[10NL] 99 underpair wants to bluff 3 way

[Pelion]

Thoughts on flop and river?

Both villains are nits. I have more than 100 hands on each of them.

MP is 21/7/1AF with a 50% cbet.
BB is 17/3/0.5AF


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, €0.10 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
SB (€10)
BB (€9.18)
UTG (€5.80)
MP (€10.15)
Hero (CO) (€17.12)
Button (€12.82)
Preflop: Hero is CO with ,
1 fold, MP bets €0.30, Hero calls €0.30, 2 folds, BB calls €0.20
Flop: (€0.95) , , (3 players)
BB checks, MP bets €0.70, Hero calls €0.70, BB calls €0.70
Turn: (€3.05) (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero checks
River: (€3.05) (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets €2


My thoughts:

Flop.

My flop call is boarderline, but I don't think it's terrible. MP cbets fairly large on a dry board into 2 players, and he rarely cbets. He certainly won't do this with all of the hands I'm beating, but I have position and almost top pair and I don't ever expect a second barrel without a hand. BB is probably set mining and will fold most of the time anyway, and even if he doesn't I still at least have position.

River

It now looks unlikely either of these guys have an A. MP might not even have cbet Ax, and both of them should have bet it by now if they have it. I don't think either of them ever slowplay TT/5x this long.

Its hard for me to really rep anything, even Ax, but I don't think these guys are thinking about that enough for it to matter.

Turn 99 into a bluff?

[The Bean Counter]

Flop is a fold for me multiway vs a nit's oop cbet and BB still to act.

As played, bet turn. If checking turn, check river behind for showdown value as you rep nothing and you'll get looked up by a bunch of hands that beat us (even against nits).

[Malbrack]

If they don't think you have an ace either, then what better hands are you getting to fold or worse to call? Would your bet get one of them to fold JJ, JTs, or KTs? (And would they even have JTs or KTs?) Or would one of them call with 88?

[Savy]

I don't understand what better hands you get to fold out. I don't think any weak Ace type hand will get folded and I wouldn't be surprised if someone called with a pair of Tens with a good kicker. Not to mention any JJ-KK type hand, although it's likely they'd have 3bet they are very passive so it could still be in their range.

Surely you have plenty of value checking behind anyway?

[Cobra_1878]

I'm not sure 21/7 classifies as a nit? Certainly passive, but not sure if that's nitty.

I check behind on the river as well.

[Pelion]

I'm not sure 21/7 classifies as a nit? Certainly passive, but not sure if that's nitty.

Reads don't come from stats. Reads come from playing hands with people and paying attention. They are nits.

[Pelion]

I don't understand what better hands you get to fold out. I don't think any weak Ace type hand will get folded

A weak A is never folding. The question is, how often do you think they have Ax or better, and how often will they fold KK-/Tx or worse?

[Savy]

A weak A is never folding. The question is, how often do you think they have Ax or better, and how often will they fold KK-/Tx or worse?

Almost never folding it imo hence why i think checking is best.

They need to both fold about 63% for it to have a very slight +EV.

Whereas even if you only win 10% of the time when you check that's miles more +EV.

If they both fold 75% of the time, you need to have 28% equity against their ranges for checking to be more +EV.

(Assuming you always lose when called, which is very likely)

[rpm]

flop call is fine imo. even nits CB un-connected rainbow paired boards with their overcards. i see no reason to bluff the river. i think we have enough SD value given how little interest anyone has

[rpm]

plus Tx may look you up because you rep nothing. as people have said

[Icanhastreebet]

If you are going to start a bluff here do it on the turn. Also they are either A) giving up or B) have Tx so I would almost certainly start a bluff here at a pretty high frequency especially when we have one of the worst hands we can possibly have in our range that probably wins on the river a super low % at this point.

[daviddem]

As has been said, I don't think they fold KK-Tx otr given the action so far. If you want to rep an A, do it ott but if you are called ott I think it's unlikely you get any folds otr (with this river card).

I would tend to agree that 99 rarely wins otr when the hand is checked down. This would have to be MP cbetting overcards or an underpair, and BB c/c overcards or an underpair otf after the cbet and your call, which is rather unlikely if he is a nit. Plus the flop overcards in their ranges should have no A.

[supa]

Def fire turn if you're gonna bluff this spot.

[Icanhastreebet]

As has been said, I don't think they fold KK-Tx otr given the action so far. If you want to rep an A, do it ott but if you are called ott I think it's unlikely you get any folds otr (with this river card).

I would tend to agree that 99 rarely wins otr when the hand is checked down. This would have to be MP cbetting overcards or an underpair, and BB c/c overcards or an underpair otf after the cbet and your call, which is rather unlikely if he is a nit. Plus the flop overcards in their ranges should have no A.

I think if we get called ott we can barrel the river if we get 1caller and that caller calls fairly quickly. This is a pretty standard spot to c/c weaker then Ax(no one thinks about these decisions) and if they already checked quickly and ALSO c/c fairly quickly we pretty much have the easiest river overbet in the history of poker.

edit: Villains being nits helps a tonne here obv. if they are going to station KK and some fraction of Tx no matter what we bet then it's obviously a terrible spot to bluff. If they are nitty enough we can probably get folds 100% of the time.

Disclaimer: You should almost never being attempting this unless you have very good reasons as to why you think it's a good play. Don't just randomly overbet because you think villains range is weak.

[Micro2Macro]

If you are going to start a bluff here do it on the turn. Also they are either A) giving up or B) have Tx so I would almost certainly start a bluff here at a pretty high frequency especially when we have one of the worst hands we can possibly have in our range that probably wins on the river a super low % at this point.

this this this

you're at the bottom of our range on this turn and it checked to you, so as a default I would bluff away. you can credibly rep AT+/TT/55, A5s and potentially fold out JJ+

if they call down like JT, take note, adjust. just don't forget to bet river too

[griffey24]

MP is going to c/c you with JJ-KK here for sure. BB can have some weirdly played 5x or boat I feel.

You really don't rep anything here. What hand do you have that would check back the turn and now bet this river?

T's full maaaybe. 5x would bet the turn. AT would bet the turn. AQ/AJ that floated flop would bet the turn.

I agree with the comments saying if you want to bluff start it on the turn, otherwise just take the showdown here.