Corruption Werewolf

[aubreymcfate]

this post makes wuf look wolf, but whatever

i agree. wuf, you know that we know one of the wolves are immune.. and no matter what, we're not going to breath a complete sigh of relief if i look you up and you flip villager. seems weird that you would press for it.

[wufwugy]

i was reading wufwugy's post thinking it was daven and wondering when daven started sounding exactly like wufwugy. that was a little trippy.

and i understand your point about seer lookups wufwugy, but the fact of the matter is, we know they aren't 100%, and i'd like to have something of a contingency plan that reflects that.

The problem is there is no contingency plan. Special roles that do not have 100% reliability in their powers is rigged.

From the sounds of it, 33% of the wolves will show up as villager to a seer. Between me and Rong, 50% of us are wolves. I don't know how to do the math on that, but if you look up me or Rong, there is a very high probability that your lookup says villager but is on the wolf. But what happens is that the village has to act as if that lookup is 100% accurate

No matter what happens, if Rong is seer'd as a villager, the village will lynch me, and if I'm seer'd as the villager, the village will lynch Rong. But a high percentage of the time, the look up will be false and the village will lose deterministically

Wolves "winning" because of a false seer is not acceptable on principle. If I'm that wolf that shows up as villager, I promise to everybody I will relinquish the win. Winning from riggedness is not winning at all. This kind of shit just pisses me the fuck off

[wufwugy]

this post makes wuf look wolf, but whatever

only if both rong and i are wolves

[aubreymcfate]

i'm horrific at math but i'm pretty sure the probability doesn't simply go to 50% just because you narrowed it down between two people. you still have to take into account the other pool of players.

[aubreymcfate]

only if both rong and i are wolves

[wufwugy]

doing some research on mafia roles. apparently roles in which the mod isnt honest with the players are "bastard roles", and they're thought to be used for the mod's enjoyment instead of the players' enjoyment

fucking jkds

[JKDS]

Is that 5 votes or no?

[wufwugy]

its 6 now

[aubreymcfate]

oh look you guys i found a pic of jkds

[wufwugy]

he taunts. he taunts

[GatorJH]

Is that 5 votes or no?

yes it is.

[rong]

All I've heard from wuf is him bitching and moaning.

Shut the fuck up!

Criticise the game afterwards. Just because you aren't happy with the current game structure doesn't give you the right to spoil it for everyone else. You act like a spoilt child throwing it's toys out the pram.

[rong]

Wolves "winning" because of a false seer is not acceptable on principle. If I'm that wolf that shows up as villager, I promise to everybody I will relinquish the win. Winning from riggedness is not winning at all. This kind of shit just pisses me the fuck off

I actually think this post, and the many like it, should be wuf forfeiting the game for whichever team he's on, even if by chance he's on my team. It's just really low. It's unethical. And it makes you a complete dick.

[rong]

I'd quite like the whole group to discuss this actually. But I'm not sure now is the appropriate time.

[eugmac]

hang on, if rong is wolf and wuf villager then this is 50% chance wolves win with our lynch today. Why are you suggesting this rong?

Yeah, I and Gator have pointed this out already and rong's answer seemed nonsensical.

[eugmac]

rong strong defence on luco, however the defence revolves around gator being a wolf

And it pretty much lets us sleep soundly at night knowing that Gator is nearly never a wolf, right?

[eugmac]

My main problem of this dynamic of "It's me, or it's wuf", says rong, and "It's me or it's rong", says wuf, and both wanting to cast doubt on the veracity of the seer lookup is that even after we look one of them up, we are left doubting if it's a sure thing to lynch the other IF we run badly and one of the lookups is the wolf who shows villager. After all, daven and gator are being considered lock villagers at this point, and nobody so far is really protesting a supa lynch. The end result is that the wuf/rong bickering ensures that villagers are left feeling uneasy about lynching either of them if aubrey's lookup on one of them comes back "villager". The end result of aubrey's lookup coming back "wolf" means that lookup will certainly be lynched, and because of their bickering, the one who wasn't looked up will receive a free pass to the end game.

[JKDS]

A Lynch has been reached!

I apologize for the poor formatting and shortcuts I'm about to take. I'm in Vegas without a working computer, so please bear with it.

Luco has been lynched!

