[10NL] 99 underpair wants to bluff 3 way

Originally Posted by daviddem

As has been said, I don't think they fold KK-Tx otr given the action so far. If you want to rep an A, do it ott but if you are called ott I think it's unlikely you get any folds otr (with this river card).

I would tend to agree that 99 rarely wins otr when the hand is checked down. This would have to be MP cbetting overcards or an underpair, and BB c/c overcards or an underpair otf after the cbet and your call, which is rather unlikely if he is a nit. Plus the flop overcards in their ranges should have no A.

I think if we get called ott we can barrel the river if we get 1caller and that caller calls fairly quickly. This is a pretty standard spot to c/c weaker then Ax(no one thinks about these decisions) and if they already checked quickly and ALSO c/c fairly quickly we pretty much have the easiest river overbet in the history of poker.

edit: Villains being nits helps a tonne here obv. if they are going to station KK and some fraction of Tx no matter what we bet then it's obviously a terrible spot to bluff. If they are nitty enough we can probably get folds 100% of the time.

Disclaimer: You should almost never being attempting this unless you have very good reasons as to why you think it's a good play. Don't just randomly overbet because you think villains range is weak.