folding too often when you bet like that, you bet like that more often by doing it with monster draws, not less often by removing your strong hands.

    Quote Originally Posted by sven00100 View Post
    Granted from what I saw he was probably not thinking on that level, but a larger bet might fold out some of his mediocre hands. What do you think?
    I think you're toeing the waters of FPS lake. Of course a bigger bet folds out some of his mediocre hands, but it gets max value from his mid-strong hands and big draws.
  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    You're thinking along the right lines. You can go smaller than 2x. Does a 1.5x bet have the same effect on Villain's range? The idea is that there's a bet size that is the biggest Villain will call without having a completely nutted range. That's the target bet size here.
    Plus, which is also not so large that it'll stick out like a sort thumb you have a strong hand because you never do this as a bluff in this spot.
  12. #12
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackvance View Post
    Plus, which is also not so large that it'll stick out like a sort thumb you have a strong hand because you never do this as a bluff in this spot.
    I wholeheartedly disagree.

    If Villains fold too much when you make a big bet, then you bet big more often with a (slightly) wider range. You should not be removing near-nut hands from your strongest betting line, you should be adding monster draws and slowly adding in hands with fewer and fewer outs.

    Now, if Villains are folding entirely too much when you make this bet, you might find that you are almost always bluffing with this bet, since you don't want Villains to fold when you have your nutted range... but the nutted range is quite different from the near-nutted range in how you play.
  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    I wholeheartedly disagree.

    If Villains fold too much when you make a big bet, then you bet big more often with a (slightly) wider range. You should not be removing near-nut hands from your strongest betting line, you should be adding monster draws and slowly adding in hands with fewer and fewer outs.

    Now, if Villains are folding entirely too much when you make this bet, you might find that you are almost always bluffing with this bet, since you don't want Villains to fold when you have your nutted range... but the nutted range is quite different from the near-nutted range in how you play.
    This specific spot of overbetting a multiway pot because you want to blow up the pot is pretty standard what I see people try to get away with monsters. If this is your standard with a set, then how do you balance this range? I don't mean it as in, give me a theory of how you could do it, but practically, what is your overbetting range here in (multiway) pots?
  14. #14


    The board is wet. We're never betting a size here to get value from 77 or some shit. Betting out 75% of the pot is the standard line. If you have notes/reads then standard can be tossed out the window. Bet as much you think he'll call with his continuing range on this board. Whether that's 3/4 pot, psb, overbet, whatever, I would think that's what hero bets.
    Last edited by TNreg; 07-14-2013 at 12:45 PM.
  15. #15
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackvance View Post
    what is your overbetting range here in (multiway) pots?
    Hero is UTG+1, so I wouldn't have 55 in my range here. Assuming 55 is the worst hand Hero plays in this spot, let's assume an opening range of:
    { 55+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo } 98 combos after card removal for the flop.
    OK, I have huge issues with this range, but it's set-mine heavy and still too loose for me for UTG+1.
    So I'll try to "balance" this range on this flop: Q 5 J

    Overbet: { KK+,JJ,55,AK,AJ,AT } 21/98 combos
    3/4 PSB: { QQ,TT-66, AQ,KQ } 57/98 combos
    c/c: { AK,AKo (if either is ),AJs } 9/98 combos
    c/f: { ATs (not ),AKs (not or ),AKo (neither is ) } 11/98

    The { TT-66 } can be shifted around for primary adjustments. As they're mostly b/f's.
    Last edited by MadMojoMonkey; 07-14-2013 at 03:40 PM.
  16. #16
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    22c looks good
  17. #17
    When he can continue with a huge range of worse hands, and since he's pretty passive he is flatting pre with stuff like AQ/KQ I'd just go pretty big, something like 25 cents on flop.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    What do you think happens if you bet ~$0.40 here?

    I'd def. overbet this flop with KK+, but overpairs are more vulnerable.
    You're gravely misunderstanding some basic concepts here. You are MUCH better off overbetting it with 55 than you are with KK+.

    With 55, you have damned near the effective nuts, so you want to focus on the strong part of their range and stacking them off; with KK, facing a stronger range increases the amount you're value owning yourself and decreases the amount your value towning villain. Overbetting also makes villain's raising range stronger, which is fine with 55 because, again, we practically have the effective nuts and are never folding, but with KK, we put ourselves in a tough spot if their raising range is nothing but TPTK+ and strong draws.

    Also you're incorrect to think that KK is more vulnerable than 55. A and T certainly suck more for KK than they do for 55, and we still have redraw outs against flushes with 55, but villain has better implied odds to c/c a 3/4 PSB on the flop against our nut range than he does against a hand that will b/f without much thought on a scary turn.

    This is why the basic, oversimplified rule of thumb of bet larger with your best hands, and bet smaller with your more marginal hands holds up so often. It's VERY far from always true, but the fact that the math is heavily handicapped by the fact that the nuts like to face stronger calling ranges, stronger raising ranges and are more concerned with reducing implied odds than you do with good-but-not-nutted-hands makes it so that it holds up kind of often.
  19. #19
    That said, I'm not sure if we want to overbet 55 here either. Just thought I'd offer my 2cs on your thought process.
  20. #20
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    I greatly appreciate it, surviva.