[JKDS]

It was perhaps the darkest day in Gotham. Almost half the city was filled with corruption, and another half was wasting away behind bars. But, it seemed that one individual was taking an unusual amount of pleasure from this pile of trash they were still calling a city. With Lois Lane dead, he loosened up a bit...making the mistake of revealing his true colors to the remaining villagers.

Luco, the mafia prosecutor, was sitting at his desk planning out the next ingenius way to convict more innocent and troublesome townsfolk when they came for him. Unprepared for this encounter Luco was unable to adequately fend off the suspicions amd fear the townsfolk had of him, and was quickly led outside to an old fashioned lynching.

After his death, the town rummaged through his office and was astonished to uncover all the plots Luco wove to get these absurd convictions. Everything from planting evidence, bribing judges, and the threatening of witnesses was uncovered. It was clear to the town that all these men behind bars should all be immediately released.

[JKDS]

But the mafia had other plans. Upon hearing of Luco's death, they knew that the townsfolk would get wise to the little game they were playing. They responded to the threat of a better Gotham by immediately organizing the greatest prison massacre in the history of Gotham. Every single wrongly convicted convict was killed in some way, ensuring that they could never be rereleased into Gotham City.

The town wept. But with one mafia member found, surely his partners would be identified soon. The townsfolk pinned their hearts on this hope, and rightfully so...for the mafia still posed a very real and imminent threat to the sanctity of the city.

[JKDS]

Night is 24 hours. All red names in the dead pool are switched to green, with the word (convict) removed. Luco is revealed to be a red mafia prosecutor

[JKDS]

It was obvious what was going to happen that night. The mob was found out, and the police were after them. It was clear that the noble Commissioner Gordon posed a threat to them, and that he would be next on their string of hits. If Gordon should fall, there was little stopping them from overrunning this town.

The Batman tried desperately to find him, to stop this chain of dominoes from falling. He contacted the police department, shouting "WHERE IS HEEEEEE?", but few people understood what he was saying. He seemed to get lucky with one cop though...

Batman: "WHERE IS HEEEE????"

Crooked Cop: "Who? Oh ya mean Gordon? Yeah, I know where da guy is."

Batman: "WHERE IS HEEEE????"

Crooked Cop: "Hold on, hold on. I think hes at...yeah...hes at 250 52nd street. Whats a matter, Gordon in trouble or somethin?"

-Click-

The Batman raced off to Gordon's supposed location, but couldnt find a soul. He called back...

Batman: "Gordon, WHERE IS HEEE?"

Cop: "Gordon...he....he....he's dead :'( "

Batman: . . .

-Click-

With Gordon dead, the fate of the city was balanced on the edge of a knife. One wrong move, and the city would fall.

The City of Gotham

The Living
Rong
Wufwugy
Gator
Daven
Supa
Eugmac

Living Known Specials
The Batman

The Dead
Chipeaterman, villager, sentenced to death on Day 1. Killed in Jail.
Ong, villager, sentenced to death on night 1. Killed in Jail.
Bigred, villager, sentenced to death on Day 2. Killed in Jail.
Hoopy, villager, sentenced to death on Day 3. Killed in Jail.
Jyms, villager, sentenced to death on night 3. Killed in Jail.
Pascal, villager, sentenced to death on Day 4. Killed in Jail.
Jackvance, aka Lois Lane, villager, sentenced to death on night 4. Killed in Jail.
Luco, Mafia Prosecutor, lynched on Day 5.
Aubrey, aka Commissioner Gordon, murdered on night 5.

Revealed Powers
Lois Lane: Can call superman exactly once to stop a day or night conviction.
Commissioner Gordon: Seer role, but there exists one person who will always show villager.

Day 6 will last 72 hours. With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

It is possible for the mafia to win by NK if one isnt lynched today!

[daven]

wow, looks like the crooked cop can choose a special to block each night?
that's a pretty powerful role. Does that mean that the batman is powerless from now on unless we lynch the crooked cop? guess so.

I have two competing theories right now. One of them involves lynching rong today. one doesn't. i want to clarify my thoughts on things cos it should be possible to figure it out.

Complex game. If gator is wolf then I don't think we can possibly win it, so I'm going to go with the assumption that gator is village. Which means if we just go random then we have a 50% chance of hitting a wolf. And one of them is the crooked cop. Guess it's up to batman to simply protect himself from here on in, and out if we hit the bad cop?

