10NL 45s BU

[mondayscool]

Thanks all for the feedback and discussion. From what I gather the consensus is fold here pre, and if we're in this spot we're checking back the turn for max eV.

CLIFFS: I'd fold pre. Stop focusing on your hand, and focus on how to exploit villain.

So in order of exploit villain, what should our range look like here to continue?

I'll throw out my ideas and hopefully someone will destroy my logic.

Call: Like 77-JJ, AJs-AQs, AQo, KQs because these hands will play well vs. his range postflop and we'll often have the best hand at showdown.
4bet value: QQ+, AKs, AKo because value.
4bet bluff: ??

I'm a bit at a loss ATM where the suited broadways should fit into my range here and what kind of range I should be 4bet bluffing if at all, so I'll have to start where we should always start, villain's range.


Due to our small sample size lets assume that villain's 3b from blinds is 10% rather than 16%.

So he's 3betting pre something like TT+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ (138 combos)

Lets assume he continues to a 4bet with something like JJ+, AQs+, AKo (44 combos)

This gives us roughly 68% fold equity on a 4bet bluff. Say we 3x his raise to $3.

(bet/(bet+pot)) = (2.7/(2.7+1.4)) = 0.66 = 66%

Assuming my logic and math is correct this leaves us with a slightly +eV 4bet bluffing opportunity. Where I'm a bit lost is how often this means we should be 4bet bluffing? I'll do some looking around in the digest see if I can find anything relevant, but for now I'll finish off the rest of my range.

I think that a lot of the suited broadways we can fit into the calling range as they'll flop well a lot of the time and play decently vs. villain's range. Or perhaps we should be folding the bottom of the suited connectors calling the top... maybe vice versa.

Should we be polarizing the 4betting range in this spot? As in 4betting for value like QQ+, AK, then 4betting lower hands like suited connectors, say something like 67s-9Ts, 68s-8Ts?

[rpm]

4bet bluffing opportunity. Where I'm a bit lost is how often this means we should be 4bet bluffing? I'll do some looking around in the digest see if I can find anything relevant, but for now I'll finish off the rest of my range.

as best as i know, there is no "right" answer to this. if you're in some spot where you decide you have a profitable 4b bluff, then how many combos you put in your "4b bluff" range depends on how heavily you want to exploit your opponents. or, if you wanted you could probably figure out an unexploitable 4b range size and use that. afraid i can't help you there though. it's at this point that poker maths starts to confuse me

[surviva316]

. . .

Some flaws:

- Your 3b'ing range for villain is too linear. He might be more likely to 3b 76s than he is to 3b KJo.

- You're not going to find the answer to "How much should I 4b bluff a given player" by looking at the eV maths for how profitable it is to bluff them. Once you determine that it's profitable to 4b bluff any hand in a vacuum, it's a matter of 1) determining how much 4b bluffing you can get away with before they start to exploit you, then 2) culling the top x% of profitable situations to bluff (x being however much you can get away with).

- It's wrong to determine what those most profitable situations are simply by considering if your range should be polarized or not. If there's any sort of dynamism to his 3b range and how he's going to react to 4b's, then it's at least possible in theory to tailor your 4b bluffs for spots where villains' ranges best suit bluffing. People who are really good at reading dynamics will be good at picking spots with all sorts of hands in this instance.

If the above doesn't apply, then you'll have to be choosy about what hands you're doing this with. Since in this particular instance, we're rarely going to see a flop once we 4b (villain will usually shove or fold), postflop playability shouldn't be much of a criteria. Having good blockers is much better. Axo is a good candidate for this; if you don't have Axs in your flatting range, then it's all the better for 4b'ing with.

- I get the sense you might be undervaluing the difference between 54s and JTs. If villain has any sort of suited connects/Axs/low-to-mid pairs in his range, then you're going to win a lot more pair vs pair hands with higher suited connecters. Both players are usually playing for a cheap showdown in those types of hands, so even though hitting a ten on an AT5 board might not sound like a huge difference, it will come into play a lot.

- Probably a lesser point, but it is possible to have a 4b/call for protection range. I mean, I can't really wrap my head around whether this qualifies as a range merge, in which case it's technically just a 4b/call light for value range, but I don't know, whatever, this is just a way of saying there are other ways to protect your 4b bluffs.

[mondayscool]

As always all the replies and advice are much appreciated.

re: surviva all very good points that I'm trying to digest, however,

...
1) determining how much 4b bluffing you can get away with before they start to exploit you, then 2) culling the top x% of profitable situations to bluff (x being however much you can get away with).
...

Having a little trouble getting my head around this. Not really sure what you mean by the top x% of profitable situations? Wouldn't we want to cull the least profitable parts of our 4bet bluffing range if villain starts to exploit us and keep the top?

[Pelion]

Thats what he means. K8s is better to bluff with than K8o

[mondayscool]

Yeah chatted in IRC makes a lot more sense now thanks