    Here's my reasoning for overbetting KK+: This board is wet as anything, and it's multi-handed. I raised it coming in with a monster (KK+) and now the flop makes a lot of 2nd best hands want to call and a lot of draw hands want to chase. Only a few hands in Villain's range are ahead of the overpair, and most micro-stakes villains will call or fold somewhat regardless of bet-sizing.

    I think overbet/fold is my line OTF w/ KK+ unless I have a read that Villain stacks off very light or likes to c/r bluff with poor equity.
    Whereas overbet/shove is my line with everything else in that range (flopped sets and monster draws).

    Which gets me thinking. Should I have an overbet/fold range? Do you have an overbet/fold range?
  21. #21
    Oh, and no one really answered your question about whether to play this hand. It depends on the table and a tiny little bit on the dynamics. Important things to note with this specific hand are:

    It's gonna suck to play when there are aggressive players to your left. This is very often a fold at higher stakes just because you might often have multiple players to your left who 3b a lot preflop (though it should be players who 3b EP opens a lot; if it's mostly just resteals and squeezes and COvBU and such, then obviously it's not as much of a concern). It's also going to suck against players who flat a lot preflop and then play aggressively post. Even if it's a fish, they're exploiting you with THIS SPECIFIC HAND when they flat pre with the intention of raising/floating/etc a lot post. Sure, we might get a set every so often, but we likely won't get their stack when we do, and they'll win a lot of small and medium-sized pots that doesn't make it worth it.

    And then who is in the blinds is a huge factor. Ideally, you want either players who call too much preflop and then play fit or fold postflop, or you want players who way overcommit themselves to mediocre hands. The former is especially good when you have tight players on your left so that you're kind of preemptively iso'ing someone with exploitable tendencies. You can take down a lot of small pots, and then whenever you commit serious money to the pot, you're doing it with a nut hand.

    It's ideal to PFR bigger in these situations (and steal on the flop for as cheap as you can get away with) to maximize their mistake of calling preflop. This also makes it easier to build a pot postflop for when we hit against a player who doesn't necessarily go bananas with mediocre hands. If you're at a table that's pretty loose and splashy preflop, then having this type of player in the blinds isn't that appealing.

    Against the latter player (players who overcommit to mediocre hands), it's always nice to have position on them with hole cards with nutty potential for obvious reasons. If there's a 30/10 with a 20% F2CB whom you've seen c/c multiple streets with second pair in the BB (and you think they lean heavily toward calling raises in the BB), for example, then the only time we don't want to raise is if there's a reason you think you might not be seeing the flop (eg: 3b'ors to your left, loose players to your left with a squeezer in the SB, etc). Or also if they're shortstacked, obviously.

    In these situations, we want to raise smaller to keep the SPR as large as possible to really maximize on their postflop exploitabilities. A common scenario live, for example, is to have a bunch of players to your left who are passive but love to see the flop, and then have a fish in the blinds who hates to fold their BB and overcommit to mediocre hands, so it is very often a good play to min-open with a hand like this from EP. It is very important to note that when we do this, we're basically surrendering any chance of having strong initiative; players won't put us on a strong hand when we do a "juicer," and the hand's likely gonna end up multi-way anyway with us not necessarily having great position postflop. To help you form a range in this situation, having weak initiative is terrible with a hand like 76s, for example. I guess you could call it a power limp. You're just making it that much less likely that you get raised preflop, while still building the pot enough that you can get stacks in comfortably when you hit.

    Another common scenario to open this hand 3 from the button is when everyone to your left is tight. If at a FR table you have an 8/7, a 12/10 with 3% 3b and a 15/5 with 65% F2CB to your left, then you will be stealing good position with a preflop raise so often, that you effectively have the HJ (or maybe even CO) seat, in which case a raise would be pretty standard. I loathe to say something like "Now you can refer to the handchart and see that 55 would be an open from HJ, and since you effectively have the HJ, just raise raise raise 100% of the time in this situation," but for simplicity's sake, I'll just say that I have to strain to think of a situation (stack sizes, players in the blinds, etc) where I wouldn't raise with those types of players keeping me from the button.

    Sizing might depend (see above to see a couple of examples of how it would differ from my "standard" sizing), but for example, if both of the blinds are regs and we're 100bb effective, then I would probably just go with my standard raise from that position, which would probably be 3bbs at that particular table. Since the two players to my right are so tight, they are likely the type who will be laying their blinds down so much that I'll be min-opening the button ~100%, and then when I'm in the CO, all 3 players left to act will be tight, so I'll probably be going for cheap steals (2.5bbs) from there too with close to 40%+ of my hands, and then I'll feel more comfortable playing a bit looser from MP and EP than I usually am (this hand is an example), so I'll probably be opening no more than 3bbs from any position. This is fine with this hand, not just from a balance standpoint (I would be doing the same with AQ+, and my range from this early is strong even when I'm loosening a bit), but also from an exploitation standpoint (players this tight are generally in set mine or fold mode, so they're not much adjusting to PFR sizes and calling wider to smaller opens).

    Hope that's a good start.
  22. #22
    ^ Preach.

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