[daven]

thoughts on a quick supa wagon?

[supa]

thoughts on a quick supa wagon?

Would be a good move for the wolves.

[daven]

Would be a good move for the wolves.

who do you think we should be targeting?

[daven]

After his death, the town rummaged through his office and was astonished to uncover all the plots Luco wove to get these absurd convictions. Everything from planting evidence, bribing judges, and the threatening of witnesses was uncovered. It was clear to the town that all these men behind bars should all be immediately released.

bold added for emphasis
surely the village should consider lynching the corrupt judge??

[GatorJH]

I am with wuf now in that this game is too imbalanced in favor of the wolves. Village has to play perfectly to win IMO.

I think we need to lynch Supa today.

[supa]

who do you think we should be targeting?

Wufwugy's mom?

Or you but obv we aren't doing that yet, mebbe never but...

rong seems the best lookup
everyone agree that aubrey is the obvious player to protect tonight?

Special hunt much?

special hunting is something that wolves like to do

Good point.

thoughts on a quick supa wagon?

Why would any villager want a quick wagon today? Only a wolf wants this.

[GatorJH]

Why would any villager want a quick wagon today? Only a wolf wants this.

If the wolves have blocking power AND recruiting power then this game never happened imo. You are a dead wolf walking today so you may as well accept your fate.

[supa]

Gator, no one wants this game over more than I do, trust me on that one. We can end it today by lynching if that's what you'd like.

[supa]

lynching me*

[GatorJH]

yes that is what I like

[supa]

If the wolves have blocking power AND recruiting power then this game never happened imo. You are a dead wolf walking today so you may as well accept your fate.

Took me a minute to understand this. Daven being a wolf doesn't mean there's recruiting. The odds are against it but less so today than yesterday. Can you tell me why he's want a quick lynch if he's a villager?

[supa]

Going to bed.

[daven]

Going to bed.

when you get up, you can explain why you chose not to identify who you think we should be going after. Too much defence, not enough wolf hunting imo

[daven]

who do you think we should be targeting?

Wufwugy's mom?

Or you but obv we aren't doing that yet, mebbe never but...

...

[eugmac]

We've lost our seer, we have to lynch perfect till the end or we lose. Batman powers useless until we bink the right baddie. Baddies still can be one of Gator or Daven who were seered as villagers. I'm ready to just surrender now unless somebody has a solid plan for winning this thing.

[supa]

when you get up, you can explain why you chose not to identify who you think we should be going after. Too much defence, not enough wolf hunting imo

I did identify who I think we should be going after. Can you explain why you're trying to twist my words.

[GatorJH]

We've lost our seer, we have to lynch perfect till the end or we lose. Batman powers useless until we bink the right baddie. Baddies still can be one of Gator or Daven who were seered as villagers. I'm ready to just surrender now unless somebody has a solid plan for winning this thing.

I do, but for the village to win you have to not pwn yourself into fancy play syndrome which means you have to believe Daven and I are villagers. There is no way JKDS would give the wolves blocking power AND recruiting power.

Secondly Batman is not powerless, because he clearly saved Hoopy on night 2. I am not sure how the blocking power works for the wolves, but it can't be bulletproof or they would just block Batman every night.

We lynch Supa today - wolves then target one of myself or Daven (Batman should flip a coin to determine who to protect). If Batman guesses correctly we go into tomorrow with 4 villagers and one wolf which gives us two shots at finding the last wolf between wuf and rong.

I can live with that.

[GatorJH]

I did identify who I think we should be going after. Can you explain why you're trying to twist my words.

And who is that? I missed it as well.

[supa]

when you get up, you can explain why you chose not to identify who you think we should be going after. Too much defence, not enough wolf hunting imo

And where any any of those posts do you see me as defensive? I've defended nothing.

[supa]

And who is that? I missed it as well.

Well I gave 2 choices. Wufwugy's mom and daven.

Obv wufwugy is my top pick but now I don't care. Look at daven, he's such a fucking wolf that knows he can't get lynched it's almost stupid.

[eugmac]

I do, but for the village to win you have to not pwn yourself into fancy play syndrome which means you have to believe Daven and I are villagers. There is no way JKDS would give the wolves blocking power AND recruiting power.

