@Griffey: In hand 1, are we just check/folding turn, or check/calling and c/folding river? I feel like while he has a lot of Ax in his preflop range, on the river he probably only valueshoves AJ+/AT/sets. And that he will have a lot of draws, pocket pairs, floats that he can turn into a bluff here. But there are quite a few combos of Ax (even if only AJ+), that he might not be bluffing even close to often enough.