Secondly Batman is not powerless, because he clearly saved Hoopy on night 2. I am not sure how the blocking power works for the wolves, but it can't be bulletproof or they would just block Batman every night.

We lynch Supa today - wolves then target one of myself or Daven (Batman should flip a coin to determine who to protect). If Batman guesses correctly we go into tomorrow with 4 villagers and one wolf which gives us two shots at finding the last wolf between wuf and rong.

I can live with that.

We are not sure if Batman's powers are "thwart baddies" or "protect specified player". If the latter, why do you think Hoopy would be protected? What do you think of Wuf's contention that the suggestion is laughable?

[GatorJH]

We are not sure if Batman's powers are "thwart baddies" or "protect specified player". If the latter, why do you think Hoopy would be protected? What do you think of Wuf's contention that the suggestion is laughable?

Batman was specifically looking for Commish Gordon last night and inless Wuf is Batman (which would actually be pretty funny IMO) then he can't speak to who got protected and why.

[eugmac]

Hm good point about the narrative's implications, even though it is just an implication.

[eugmac]

To be honest, I think for the game's sake, it would be better at the end of the narrative to spell out the events in pure game terms, like "Batman attempted to save X but was roleblocked by X"

[eugmac]

instead of this weird guessing game we have going here. We aren't even 100% sure if it was Hoopy who was saved, if you read back. There's enough grey area to argue he wasn't.

[GatorJH]

instead of this weird guessing game we have going here. We aren't even 100% sure if it was Hoopy who was saved, if you read back. There's enough grey area to argue he wasn't.

You are over complicating shit again. Pls stop.

The verbiage was clear enough to give us enough info to make a rational decision. We should do just that.

[eugmac]

I do, but for the village to win you have to not pwn yourself into fancy play syndrome which means you have to believe Daven and I are villagers. There is no way JKDS would give the wolves blocking power AND recruiting power.

Secondly Batman is not powerless, because he clearly saved Hoopy on night 2. I am not sure how the blocking power works for the wolves, but it can't be bulletproof or they would just block Batman every night.

We lynch Supa today - wolves then target one of myself or Daven (Batman should flip a coin to determine who to protect). If Batman guesses correctly we go into tomorrow with 4 villagers and one wolf which gives us two shots at finding the last wolf between wuf and rong.

I can live with that.

Before Night 2, villagers didn't even know about the existence of a Batman. What makes you think the wolves knew about him?

[eugmac]

What I'm saying is, that's a plausible explanation why Batman wasn't stopped the first time.

[GatorJH]

Before Night 2, villagers didn't even know about the existence of a Batman. What makes you think the wolves knew about him?

That's a good point so yes they may be able to block him tonight. Let's hope that isn't the case.

[daven]

if remaining wolves are [Gator][eug] then gg
however, there needs to be some wolf-hunting. Rong and Wuf are thus far notable by their absence. Supa notable by his 'nou' style posts, but refusal to actually search for wolves.
narrative makes it look like the corrupt cop can block a nominated special role each night, easy choice of lois/jv when he stated his plan to act. Easy block of the angel last night to ensure the seer kill. That's my read on it anyway.

Supa, what are your thoughts on lynching rong today?

[eugmac]

Great, well we have just one special role left so it's a no brainer who to block.

I also note Rong and Wuf being absent to be highly strange.

[eugmac]

Why don't we just stick to roll the dice between rong, supa, and wuf entirely at random and we have a 66% chance of survival. If there are wolves outside of those three I feel it's gg anyway.

[eugmac]

Anybody have a die handy? 1-2 rong. 3-4 wuf. 5-6 supa. let's gamboool.

[eugmac]

Actually I realize that I am probably the best person to roll the die, so let me know if I should do it. Thanks.

[daven]

Why don't we just stick to roll the dice between rong, supa, and wuf entirely at random and we have a 66% chance of survival. If there are wolves outside of those three I feel it's gg anyway.

do you think that combo of [wuf][rong] is just as likely as [wuf][supa] or [rong][supa]?

[daven]

Great, well we have just one special role left so it's a no brainer who to block.

if we hit a wolf then it's 50% on it being the one who can block. And then he's gone. So can't block. Assuming that we're right about corrupt cop having a nighttime role block

[eugmac]

I don't think we can count out the [rong][wuf] combo possibility, although we can give it a smaller weighting if you feel it's a more realistic way to draw. We can do a series of rolls or draw cards out of a deck or whatever.

[eugmac]

As in do one draw/roll to pick one of the 3 combos, and then coinflip to choose one of them.

[eugmac]

It's at least a sure way to ensure they can't talk us into anything.

[eugmac]

As a starting point:

[rong][wuf] 20% probability
[rong][supa] 40% probability
[wuf][supa] 40% probability

What are your weightings daven and gator?

[daven]

I think that coinflipping/card drawing is a bad approach here. I would like to hear what they have to say. And, somehow, i'm the only one who isn't 100% on you being village. But I think you would be a terrible lynch today. And you're probably village

[eugmac]

Even if we don't random chance it in the end, what would your weighting be?

[daven]

Even if we don't random chance it in the end, what would your weighting be?

more likely to be accurate after we see the others posting
right now i'm thinking wolf likelihood supa>rong>wuf

[GatorJH]

And, somehow, i'm the only one who isn't 100% on you being village. But I think you would be a terrible lynch today. And you're probably village

This, but if he is wolf and wins playing that style then most excellent gg.

I want to review some stuff before I post my final percentages, but right now it would be

supa/rong - 50%
supa/wuf - 40%
wuf/rong - 10%

[wufwugy]

I don't have much to add. I don't really even know what to add because, from my perspective, this was solved early in Day 5. I think Eugmac is almost never a wolf, and Gator and Daven are off limits because the seer accuracy percentage is too high. This leaves 3 out of the 4 in Wuf Rong Supa Luco. For me, this is easy because I know what my role is. For everybody else, I think it all boils down to doing the logistics.

I'll recap with the most important dynamics


Wuf went after Luco. Rong did not, he even defended Luco quite a bit. After Wuf bolded Luco, Rong bolded Wuf. Supa also never went after Luco, and has gone after Wuf all game. This makes a whole lot of sense if the team is Rong Supa Luco

If the team is Wuf Rong Luco, then why is Supa still alive? This would mean that both Wuf and Rong wanted Supa dead along with just about every other player. This means that if the team is Wuf Rong Luco then the game would already be over because villager-Supa would have been lynched yesterday

If the team is Wuf Supa Luco, then why did Wuf deny targeting Gator and instead target Luco? Rong was targeting Gator instead of Luco, and with the wolf team and Rong, that makes 4 votes against villager-Gator, which would have been enough. Keep in mind that Wuf was virtually the only player pointing out that the seer accuracy makes Gator off limits. It's not a coincidence that Rong and Supa have had to keep "being suspicious" of Gator and Daven even after the seer lookups


Those are the only 3 viable explanations I see for the behavior of the wolf team, and the 2 iterations that contain me don't make much sense. If me and Rong are wolves then Supa would be dead? If me and Supa are wolves then why did I stomp out Luco instead of trying to win on Day 5? Contrast those strange plays with the Rong Supa Luco team, where I attacked Luco a bunch, Rong defended Luco a bunch, then after I bolded Luco, Rong bolded me. With 2 iterations down, this leaves 1: Rong Supa Luco

What I think the village needs to do is decide on a fully fleshed out plan for Lynch 6 and Lynch 7. We will lose a valuable villager tonight, and in order to win on Day 7, it will require 100% of the remaining 3 villagers to have the same opinion. You have my opinion: the last two are Rong and Supa and I'm always lynching them both.

Also, I think the "hard" lynch needs to be made today. That's either me or Rong, not Supa. The reason for this is that Supa showing up as wolf provides no information. Like literally zero information. The reason is that both me and Rong were consistent about wanting him dead, and the final decision will be between him and me. If Supa dies today, we'll find that all we learned is an extra villager was killed during the Night

[daven]

Also, I think the "hard" lynch needs to be made today. That's either me or Rong, not Supa. The reason for this is that Supa showing up as wolf provides no information. Like literally zero information. The reason is that both me and Rong were consistent about wanting him dead, and the final decision will be between him and me. If Supa dies today, we'll find that all we learned is an extra villager was killed during the Night

disagree
what if supa is a corrupt cop who can block batman overnight, but he can't cos he's dead. And then batman manages to block the wolves. Then we're in a nicer spot to make a difficult decision.

this post from you increases the [rong][wuf] likelihood at least a little...

[daven]

to clarify, if you argue for lynching one of you (rong/wuf) today, then the one of you remaining tomorrow becomes close to bulletproof. It wouldn't be a terrible line to suggest if you are both wolves..

[wufwugy]

to clarify, if you argue for lynching one of you (rong/wuf) today, then the one of you remaining tomorrow becomes close to bulletproof. It wouldn't be a terrible line to suggest if you are both wolves..

You can write that theory off because if it was true Supa would already be dead

[daven]

what if supa is a corrupt cop who can block batman overnight, but he can't cos he's dead. And then batman manages to block the wolves. Then we're in a nicer spot to make a difficult decision.

wuf, thoughts on this?

[wufwugy]

disagree
what if supa is a corrupt cop who can block batman overnight, but he can't cos he's dead. And then batman manages to block the wolves. Then we're in a nicer spot to make a difficult decision.

this post from you increases the [rong][wuf] likelihood at least a little...

I have half a mind that Batman can't protect others in the first place. If this is true, I explain the Night 2 protect as the wolves targeting Batman himself, and the narrative JKDS has put up as being just a regular narrative. The "WHERE IS HE?!!" thing is from the movie after all. Batman doesn't have to be denied a protect in order for JKDS to write that up. Also I have half a mind that the corrupt cop is the recruit and Rong is recruited way more often than Supa

[wufwugy]

Besides, if Supa's the last remaining wolf, he's not going to put much effort into convincing the village to lynch somebody else. Rong (and I), however, would be more likely to do that

[daven]

Re JV's post earlier, here's my thoughts on everyone, in order of most favoured lynch:

Gator - I think I've made myself pretty clear here. I think he fucked up as a wolf and talked himself out of it because people are reluctant to lynch the great Gator. I get he won't be lynched today, but he's my favoured lynch and will be unless new info come to light.

Daven - His list and bold of Eug was really odd and made me suspicious in the first place. Then there's his whole part in the pascal derailment and switch tgo hoopy. The whole thing looked dodge, especially his backtracking on the hoopy wagon that he was a huge part of starting whilst leaving his bold on him anyway. Eug summed his behaviour up at that time perfectly and so much has happened since that we seem to have forgotten about it.

The next three are all equally worthy lynches.

Pascal - Going AWOL, barely involved before, more involved now, but blatantly going to be a liability if left until end game as he just missed too much. Also, based on some of his posts today he is likely to misinterpret things. Could also easily be a wolf but I have no read that says so as he hasn't posted enough.

Supa - Just coasting by, not adding much value, could very easily be a wolf. He hasn't really posted much of note at all. The only thing that stops him being higher up my list is his consistency which is hard to pull off as a wolf and I believe him when he says he is working lots and wouldn't pull that shit as a wolf. That's not to say the working long hours means he isn't a wolf, just that I genuinely believe he wouldn't lie about it to excuse him flying under the radar, and putting less effort in to the game makes it even harder to be consistent if you're lying.

Aubrey - Meh, hasn't done anything to make me think anything. She hasn't given off a wolfy vibe, but hasn't been involved enough to even allow me to form an opinion and seems very neutral all the time. Could easily be an under the radar wolf.

Wufwugy - I don't know why, but I don't really think he's a wolf. I considered it for a while. I mean he's been different this game and I did have that post tying him to Pascal if Pascal's a wolf, but overall I just get the feeling he's a villager. This may be because he's like the only person also still bolding gator and that has subconsciously left me feeling aligned with him. Also, I don't buy his ego letting him slate the game structure if he is a wolf as he won't want to piss on his potential fire.

Luco - Almost certain he's a villager. He has played really similar to last game and I feel I have a strong villager read on him, possibly as his soul's still in my pocket from last game. He hasn't done anything that has stood out as wolfy to me.

Eugmac - Defo a villager, no way a noob posts that much (I mean seriously, look at the post count!) as a wolf and doesn't fuck up real bad. I won't be lynching him at any point. He's also been providing lots of content and seems to be a valuable villager.

JV - Defo a villager, will be proved by the superman thing, but I don't buy him fake outing in that way otherwise.

fascinating post.